成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。     

Pressure prediction in the Bullwinkle Basin through petrophysics and flow modeling (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico)

Reservoir pressures within the Bullwinkle minibasin (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico continental slope) increase at a hydrostatic gradient whereas pressures predicted from porosity within mudstones bounding these reservoirs increase at a lithostatic gradient: they are equal at a depth 1/3 of the way down from the crest of the structure. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state flow models demonstrate that bowl-shaped structures will have lower pressures than equivalent two-dimensional structures and that if a low permeability salt layer underlies the basin, the pressure is reduced. We conclude that at Bullwinkle, pressure is reduced due to an underlying salt body and the bowl-shape of the basin. A geometric approach to predict sandstone pressure is to assume that the reservoir pressure equals the area-weighted average of the mudstone pressure. When the mudstone pressure gradient is constant, as at Bullwinkle, the reservoir pressure equals the mudstone pressure at the average depth (centroid) of the reservoir.     

Filters for linear sea-wave prediction

Deterministic sea-wave prediction (DSWP) models are appearing in the literature designed for quiescent interval prediction in marine applications dominated by large swell seas. The approach has focused upon spectral methods which are straightforward and intuitively attractive. However, such methods have the disadvantage that while the sea is aperiodic in nature, the standard discrete spectral processing techniques force an absolutely periodic structure onto the resulting sea surface prediction models. As it is the shape of the sea surface that is important in such applications, particularly near the end of the domain which is important, the standard windowing techniques used in signal processing work to reduce leakage artifacts cannot be employed. This has necessitated the use of end matching methods that can be both inconvenient and may reduce the fraction of the time for which legitimate predictions are available. As a result, an investigation has been undertaken of the use of finite impulse response prediction filters to provide the necessary dispersive phase shifting required in DSWP systems. The present work examines the theoretical basis for such filters and explores their properties together with their application to both long and short crested swell seas. It is shown that wide band forms of such filters are only convergent in the sense of distributions having both infinite duration impulse responses and asymptotically divergent first derivatives. However, appropriate band limitation can produce useful finite impulse responses allowing implementation via standard discrete convolution methods. It is demonstrated that despite the prediction filters having a non-causal impulse response such filters can be used in practice due to a combination of the asymmetric nature of the impulse response and the fundamental nature of the prediction process. The findings are confirmed against actual sea-wave data.     

基于神经网络的平底结构砰击压力预报

对利用神经网络预报平底结构入水砰击压力的方法进行了探讨。首先利用仿真软件计算各种情况下平底结构入水所产生的砰击压力，以此形成训练神经网络的数据集。其次利用数据集对三层反馈式网络进行了训练，讨论了不同隐含层节点数对该非线性系统的拟合能力，并且对梯度下降法、动量修正法和基于优化的LM算法的有效性和精度进行了比较，最后得出了适合平底结构入水砰击系统的网络结构。     

渤海、黄海强温跃层数值预报模式

文中对前人关于水温垂直结构计算、模拟和预报研究成果进行了评价，并在此基础上建立了考虑海面吸收辐射和透射辐射、地形、风、海流、界面摩擦及其引起的混合作用的强温跃层三维数值预报模式。该模式运行的驱动量仅为风和气温场资料，因而具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报的结果看，效果是令人满意的。     

能量分析在台风短期预报业务中的应用

本文以９４１４、９４１５号两个连续北上台风为例，证明能量场的分布与台风移向有着明显的对应关系。     

GIS在处置地下管线突发事件中的应用研究——以苏州市地下综合管网应急处置系统为例

随着经济社会的不断发展,城市建设步伐不断加快。近几年,各类地下管线突发事件频发。通过"苏州市地下综合管网应急处置系统"项目的开发和实践,本文试图从总体上论述地下综合管网突发事件的处置过程、应用原理及相关的技术实现,重点阐述了基于"12345"便民服务中心工作平台,在充分利用GIS的网络分析技术的基础上,实现城市地下管网突发事件应急处置的自动化和信息化。     

Formation Dynamics and Quantitative Prediction of Hydrocarbons of the Superpressure System in the Dongying Sag

Based on the theory of formation dynamics of oil/gas pools, the Dongying sag can be divided into three dynamic systems regarding the accumulation of oil and gas： the superpressure closed system, the semi-closed system and the normal pressure open system. Based on the analysis of genesis of superpressure in the superpressure closed system and the rule of hydrocarbon expulsion, it is found that hydrocarbon generation is related to superpressure, which is the main driving factor of hydrocarbon migration. Micro fractures formed by superpressure are the main channels for hydrocarbon migration. There are three dynamic patterns for hydrocarbon expulsion： free water drainage, hydrocarbon accumulation and drainage through micro fissures. In the superpressure closed system, the oil-driving-water process and oil/gas accumulation were completed in lithologic traps by way of such two dynamic patterns as episodic evolution of superpressure systems and episodic pressure release of faults. The oil-bearing capacity of lithologic traps is intimately related to reservoir-forming dynamic force. Quantitative evaluation of dynamic conditions for pool formation can effectively predict the oil-bearing capability of traps.     

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。     

Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence.