Reflections on the current state of global climate response

What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.     

A CER discounting scheme could save climate change regime after 2012

We can generate a net global GHG emission reduction from developing countries (in an UNFCCC term, non-Annex 1 Parties) without imposing targets on them, if we discount CERs generated from CDM projects. The CER discounting scheme means that a part or all of CDM credits, i.e., CERs, made by developing countries through unilateral CDM projects will be retired rather than sold to developed countries to increase their emissions. It is not feasible to impose certain forms of target (whether sectoral or intensity targets) on non-Annex 1 whose emission trend is hard to predict and whose industrial structure is undergoing a rapid change.

Instead of imposing targets (a command and control approach), we should apply market instruments in generating a net global emission reduction from non-Annex 1. Since April 2005 when the first unilateral CDM was approved by the CDM Executive Board, CDM has been functioning as a market mechanism to provide incentives for developing countries to initiate their own emission reduction projects. As CDM is the only market mechanism engaging developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol, we should try to re-design CDM so that it can generate net global emission reductions by introducing the idea of discounting CERs. But in order to produce meaningful GHG emission reductions by discounting CERs, the project scope of CDM has to be expanded by relaxing project additionality criteria while maintaining strict technical additionality criteria. Agreeing on the CERs Discounting Scheme will have a better political chance than agreeing on imposing emission reduction targets on developing countries.     

2012年广东省前汛期气候特点及其成因初步分析

2012年前汛期(4～6月),我省平均气温较常年偏高0.9℃,降水量较常年偏多13.2%。前汛期主要气候特点表现在:4月降水异常偏多71.4%,5月下旬至6月中旬的龙舟水明显偏少,强对流天气频发,热带气旋影响偏早、总体灾情轻。大气环流仍然表现为对前期结束的拉尼娜事件的滞后响应,西太平洋副高强度偏弱、面积偏小、西伸脊点偏东,有利于北方弱冷空气南下与异常旺盛的西南暖湿气流在华南地区汇合,是前汛期内降水偏多的主要原因。     

Sediments Quality Assessment of Jacarepaguá Lagoon: The Venue of the 2011 Rock in Rio

In order to aid in the efforts of the 2016 Olympic Games, the organizers of 2011 Rock in Rio decided to build a permanent venue next to the Olympic Park. The area is problematic from the geotechnical point of view since it presents soils with low shear strength, low permeability, and high plasticity, so major soil improvement works were carried out. Bored soil–cement columns were placed to increase soil shear strength and reduce compressibility. A meter thick fill composed of gneiss residual soil was placed and trenches were digged to drain rainwater. However, earlier studies conducted on Jacarepaguá Lagoon have detected the presence of heavy metals in these sediments. In this study, an environmental survey on the Jacarepaguá Lagoon sediments took place in order to choose a place where its sediments could be dredged to be later used in the drainage facilities. The results indicated areas where the threshold level 1 (low probability of adverse effects) issued by the general procedures for sediments quality assessments for dredging purposes, Resolution no 344 of the Brazilian Federal Government, was surpassed. Levels above the limits established for cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) were detected. Based on this consideration the State Environmental Agency issued a permit allowing the organizers of 2011 Rock in Rio to dredge an area close to City of Rock in order to obtain coarse sediments for the drainage facilities. In addition, it was found that those sediments were ideal for this application since their hydraulic conductivity is on the order of 10^?2 cm/s.     

Assessment of SARAL-ALTIKA Tidal Corrections in the Coastal Oceans Around India

The present tidal correction of sea level records of Satellite with ARgoes and ALtimeter (SARAL) is based on the finite element solution (FES) of global tide model FES2012 tidal solution. In this study, we examined the validity of the tidal corrections in the coastal oceans around India using tide gauge measurements and a regional tidal model. Our regional model is based on the barotropic version of the Princeton Ocean Model that is forced by the time-varying tidal levels at the open ocean end based on the global FES99 tidal solution. Tide charts prepared from the simulated tidal levels are very similar to the FES tidal solutions. Comparison with the tide gauge measurement shows close agreement with the regional tidal solutions. On the other hand, the agreement with the FES tide models differ significantly in the Gulf of Khambhat and the Gulf of Kutch on the northwest, and in the Hooghly estuary on the northeast continental shelf. However, the agreement is exceptional in other parts of the study domain. These tidal solutions are used in the SARAL-ALTIKA X-track data to assess the FES tidal correction and to draw some inferences associated with the coastal processes. It is revealed that these corrections are reasonably accurate for the coastal oceans around India except the aforementioned converging channels.     

