A study on quality of aquatic environment in Tumen River Area

After the survey of pollution sources, a study on surface water quality assessment and forecast is given by means of grey system method, fuzzy mathematical method and multiple-index method. Based on it, aquatic environment quality features, treatment measures and environmental strategies of the area are proposed. The quality of aquatic environment of 5 rivers in the Tumen River area is studied. The results show that the pollution of surface water is serious; water quality of most rivers is between grade IV and V except the Hunchun River, being higher than grade IV standard; pollution levels of most rivers have been basically controlled except the of Burhatong River, which is deteriorating gradually. Pollutants of the rivers are comparatively regular, mainly are SS, COD, BOD, AR-OH, NH₃-N. The main pollution trades are chemical fibre industry, pulp and paper making industry and mining industry. If the growth rate of gross industrial product is higher than 25 percent under the encouraging-model of regional exploitation, the pollutants’ load will overtake the bearing capacity of aquatic environment. Thus some protection program against pollution must be worked out in order to achieve the harmonious development of economy society and environment. A project from “Studies on Earlier Stage of Regional Development” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences     

HCN fluorescence on Titan

The HCN emission features near 3 μm recently detected by Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39) are analyzed with a model for fluorescence of sunlight in the ν₃ band of HCN. The emission spectrum is consistent with current knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile and the HCN distribution inferred from millimeter-wave observations. The spectrum is insensitive to the abundance of HCN in the thermosphere and the thousand-fold enhancement relative to photochemical models suggested by Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39) is not required to explain the observations. We find that the spectrum can be matched with temperatures from 130 to 200 K, with slightly better fits at high temperature, contrary to the temperature determination of 130±10 K of Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39). The HCN emission spectrum is sensitive to the collisional de-excitation probability, P₁₀, for the ν₃ state and we determine a value of 10⁻⁵ with an accuracy of about a factor of two. Analysis of absorption lines in the C₂H₂ν₃ band near 3 μm, detected in the same spectrum, indicate a C₂H₂ mole fraction near 0.01 μbar of 10⁻⁵ for P₁₀=10⁻⁴. The derived mole fraction, however, is dependent upon the value adopted for P₁₀ and lower values are required if P₁₀ at Titan temperatures is less than its room temperature value.     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。     

临猗5.0级地震前后品质因子值变化特征研究

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的数字地震资料，采用P波初动半周期残差法求得1998年7月临猗5．0级地震前后不同路径的Q(品质因子)值变化，发现在地震发生前Q值为87～203，震后Q值为67～164，震前震中区附近出现明显的高Q值异常。结果表明，地震前的高Q值异常可以作为地震预测的一种手段。     

Temperature of the Icelandic crust: Inferred from electrical conductivity, temperature surface gradient, and maximum depth of earthquakes

Two different models of the structure of the Icelandic crust have been presented. One is the thin-crust model with a 10–15 km thick crust beneath the axial rift zones, with an intermediate layer of partially molten basalt at the base of the crust and on the top of an up-domed asthenosphere. The thick-crust model assumes a 40 km thick and relatively cold crust beneath central Iceland. The most important and crucial parameter to distinguish between these different models is the temperature distribution with depth. Three methods are used to estimate the temperature distribution with depth. First, the surface temperature gradient measured in shallow wells drilled outside geothermal areas. Second, the thickness of the seismogenic zone which is associated with a 750 °C isothermal surface. Third, the depth to a layer with high electrical conductivity which is associated with partially molten basalt with temperature around 1100 °C at the base of the crust. Combination of these data shows that the temperature gradient can be assumed to be nearly linear from the surface down to the base of the crust. These results are strongly in favour of the thin-crust model. The scattered deep seismic reflectors interpreted as Moho in the thick-crust model could be caused by phase transitions or reflections from melt pockets in the mantle.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Analysis of drivers governing temporal salinity and temperature variations in groundwater discharge from Altug Submarine Karst Cave (Kas-Turkey)

Salinity and temperature variations in groundwater discharge from the Altug submarine karst cave have been observed at 28 m below sea level for every 10 min between November 2004 and August 2005 to determine the drivers that govern the salinization. Comparisons between temporal trends of salinity and temperature with those of precipitation, air pressure, sea level and wind velocity revealed an apparent dominance of precipitation regime on the salinity and temperature variations. Spectral analyses applied to observations showed that the air pressure and sea level oscillations are affected by sun and moon tides which do not have an appreciable impact on the salinity and temperature variations. Annual rate of salinization in Altug cave seems inversely related to the inland groundwater head so that the maximum and minimum fresh water contributions occur at mid-spring and late-summer, respectively.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

TBM在不良地质洞条件下的施工技术

TBM掘进机以其快速、高效、安全、优质等优点越来越广泛地被应用于隧洞开挖施工中,尤其更适用于深埋超长隧洞,然而在不良地质洞段中TBM掘进缓慢,甚至有卡刀可能,反而不如钻爆法灵活,这就需要根据围岩性状采取特殊技术处理措施,辅以监控量测手段对支护方案进行验证、调整支护措施、修正设计参数等。结合辽宁大伙房输水隧洞工程,总结了在不良地质洞条件下的超前地质预报方法、不良地质段处理措施以及围岩变形监测方法。