Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于IBIS模型的耕地生态价值估算——以成都崇州市为例

基于成都崇州市耕地实地采样数据和修正的IBIS模型测算数据,对耕地生产有机质、调节大气、涵养水源、土壤保持和净化环境等五种自然生态服务价值进行测算,并与已有相关研究成果进行对比分析。结果表明：① 研究区耕地不同类型的生态服务价值量存在较大差异,由高到低依次为：土壤保持、调节大气、涵养水源、生产有机质、净化环境;② 研究区单位面积耕地生态价值量为29959.5元/hm²,其中土壤保持价值的贡献率最大,占36.35%;③ 与已有研究结果对比分析,由于耕地生态价值内涵界定和测算方法的差异,单位面积耕地生态价值测算结果存在一定差异。研究结果对于科学合理地确定耕地保护的补偿标准和补偿机制构建具有一定的参考指导作用。     

半干旱区农田和草地与大气间二氧化碳和水热通量的模拟研究

集成生物圈模型(IBIS)是目前最复杂的基于动态植被模型的陆面生物物理模型之一。通过应用该模型对国际协调强化观测计划(CEOP)半干旱区基准站之一的吉林通榆观测站(44°25′N,122°52′E)草地和农田生态系统2003年全年的CO2和水、热通量变化进行模拟,并将结果与涡度相关法测定的观测值进行了对比分析,以检验IBIS模型在半干旱区的模拟能力。对比结果表明:除CO2通量模拟结果不够理想外,IBIS模型较好地模拟了通榆观测站的感热通量和潜热通量。模拟与观测比较的相关系数均通过了0.05以上显著性水平的信度检验。总体上看,模型对农田生态系统模拟的偏差小于对退化草地的模拟。     

Evaluation of the hydrology of the IBIS land surface model in a semi‐arid catchment

This paper evaluates the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) land surface model using daily soil moisture data over a 3‐year period (2005–2007) at a semi‐arid site in southeastern Australia, the Stanley catchment, using the Monte Carlo generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The model was satisfactorily calibrated for both the surface 30 cm and full profile 90 cm. However, full‐profile calibration was not as good as that for the surface, which results from some deficiencies in the evapotranspiration component in IBIS. Relatively small differences in simulated soil moisture were associated with large discrepancies in the predictions of surface runoff, drainage and evapotranspiration. We conclude that while land surface schemes may be effective at simulating heat fluxes, they may be ineffective for prediction of hydrology unless the soil moisture is accurately estimated. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the soil moisture simulations were most sensitive to soil parameters, and the wilting point was the most identifiable parameter. Significant interactions existed between three soils parameters: porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity and Campbell ‘b’ exponent, so they could not be identified independent of each other. There were no significant differences in parameter sensitivity and interaction for different hydroclimatic years. Even though the data record contained a very dry year and another year with a very large rainfall event, this indicated that the soil model could be calibrated without the data needing to explore the extreme range of dry and wet conditions. IBIS was much less sensitive to vegetation parameters. The leaf area index (LAI) could affect the mean of daily soil moisture time series when LAI < 1, while the variance of the soil moisture time series was sensitive to LAI > 1. IBIS was insensitive to the Jackson rooting parameter, suggesting that the effect of the rooting depth distribution on predictions of hydrology was insignificant. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年（1961-2010年）气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段（1986-2005年）平均气候状态作为“标准年气候”,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被“不适应”以及“不适应”的程度,最后根据过去50年的“不适应”次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示：在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。     

NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future

Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics of China’s potential vegetation in the past 55 years (1961–2015) and in the future 35 years (2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.     

微变形远程监测技术及应用

论述了微变形远程监测技术的基本原理，重点介绍了步进频率连续波（SF—CW）技术，并结合干涉测量成像系统（IBIS）说明微变形远程监测技术的应用领域和特点，以及发展前景。     

陆地生态系统模拟研究中IBIS模型开发应用的回顾和展望

全球动态植被模型(DGVM)是研究生态系统复杂过程和全球变化的强有力工具。本文基于过去20多年全球已发表的文献,对得到广泛关注和应用的DGVM之一——集成生物圈模拟器(Integrated Biosphere Simulator,IBIS)的开发、改进、发展及应用进行了总结。IBIS是一个在全球变化等多领域中有着广泛应用的模型。自1996年诞生以来,IBIS在陆地生态系统的碳、氮、水循环,植被动态、陆气耦合、水域系统耦合和气候变化影响等多个方面取得了验证和应用。本文较为系统地阐述了IBIS模型在V2.5版本后的不同发展方向,主要针对IBIS模型在水文过程(蒸散、土壤水分、地下水、径流)、植被动态(植被功能型、土地覆盖变化)、植被生理过程(植被物候、光合作用、植被生长、碳分配)、土壤生物地球化学过程(土壤碳氮循环及反馈、温室气体排放等)以及包括土地利用变化、干扰与管理等人类活动过程等方面的改进与发展进行了全面的综述;在此基础上,对模型在生态系统生产力、碳水收支、水分利用效率、温室气体排放、自然干扰(干旱、火灾、虫害)和人类活动(土地利用变化、农业经营)等方面的应用,以及模型的技术性改进方面进行了回顾;最后对模型的前景和进一步发展提出了一些见解。