长江巨洪的强信号探讨

分析了1900年以来长江3次巨洪的3个强信号：(1)太阳黑子活动，(2)厄尔尼诺事件，(3)青藏高原南部大震，它们对大气环流异常的影响分别称为日气作用、海气作用、地气作用，依据长江巨洪和3个强信号的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律，指出当3个强信号的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，如果再叠加其它信号，长江发生巨洪的量级更大，这对长江巨洪的超长期预期具有重要的指示作用。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

甘肃春季(3～5月)沙尘暴成因分析

甘肃春季(3～5月)沙尘暴小波变换分析清楚地反映了甘肃春季沙尘暴不同时间尺度周期振荡的交替作用。甘肃中西部自20世纪80年代以来变暖,其变暖与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)密切相关。甘肃春季沙尘暴与甘肃中西部热力因子和降水研究表明,当冬季冷空气活动频繁,春季气温回升快,气温波动幅度大,降水偏少,甘肃春季容易发生沙尘暴。     

长春台磁暴特征研究

依据长春地震台记录的磁暴资料,系统总结了第19、20、21三个太阳活动周磁暴特征,并对全球M_s≥7.8级地震的发生与太阳黑子活动、磁暴的关系进行了初步探讨。     

月球节点和太阳黑子活动与马边地区地震活动关系探讨

本文对月球每隔18．6年循环达其运行轨道最北节点N周期位置，和太阳黑子活动周期位相与马边－雷波－屏山区域地震活动的关系进行研究分析，发现，本区发生M≥3．6，级地震的“月－地”关系背景年，以及在“月－地”关系北景年对应的太阳黑子活动周期位相的特定条件下，存在因受特大黑子活动事件，引起太阳磁场极性变化的半周期和全周期为时间尺度的“日－月－地”高相关年的转折变异，激发本区破坏性地震或震群发生的时间规律，并用于对本区未来M≥5级地震活动的中期，短期预报。     

松花江干流（哈尔滨段）春季最低水位预测方法

利用1949~2003年松花江(哈尔滨段)最低水位资料,分析松花江干流(哈尔滨段)春季最低水位变化规律和典型枯水年成因,分析了其与松花江、嫩江等松花江流域面雨量的相关性,与拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子等的关系。以松花江、嫩江、第二松花江流域7~11月面雨量总和及前一年松花江干流(哈尔滨段)最高水位为因子,预测2004~2013年松花江干流(哈尔滨段)最低水位。利用方差周期方法、均生函数方法对2004~2013年拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子及松花江、嫩江、第二松花江流域月面雨量进行预测,并以此预测对2004~2013年松花江干流(哈尔滨段)最低水位进行订正,得出预测结论。     

太阳活动变化的小波分析

结合太阳活动变化分析,介绍了Morlet小波变换方法在气象时间序列周期分析和突变分析中的应用,对太阳黑子活动得出了一些有意义的结果。分析发现,太阳活动存在14.5 a和106 a的变化周期,其中14.5 a周期最为显著。太阳活动强弱变化存在一定的阶段性,在近258 a发生过6次突变。     

流感世界大流行的气候特征

流感爆发与气候的剧烈变化有关。本文揭示了拉马德雷冷位相、拉尼娜、太阳黑子极值年、厄尔尼诺、低温冷害、沙尘暴、潮汐南北震荡异常与流行性感冒世界大流行相互对应的关系及其物理机制,对气候及其相关灾害的预测有重大科学意义。规律表明,在拉马德雷冷位相时期,全球强震、低温、飓风伴随拉尼娜、全球性流感伴随厄尔尼诺将越来越强烈。面对日益增大的全球灾害,长期气候预报意义重大。     

Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities

The relations between sunspot numbers and earthquakes (M≧6), solar 10.7 cm radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes have been analyzed in this paper. It has been found that: (1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the solar polar regions is reversed. (2) the earthquake frequency in the minimum period of solar activity is closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others. (3) As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper, the simple physical discussion has been carried out. These results supported the exploration and studies of some researchers to a certain extent. This work is supported by Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (major item).     

Dependence of Atmospheric Transparency Variations on Solar Activity

The atmospheric spectral transparency variations at 344 nm and 369 nm, averaged at eight Soviet stations between 69°N and 55°N, have been compared with sunspot numbers, or Wolf numbers (WN). The data were taken for the seasonal interval May-August during the period 1972 – 1989. Good negative correlations –0.76 and –0.82 have been found. The correlation coefficient between aerosol extinction at 344 nm and WN is equal to +0.75. Insignificant correlation is found for the transparency variations at 344 nm for stations situated to the south of latitude 50°. The best correlation with WN for both transparency and aerosol extinction at northern stations occurs for the shift of WN ahead of the optical parameters by 6 months. The connection of transparency with cosmic rays in Apatity is also examined. It displays a sign opposite to that for WN, smaller values of the correlation coefficient, and an improbable shift of transparency ahead of cosmic ray intensity. The relative changes of the transparency during a solar cycle can be evaluated at 10% in the ozone-free UVA region