Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

大气环流模式（GCMs）在东南诸河流域的适用性评价

采用秩评分方法,选取NCEP再分析资料作为“实测”依据,以10个统计特征值为基础,评估了21个GCMs对东南诸河流域17个气候要素的模拟效果．结果显示：气候变量表现出不同的统计特征,GCMs对不同气候变量的模拟效果并不一致．与地面气象站点实测值对比,CSIRO：MK30、GFDL：CM21、GFDL：CM20、INM：CM30对降水和地面气温的模拟效果相对较好;流域高空气候要素的模拟效果更佳的模式有CGCM2．3．2、GISS：EH、BCCR：BCM20、GFDL：CM20对;综合所有气候变量,BCCR：BCM20、GFDL：CM20、CGCM2．3．2、GISS：EH的表现更优．优选出的GCMs可以为东南诸河流域气候变化的进一步研究提供科学依据．     

大气环流模式（GCMs）在东南诸河流域的适用性评价

采用秩评分方法,选取NCEP再分析资料作为“实测”依据,以10个统计特征值为基础,评估了21个GCMs对东南诸河流域17个气候要素的模拟效果．结果显示：气候变量表现出不同的统计特征,GCMs对不同气候变量的模拟效果并不一致．与地面气象站点实测值对比,CSIRO：MK30、GFDL：CM21、GFDL：CM20、INM：...     

The influence of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid–semi-arid areas of Kenya

The effect of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid and semi-arid, agro-climatic zones III-IV of Kenya was evaluated using two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), as well as the CERES-Maize model. Long-term climate data was obtained from three meteorological stations situated in eastern, central and western regions of Kenya, while maize data was obtained from six sites within the regions. The climate scenarios were projected to the year 2030. Temperature increases of 2·29 and 2·89°C are predicted by the CCCM and GFDL, respectively. Rainfall levels are predicted to remain unchanged, but there are thought to be shifts in distribution. It is predicted that the short-rains season (October–January) will experience some increased rainfall, while the long-rains season (April–July) will show a decrease. Maize yields are predicted to decrease in zone III areas, while an increase is predicted in zone IV areas. However, the predicted changes in yields are low since they all fall below 500 kg ha⁻¹, except the Homa Bay site. Thus, to counter the adverse effects of climate change on maize production, it may be necessary to use early maturing cultivars, practice early planting, and in eastern Kenya, shift to growing maize during the short-rains season.     

青海湖热力状况的模拟与未来情景之研究

运用基于湖泊热量收支与湍流扩散的湖泊热力学模型模拟了青海湖近３０年来湖水热力状况,内容包括湖泊水面温度,温度沿深度的垂直分布,冬季结冰与融冰的起迄时间,冰盖厚度;积雪深度与天数等。在此基础上,运用４个ＧＣＭｓ模型输出的ＣＯ２倍增情景下该地区的气候状况,评价了湖泊热力状况在未来的可能变化情况。     

Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation

It is now widely recognised that the most significant impacts of global warming are likely to be experienced through changes in the frequency of extreme events, including flooding. This paper reviews physical and empirical arguments which suggest that global warming may result in a more intense hydrological cycle, with an associated increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy precipitation. Results derived from enhanced-greenhouse experiments using global climate models (GCMs) are shown to be consistent with these physical and empirical arguments. Detailed analysis of output from three GCMs indicates the possibility of substantial increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme daily precipitation, with amplification of the effect as the return period increases. Moreover, return period analyses for locations in Australia, Europe, India, China and the USA indicate that the results are global in scope. Subsequent discussion of the limitations of GCMs for this sort of analysis highlights the need for caution when interpreting the precipitation results presented here. However, the consistency between physically-based expectations, empirical observations, and GCM results is considered sufficient for the GCM results to be taken seriously, at least in a qualitative sense, especially considering that the alternative seems to be reliance by planners on the fundamentally flawed concept of a stationary climate.     

