“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

光照、温度对黑鲷(♀)×真鲷(♂)杂交子代受精卵孵化效果的影响

为了研究不同光照强度、温度对黑鲷(Acantho pagrusschlegelii)(♀)×真鲷(Pagrosomus major)(♂)杂交F1代受精卵孵化效果及仔鱼存活的影响,作者采用试验生态学的方法比较不同温度(16、18、20、22、24、26℃)下杂交鲷受精卵的孵化率、畸形率、孵化时间、7日龄仔鱼的存活率;比较不同光照强度下(10、100、300、800、1500、4 000、10 000 lx)受精卵孵化率、畸形率、孵化时间;比较不同光照强度下(200、1 000、2 000、5 000、10 000、15 000、20 000 lx)7日龄仔鱼的存活率。结果表明:在盐度为22条件下,受精卵最高孵化率(34.00%)和最低畸形率(16.65%)的孵化温度为20℃;在16～26℃范围内,温度与孵化时间呈负相关,与7日龄仔鱼存活率也呈负相关。不同的光照强度对受精卵孵化率和孵化时间的影响不显著,孵化率为65.88%～71.88%;但大于800lx的光照会令畸形率上升(大于15.21%);另外,5000～10000lx的光照强度更适宜仔鱼生存,7日龄仔鱼存活率达到38%～40.75%。黑鲷(♀)×真鲷(♂)杂交子代最佳孵化温度为20℃,最适光照强度为5 000～10 000 lx。     

基于连续帧间差分的抛弃式探头三维下沉运动处理方法研究

抛弃式探头由无人机装载,能够在较远目标区域和危险海域开展海洋水文环境剖面参数的测量。通过安装不同传感器,可以实现对温度、盐度的剖面测量,其深度的测量采用数学方法计算得到。针对双摄像机水箱实验获得的5个不同攻角实验结果,分析了常用的运动目标的检测方法,最终选择基于连续帧间差分法,确定探头的三维坐标位置,进而得到探头下沉运动的三维运动轨迹和速度曲线等信息。探头从水面释放后攻角在下沉过程中不断调整,改变运动姿态,同时伴随自身的旋转,抵消水平方向阻力作用,初始攻角产生的深度测量误差主要体现在加速过程,探头达到匀速运动后测量误差不变,在不考虑横流的情况下,探头最后以匀速垂直下落运动。     

中国草畜平衡状态时空演变指示的草地生态保护格局

中国草原牧区作为重要生态安全屏障和草地畜牧业生产基地,其草畜平衡状态直接影响草地退化与恢复,进而影响草地生态系统服务能力的强弱。本文分析了2000—2015年主要草原牧区草地植被覆盖、牧草供给、草畜平衡状态的时空变化特征,深入探讨草地退化与恢复及载畜压力下草地生态系统保护与恢复空间格局。结果表明：过去16年主要草原牧区草地面积净减少约163万hm²,6.7%的草地出现植被覆盖退化,而5.4%的草地呈现植被覆盖明显恢复。天然草地牧草供给量以增加为主,年增率约0.3 kg/hm²,然而其载畜压力亦持续增加,不考虑补饲的载畜压力指数高达3.8,除内蒙古东北部、青藏高原中部仍有载畜潜力,其余多处于超载状态;考虑实际冷季补饲的载畜压力指数约3.1,内蒙古中东部有所缓解;假设冷季全额补饲则载畜压力指数减至1.9,内蒙古、青藏高原等区域明显缓解。叠加上述数据,本文针对自然保护地、牧区、半农半牧区和农区等不同区域的草地生态保护格局,提出了平衡草地生态保护与畜牧生产利用的不同发展策略。     

基于自然资源管理的新型基础测绘研究

新一轮的职能改革赋予自然资源部门新的职责,文章在分析了现有自然资源业务数据和基础测绘数据的基础上结合自然资源管理需求,提出了新型基础测绘的相关技术要求、应用方向和地理实体数据的技术路线,为新型基础测绘的开展提供了有益探索,为基础测绘服务自然资源管理提供了理论依据。     

