The Record of an Extreme Flood in the Sediments of Montane Lillooet Lake, British Columbia: Implications for Paleoenvironmental Assessment

Severe rainfall in mid October, 2003 produced the largest floods in almost a century of record on rivers in the Cordillera of southwestern British Columbia. Sediment deposited in Lillooet Lake as a result of this event is clearly distinguished by stratigraphy, colour, texture, magnetic properties, and organic content. Each of these physical properties is related to the lacustrine processes, especially turbid underflow, that distributed the sediment through the lake. The flood, which lasted less than a week, delivered 8–12 times the amount of sediment that accumulates in most entire years in the deepest, central parts of the lake. Recognition of events of this type in the stratigraphic record offers a means of assessing the changing nature of extreme hydroclimatic events, and their relation to more ubiquitous, lower-energy processes.     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

Flood hydrology and geomorphic effectiveness in the central Appalachians

This paper compares hydrologic records and geomorphic effects of several historic floods in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States. The most recent of these, occurring in November 1985, was the largest ever recorded in West Virginia, with peak discharges exceeding the estimated 500-year discharge at eight of eleven stations in the South Branch Potomac River and Cheat River basins. Geomorphic effects on valley floors included some of the most severe and widespread floodplain erosion ever documented and exceeded anything seen in previous floods, even though comparable or greater rainfall and unit discharge have been observed several times in the region over the past 50 years. Comparison of discharge-drainage area plots suggests that the intensity and spatial scale of the November 1985 flood were optimal for erosion of valley floors along the three forks of the South Branch Potomac River. However, when a larger geographic area is considered, rainfall totals and discharge-drainage area relationships are insufficient predictors of geomorphic effectiveness for valley floors at drainage areas of 250 to 2500 km². Unit stream power was calculated for the largest recorded flood discharge at 46 stations in the central Appalachians. Maximum values of unit stream power are developed in bedrock canyons, where the boundaries are resistant to erosion and the flow cross-section cannot adjust its width to accommodate extreme discharges. The largest value was 2570 W m^?2; record discharge at most stations was associated with unit stream power values less than 300 W m^?2, but more stations exceeded this value in the November 1985 flood than in the other floods that were analysed. Unit stream power at indirect discharge measurement sites near areas experiencing severe erosion in this and other central Appalachian floods generally exceeded 300 W m^?2; reach-average values of 200-500 W m^?2 were calculated for valleys where erosion damage was most widespread. Despite these general trends, unit stream power is not a reliable predictor of geomorphic change for individual sites. Improved understanding of flood impacts will require more detailed investigation of interactions between local site characteristics and patterns of flood flow over the valley floor.     

陇南伏期旱涝指数及预测模型

从陇南气候规律及农业生产实际出发，制定出客观定量衡量陇南伏期旱涝特征的旱涝指数，并利用1967－1996年旱涝指数，用EOF对陇南伏期旱涝进行分片，分析其时空分布特征，建立各片伏期旱涝均生函数预测模型，通过应用，预报准确率有较大提高。     

Gradient irregularity in the herbert gorge of Northeastern Australia

The seventy-kilometre-long Herbert Gorge of northeastern Australia preserves a record of past floods in slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators. Step-backwater modelling of water-surface profiles indicates that discharges ranging from 11000 to 17000 m³s^?1 have occurred six times in the gorge during the last 900 years. These flood reconstructions provide insight into the role of extreme flows in shaping bedrock channel morphology. In particular, the hydraulics of extreme flows can be related to boulder transport, and to the location of large boulder bars. Large boulder bars occur throughout the Herbert Gorge, being best developed at loci of stream power minima along the inside of bends, at tributary junctions, and at obstructions in the channel caused by bedrock highs. Only the flows exceeding approximately 8000 m³ s^?1 are competent to transport the boulders which constitute the bars. In the straight channel reaches, the boulder accumulations and bedrock highs have a fairly regular spacing which appears to be independent of lithologic or structural controls. The bars provide an efficient means of energy dissipation, and they are interpreted as a result of the inherent high turbulence of flow in a steep channel. The regular spacing of the bars, and their correspondence with the hydraulics of large flows, suggest that the bars and associated bedrock highs may represent a self-regulating mechanism akin to the pool-riffle sequence of alluvial channels. It may therefore be appropriate to view bedrock channels as deformable on the timescale of extreme discharges.     

Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998     

1965—2014年黑龙江省洪涝灾害时空演变特征

基于1965—2014年黑龙江省63个气象站逐月降水资料,利用Z指数、区域洪涝指数、数理统计和反距离权重插值等方法,得出洪涝等级（轻涝、中涝、重涝）,分析近50年黑龙江省不同等级洪涝灾害时空分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明,近50年黑龙江省发生区域性轻度、中度和重度洪涝灾害分别为7次、7次和6次,降水倾向率为0.864 mm/a;洪涝灾害发生频率分布不均,发生轻涝104次、中涝74次以及重涝29次,洪涝灾害发生频率较高地区逐年扩大;同时,发生洪涝灾害的站数比差异明显,且随时间呈缓慢上升趋势,其中,轻涝、中涝和重涝站数比的增幅分别为1.3/10a、1.6/10a和0.85/10a;洪涝灾害高发期主要在20世纪80年代、90年代和2010年之后,主洪涝区为鹤岗、伊春、黑河和牡丹江地区,次洪涝区为大兴安岭和大庆地区。     

Late Holocene glacial and periglacial evolution in the upper Orco Valley, northwestern Italian Alps

The sediments present in some areas of the Orco Valley provide indications on climatic variations that occurred during the last 6000 years on the southern slopes of the Alps. In particular, distribution and ages of peat layers help define periods and extent of glacial fluctuation in the last 2200 years. Sampling of soils involved in periglacial processes provided a basis for development of a chronological framework of late Holocene environmental change. The data indicate a trend toward cooler climate in the second half of the Holocene. A strong relationship exists between phases of River Po flooding and expansion/retreat phases of the Swiss glaciers: major glacial advances were coeval with periods of intense flooding of the River Po, whereas the phases of glacial retreat coincided with periods of little flooding of the Po. Only in three cases do relationships between glacier activity and floods show weak correlations; two of the cases relate to the warmest periods in approximately the last 2200 years, while the third is the present period. Paleoclimatic evidence from the study region indicates the relatively warm Roman Period between about 2200 and 1900 cal yr BP appears to better represent modern conditions than does the Medieval Warm Period.     

Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal

The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme precipitation indices: R×1day, R×5day, SDII, R20, CWD and R95PTOT for the 10-year return period, between 1950 and 2003, the EPSI was developed to both annual data and meteorological season. The regionalization of extreme precipitation in Portugal were determined using a principal component analysis in T-mode. The results, show three spatial regions obtained from PCA. The three regions were analyzed separate. In the annual EPSI, the highest susceptibility areas are the mountainous regions in northern (e.g. Gerês, Peneda, Alvão, Marão and Montesinho) and central Portugal (e.g. Serra da Estrela), as well as in the Algarve (southern Portugal). Conversely, the lower susceptibility classes are in municipalities of the northeast, Alentejo and along the central-western coast. The results of EPSI show similar results in autumn and winter. In spring, however, the high susceptibility class increases in the Lisbon region and in the Sado Basin. In summer, there is an increase in susceptibility in the northeast, while susceptibility is low over much of Alentejo and Algarve, where precipitation is neglectful. This work presents a first attempt to implement this type of index for mainland Portugal. The first results are very promising, showing a consistent representation of the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation susceptibility. The combination of this information by municipalities can be of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.     

长江流域历史洪水的周期地理学研究

从周期地理学的角度,探讨长江历史洪水的频发特点和周期规律,认为影响长江历史洪水的基本周期因子,与近日点日月交食年周期、太阳黑子活动周期和历史气候周期等因素有较大的关联性。而近几个世纪以来长江洪水频率的不断加快,表明人类活动扰乱和改变了历史洪水原有的周期值,使长江历史洪水周期打上了人类活动的深刻烙印。