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1.
《The Professional geographer》1987,39(1):85-94
Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS) 相似文献
2.
Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
3.
Gregory P. Marchildon Suren Kulshreshtha Elaine Wheaton Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411
Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using
climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought
is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger
region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought.
These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the
Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both
organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover,
these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents
of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective
institutional adaptation. 相似文献
4.
利用GTOPO30和SRTM3数字高程(DEM)数据,提取了喜马拉雅山脉(造山带)的数字高程模型并对其进行了地质地貌的初步分析。从SRTM3数字高程数据提取出坡度数据,初步分析了喜马拉雅山脉坡度和高程的特征。数字高程和坡度图清楚地展现了喜马拉雅大型断裂带(构造边界)的空间分布特征。分析了中国气象局下属的西藏、青海、四川和云南4省区气象观测台站55年来的年平均降水量观测数据、喜马拉雅山脉南坡的年平均降水量数据、喜马拉雅DEM和裂变径迹数据,发现喜马拉雅山脉从东至西,年平均降水量逐渐减少,地形起伏逐渐变小,而高程渐次升高,与此同时剥蚀速率降低;从北至南,年平均降水量逐渐增加,地形起伏增大,高程快速降低,而剥蚀速率则急剧升高。这充分说明了喜马拉雅年平均降水量大的地区,地表剥蚀作用相对较强,年平均降水量小的地区,地表剥蚀作用则较弱,即:在喜马拉雅地区,长周期的地表剥蚀过程(可长达数个百万年时间尺度)和短周期(仅仅50年)的降水量观测是耦合的。 相似文献
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6.
Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed. 相似文献
7.
本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4~7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1~5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9~12月。 相似文献
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9.
Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data. 相似文献
10.
一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。 相似文献