Basin filling evolution of the central basins of Mallorca since the Pliocene

A new compilation of data from 436 drill cores using decompaction and backstripping techniques was used to reconstruct the basin filling history from the Pliocene until the present day in the Palma, Inca and Sa Pobla Basins on the island of Mallorca (Spain). Calcareous rocks dominate the source area and provide a limited amount of clastic input to the basins that has resulted in an average accumulation rate of between 5 and 20 m/Ma during the last 5.3 Ma. Carbonate sediment production dominated the basin filling history during early‐mid Pliocene, but during the Quaternary, the sedimentation processes in the Palma Basin were probably enhanced by an evolution in the drainage network that increased the sediment supply and the accumulated thickness caused by stream capture. However, the maximum sedimentation rate filling the depocentres of the three basins has been decreasing since the Pliocene, showing that not only the catchment transport efficiency but also the relative sea level have been controlling the sediment accumulation in these carbonate basins. The isopach cross‐sections support the idea that a palaeorelief was generated during the Messinian sea level drop and that heterogeneities were filled in from the Pliocene to the Quaternary. We conclude that the central basins of Mallorca were filled heterogeneously due to tectonic and geomorphic processes that controlled sediment transport and production, resulting in different average sedimentation thicknesses that decreased since the Pliocene as the accommodation space became filled and the relative sea level dropped.     

Fully coupled elastoplastic hydro-mechanical analysis of unsaturated porous media using a meshfree method

This paper presents the first application of an advanced meshfree method, ie, the edge-based smoothed point interpolation method (ESPIM), in simulation of the coupled hydro-mechanical behaviour of unsaturated porous media. In the proposed technique, the problem domain is spatially discretised using a triangular background mesh, and the polynomial point interpolation method combined with a simple node selection scheme is adopted for creating nodal shape functions. Smoothing domains are formed on top of the background mesh, and a constant smoothed strain, created by applying the smoothing operation over the smoothing domains, is assigned to each smoothing domain. The deformation and flow models are developed based on the equilibrium equation of the mixture, and linear momentum and mass balance equations of the fluid phases, respectively. The effective stress approach is followed to account for the coupling between the flow and deformation models. Further coupling among the phases is captured through a hysteretic soil water retention model that evolves with changes in void ratio. An advanced elastoplastic constitutive model within the context of the bounding surface plasticity theory is employed for predicting the nonlinear behaviour of soil skeleton. Time discretisation is performed by adopting a three-point discretisation method with growing time steps to avoid temporal instabilities. A modified Newton-Raphson framework is designed for dealing with nonlinearities of the discretised system of equations. The performance of the numerical model is examined through a number of numerical examples. The state-of-the-art computational scheme developed is useful for simulation of geotechnical engineering problems involving unsaturated soils.     

A novel coupled FDM-DEM modelling method for flexible membrane boundary in laboratory tests

Difficulties are involved in discrete element method (DEM) modelling of the flexible boundary, that is, the membranes covering the soil sample, which can be commonly found in contemporary laboratory soil tests. In this paper, a novel method is proposed wherein the finite difference method (FDM) and DEM are coupled to simulate the rubber membrane and soil body, respectively. Numerical plane strain and triaxial tests, served by the flexible membrane, are implemented and analysed later. The effect of the membrane modulus on the measurement accuracy is considered, with analytical formulae derived to judge the significance of this effect. Based on an analysis of stress-strain responses and the grain rotation field, the mechanical performances produced by the flexible and rigid lateral boundaries are compared for the plane strain test. The results show that (1) the effect of the membrane on the test result becomes more significant at larger strain level because the membrane applies additional lateral confining pressure to the soil body; (2) the tested models reproduce typical stress and volumetric paths for specimens with shear bands; (3) for the plane strain test, the rigid lateral boundary derives a much higher peak strength and larger bulk dilatation, but a similar residual strength, compared with the flexible boundary. The latter produces a more uniform (or ‘diffuse') rotation field and more mobilised local kinematics than does the former. All simulations show that the proposed FDM-DEM coupling method is able to simulate laboratory tests with a flexible boundary membrane.     

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.     

新疆和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价

随着化肥、农膜等在农业生产中的过量投入，耕地面源污染的程度随之加重。文章选取塔里木河流域上游和田地区为研究区域，依据P-S-R框架理论，构建和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价指标体系，加入土壤理化数据，使用生态风险评价模型对和田地区1980 年及2016 年耕地面源污染状况进行生态风险评价，运用耕地生态风险模型、生态风险转移矩阵、Arcgis分析和田地区耕地面源污染时空分异状况。研究结论如下：和田地区1980 年耕地生态风险等级均为II级或III级，呈“中间高，两侧低”分布；2016 年耕地生态风险等级上升至IV级或V级，呈“倒W型”分布，各县耕地面源污染程度较1980 年均有较大幅度的上升，其中墨玉县和于田县在2016 年耕地生态风险等级达到最高的V级，而民丰县因自身生态环境的强脆弱性，同样需要提高关注。根据面源污染“从源头治理”的原则，应切实推进和田地区耕地生态环境保护与治理，提高政府重视程度，增强技术指导，开展试点工作，改善和田地区耕地面源污染现状。