A study on the possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China

IntroductionBecauseoftherapidindustrialiZation,eSPeciallytheuseoffossilfijels,atmosphericconcentrahonofgreenhousegases,suchascabindioxide(CO2)andotherradiahvelyachvetracegases,haveincreasedconsiderablyinthepastcentury,thatwouldinducetoagradualw~ngoftheplanetthroughgreenhouseeffectS[l'2].TheincreaseofCOZconcenhationintheatmosphereanditSinducedclimatechangewouldimpactonagricultUlalproduchonbothdireehyandindirectly'"1.faceisoneofthemostimportantcropsforfoodproduchonintheworld.faceproduchoninC…     

Challenges of calculating dunefield mobility over the 21st century

Attention has been directed towards both the impacts of future climate change on environmental systems and dunefield activity in the past, but there has been relatively little consideration of potential dune mobility in a future and possibly warmer world. This paper considers the use and limitations of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) (Hadcm3, Hadcm2, CSIRO-mk2b and CGCM1), in combination with simple dune mobility indices to predict the activity of the Kalahari dunefield. It is clear that uncertainties surround GCM resolution and accuracy, mobility index robustness for the calculation of intra-annual dune mobility and data collection for mobility index calibration. Macro-scale studies that look at large areas of the world over long time scales are well suited to GCM and mobility index use, but dune mobility can be variable within a dunefield, and it is the extreme sand transporting events, occurring at high temporal resolutions, that are the most important for short term studies. To investigate intra-annual changes in dune mobility over a specific dunefield techniques such as downscaling, weather generators and probability curve fitting can help provide climate predictions for smaller areas over shorter time frames. However, these methods introduce uncertainty of their own, and they often rely on the accuracy of original GCM predictions or the climate parameter relationships observed at present. Analysis of intra-annual changes also requires mobility indices that can model monthly mobility patterns well, although existing indices have only been used for calculating annual dune mobility potential. When they are used for intra-annual predictions, the lack of lag response between precipitation decreases and the assumed vegetation dieback leads to an exaggerated amplitude pattern of dune mobility throughout the year. Calibration of dune mobility indices to dune mobility observed on the ground is therefore important but is hampered by a lack of observed measurements for individual months. Solutions are available to overcome some of the outlined problems, but they can provide their own set of uncertainties, which combine to further reduce the confidence given to future dune mobility predictions.     

古气候数值模拟:进展评述

数值模拟是古气候研究的一个重要内容。过去30年来,古气候数值模拟研究在相当程度上深化了我们对古气候变化机制的理解。在轨道尺度上,数值模拟证明了冰后期气候系统变化主要是对地球轨道参数变化的响应,同时揭示了温室气体、植被、海洋、冰盖等反馈因子的重要性。针对短尺度气候变化,数值模拟揭示出大洋传送带对北大西洋淡水注入的敏感性。在构造尺度上,数值模拟揭示了气候系统对于高原抬升、海道开合、大陆漂移导致的古地理变化、大气CO2浓度变化和太阳常数变化等的响应,揭示了气候系统突变对驱动因子阈值的敏感性。目前,古气候模拟研究中还存在分辨率不高、模拟结果与记录不完全吻合、模拟的边界条件不清楚等诸多问题。今后古气候模拟研究的改进有赖于模式的改进和计算机运算速度的提高,也有赖于对变化机制的更深理解和对边界条件更精确的重建。     

气候变暖对中国水稻生产可能影响的研究

利用随机天气模型,将大气环流模式预测的气候情景与水稻模式相链接,研究了气候变暖对中国水稻生产的可能影响。结果表明,大气中ＣＯ２浓度加倍,中国水稻主产区适宜水稻生长的日数将延长６～１１ｄ,积温增加２２０～３３０℃·ｄ。积温的相对增长率由南向北呈增长趋势。水稻产量形成期低温天气出现频率将减少,而高温天气出现的频率增加。若品种与播种、移栽期不变,水稻产量将下降;而若通过改变品种使作物生育期基本保持目前的状况,减产幅度将比品种不变时明显偏小,部分地区还有可能增产。