0214号热带气旋强度突变的研究

本文通过对0214号“黄蜂”强度变化的研究表明,弱冷空气、中尺度涡旋及副高加强西伸相互作用,导致其周围风场、物理量场、能量场、云系均出现有利结构,从而使其强度发生突变。     

Mechanism for the rapid motion of the Qianjiangping landslide during reactivation by the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir, China

The first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir in China started from a water surface elevation of 95 m on June 1, 2003 and reached 135 m on June 15, 2003. Shortly after the water level reached 135 m, many slopes began to deform and some landslides occurred. The Qianjiangping landslide is the largest one; it occurred on the early morning of July 14, 2003 and caused great loss of lives and property. Field investigation revealed that, although failure occurred after the reservoir reached 135 m, the stability of the slope was already reduced by preexisting sheared bedding planes. To study the mechanism of the rapid motion of this reactivated landslide, two soil samples were taken from a yellow clay layer and a black silt layer in the sliding zone, respectively, and a series of ring shear tests were conducted on the samples. One series of ring shear tests simulates the creep deformation behavior, while the other series simulates different shear rates. Conclusions drawn from analysis of the ring shear tests indicate that the mechanism of the rapid motion of the reactivated landslide was caused by the rate effect of the black silt layer during the motion phase after the creep failure. The yellow clay layer did not play any important role in the rapid motion in the 2003 event.     

The neoliberalization of ecosystem services: wetland mitigation banking and problems in environmental governance

Wetland mitigation banking is an American neoliberal environmental policy that has created a functioning market in `ecosystem services', commodities defined using the holistic measures of ecological science. The development of this market is discussed as a project of environmental governance, defined as the nation-state's regulation of ecological relations within its territory towards stabilizing capitalist relations of power and accumulation. I argue that the wetland banking industry serves as a bellwether that presages problems that other strategies of neoliberal environmental governance will experience. Ethnographic, economic and ecological data from the Chicago-area wetland banking industry inform a discussion of two major obstacles to neoliberal strategy: the problem of relying on ecological science to define the unit of trade, and the problem of aligning the somewhat independent relations of law, politics, markets and ecosystems across an array of spatial scales. Theoretical guidance is sought from recent work on `social natures' and from the Regulationist approach to institutional political economics.     

The role of sedimentation rate and permeability in the slope stability of the formerly glaciated Norwegian continental margin: the Storegga slide model

Despite the gently dipping slopes (ca 1°), large-scale submarine slope failures have occurred on the mid-Norwegian continental margin (Storegga, Sklinnadjupet, Traenadjupet), suggesting the presence of special conditions predisposing to failure in this formerly glaciated margin. With a volume estimated between 2,400 and 3,200 km³ and an affected area of approximately 95,000 km², the Storegga slide represents one of the largest and best-studied submarine slides of Holocene age known worldwide. Finite element modeling of slope failure indicates that a large (6.5 < Ms < 7.0) seismic triggering mechanism would not be sufficient to cause failure at more than 110 m below the seabed as observed for the slip planes at Storegga (northern sidewall). This implies that other factors (e.g., liquefaction, strain softening, gas charging, rapid burial) are needed to explain the occurrence of the Storegga slide with a deep surface of failure. In this paper, we discuss the importance of the compaction effect of rapidly accumulated sediments in the slide area. During compaction, sediment grains reorganize themselves, thereby, expelling pore water. Consequently, depending on sedimentation rate and permeability, excess pore pressures might result beneath less permeable sediments. Our modeling and cross-checking illustrate how excess pore pressure generation due to high sedimentation rate could explain the development of layers of weakness, and thus, how such a large slide might have been initiated in deep sediments. Using the highest sedimentation rate estimated in the area (36 and 27 m/kyr between 16.2 and 15 kyr BP), 1D modeling shows excess pore pressure values of around 200 kPa at a depth of 100 m below the seafloor 15 kyr BP and 60 kPa at a depth of 100 m at the time of the slide (8 kyr BP). Excess pore pressure apparently drastically reduced the resistance of the sediment (incomplete consolidation). In addition, 2D modeling shows that permeability anisotropies can significantly affect the lateral extent of excess pore pressure dissipation, affecting, that way, normally consolidated sediments far from the excess pore pressure initiation area.     

快速工业化区域土地利用变迁机制研究:发展模式视角——以佛山市南海区为例

从发展模式及其变迁的全新视角研究快速工业化区域土地利用变迁,有利于深刻揭示发展模式对区域土地利用变迁的重要影响机制,从而为制定合理有效的调控对策提供理论依据。文中利用历史普查、更新调查和逐年统计数据,结合卫星影像资料和实地调研,在简要分析典型案例区域佛山市南海区耕地变化和建设用地扩张时空特征的基础上,重点从发展模式及其变迁的视角,综合研究快速工业化区域土地利用变迁的动力机制与过程,并进一步探讨新形势下区域发展与土地利用的耦合调控对策。     

近海热带气旋迅速加强的气候特征

根据我国近海热带气旋发生、发展的气候特点，规定12小时热带气旋中心附近最大风速增值≥10 m/s为迅速加强。通过1949～1990年近海发生迅速加强的84个热带气旋个例分析，阐述了迅速加强时段的时间分布、地区分布及迅速加强前后气象要素变化的气候特征。     

快速精密星历替代精密星历定位的初步研究

由于GPS精密定位所需的IGS精密星历要在两周以后才能得到,因而利用两天后即可得到的快速精密星历、12小时后得到的超快速精密星历代替精密星历是GPS应用于地震短临预测的一个重要条件。本文利用北京市全球定位综合应用服务系统中五个GPS连续观测站一年半的数据,分别用三种星历进行精密定位计算,得到了小规模网中快速精密星历一般可以代替精密星历进行精密定位计算的结果。     

地震灾害盲场快速评估系统及其应用

震后灾害损失盲场快速评估的技术方法及其计算机软件系统可在确定地震震级、震中位置和发震时间等参数后,在人员未到地震现场的情况下,快速给出该次地震对一个区域造砀 经济损失和人员伤亡的初步评估结果。选择鲁南地震重点监视防御区为评估区域,并使用该软件系统对１９９５年９月－２０日发生在苍山的５．２级地震进行了灾害损失快速评估的实际检验。从检验结果可看出 ,用固定资产损失率矩阵计算经济损失,获得基础资料方便,     

Dose of truth—Monitoring marine non-indigenous species to serve legislative requirements

Non-indigenous species (NIS) are recognized as a global threat to biodiversity and monitoring their presence and impacts is considered a prerequisite for marine environmental management and sustainable development. However, monitoring for NIS seldom takes place except for a few baseline surveys. With the goal of serving the requirements of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the EU Regulation on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread of invasive alien species, the paper highlights the importance of early detection of NIS in dispersal hubs for a rapid management response, and of long-term monitoring for tracking the effects of NIS within recipient ecosystems, including coastal systems especially vulnerable to introductions. The conceptual framework also demonstrates the need for port monitoring, which should serve the above mentioned requirements but also provide the required information for implementation of the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships Ballast Water and Sediments. Large scale monitoring of native, cryptogenic and NIS in natural and man-made habitats will collectively lead to meeting international requirements. Cost-efficient rapid assessments of target species may provide timely information for managers and policy-advisers focusing on particular NIS at particular localities, but this cannot replace long-term monitoring. To support legislative requirements, collected data should be verified and stored in a publicly accessible and routinely updated database/information system. Public involvement should be encouraged as part of monitoring programs where feasible.