2012年全球发现的新矿物种

本文对2012年度全球发现并经国际矿物学协会(IMA)新矿物与矿物分类命名专业委员会(CNMNC)批准的90个新矿物种资料进行了系统梳理,从矿物名称、晶体化学式、晶系和空间群、晶胞参数、主要粉晶衍射数据、物理性质、光学性质、产地与产状、与其他矿物种的关系、矿物名称来源、化学反应和光谱学特征等方面归纳总结了这些新矿物的重要矿物学特征,并按照中国新矿物及矿物命名委员会颁布的《矿物种汉名审订条例》,对90个新矿物种的中文名称进行了审订。通过分批次公布国际新矿物工作的新进展和新成果,并逐步完善和规范矿物种中文译名体系,可以为我国新矿物的发现和研究提供有科学价值的参考和借鉴,并不断推进矿物种中文译名的规范化与标准化进程。     

EU–Mauritania fisheries partnership in need of more transparency

The new protocol signed in July 2012 by the European Union and Mauritania under the existing Fisheries Partnership Agreement did not produce the expected results. The main component of this protocol consisted of the access rights for 300,000 t/yr of small pelagics. During the first five months after the signature of the protocol, no EU pelagic trawlers used the opportunities created by the protocol. Only after the formal approval of the protocol by the European Council in December 2013, some eastern EU member states started sending their pelagic trawlers back to Mauritania. This resulted in a utilisation of the protocol of 54% for the whole of 2013. Although the EU repeatedly stated that the €70 million/yr paid under the protocol provided good value for money, this assertion was hard to maintain considering the limited utilisation of the agreement. The paper analyses why the EU concluded an agreement with Mauritania that was not wanted by their industry and that was therefore only partially used in the end. It describes the decision making process inside the EU; the different parties involved and their different objectives. It is concluded that the EU decision making process suffers from a lack of transparency and that the combination of a business agreement with development aid resulted in an agreement which did not attain either of the stated objectives. It is proposed that in future the two aspects are clearly separated, and that the development component is extended to other countries in West Africa, including those that have no fish to sell to the EU.     

预报异常极端高影响天气的 “集合异常预报法”：以北京2012年7月21日特大暴雨为例

对罕见极端高影响天气,既使一个模式有能力预报它,其数值预报也至少有以下难点:一是有多大把握确定所预报的天气是极端事件？二是其具体的定时、定量、定点预报可靠吗？本文介绍了集合预报和气候资料相结合的 “集合异常预报法”,并通过北京2012年7月21日（7.21）特大暴雨事件揭示出“集合异常预报法”和集合预报可以提供比单一模式预报更可靠和更准确的信息,从而可有效地缓解上述两大难点。作者建议中央气象台和其他有条件的台站可采用这种办法提高重大灾害性天气的预报能力。文中具体讨论了如下三方面:（1）标准化异常度（SA）的定义以及它同集合预报相结合提高对罕见极端高影响天气预报的可靠性,并由此可导出一个“社会影响矩阵”来定量地表达一个预报对社会的潜在影响;（2）利用集合预报,特别是多模式集合预报可以克服单一模式前后预报的跳跃性或不连续性问题,由此可延长实际可预报时效,如北京7.21事件超过100 mm大暴雨的实际可预报时效提前了2天;（3）SA还有助于认识异常天气发生的原因:从SA的分布看,造成北京7.21 大暴雨事件的短期天气尺度背景因素是从西北方向移来的冷锋和台风倒槽的相遇;从SA的演变看,该事件的中期大背景因素是在北京东北方向有阻塞高压发展并导致北京以西地区的低槽加强和发展（地面强冷空气堆积）,在高纬度形成了一个高、低压系统相间的波列,发展并维持,同时诱导热带系统北进。     

Breaking the impasse: towards a new regime for international climate governance

The reality of the current international order makes it imperative that a just and effective climate regime should balance the historical responsibility of developed countries with the increasing absolute emissions from many developing nations. The key pillars are briefly proposed for a new international climate architecture that envisions replacing the current annex system with two new annexes: Annex α, for countries with high current emissions and historically high emissions, and Annex β, for countries with high current emissions and historically low emissions. Countries in both annexes would implement legally binding targets under this framework. Additionally, this proposal includes alterations and revisions to funding and technology transfer mechanisms to correct for weaknesses and inequities under the current Kyoto architecture. The proposed framework stems from a belief that a top-down, international approach to climate policy remains the most effective for ensuring environmental integrity. Given the slow rate of institutional learning, the reform and improvement of the current system is held as a more efficient course of action than abandoning the progress already achieved. It is argued that the proposed framework could effectively accommodate key equity, environmental integrity, and political feasibility concerns.     

Measurable,reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal

The climate negotiations up to Copenhagen will need to elaborate on measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation commitments and actions as part of the future of the climate regime. The conceptual, political, scientific, financial and institutional principles for MRV are explored for (1) mitigation commitments in developed countries, (2) mitigation actions in developing countries, supported by (3) means of implementation. For developed countries, the procedures in Articles 5, 7, 8 and 18 of the Kyoto Protocol will be critical in order to ensure comparability of commitments, both in effort and compliance. Outcomes should be reportable and verifiable through Annex I national communications and in-depth review. Existing procedures could be enhanced and need to apply across Protocol and Convention. MRV mitigation actions by developing countries should result in measurable deviations below baseline. Inventories will be important to measure, and enhanced national communications for reporting. The challenge will be to make mitigation actions verifiable, and options include verification by domestic institutions working to internationally agreed guidelines. A critical distinction is to be made between unilateral mitigation actions and those with international support. MRV applies to the provision of the means of implementation, including technology and finance. Investment in technology can be measured, so that institutional arrangements for technology and finance should be aligned. Verification of funds raised at international level would be simpler than raising funds nationally.