Are droughts predictable?

From a study of rainfall series at several locations, it is shown that approximate but meaningful predictions of drought-prone intervals are possible only for regions where the rainfall series have prominent periodicities (of large amplitudes) in the long periodicity region (about 10 yr or more), provided the patterns do not change abruptly and drastically. Also, rainfall for individual years cannot be predicted accurately.     

Variations of solar EUV,UV and ionospheric foF2 related to the solar rotation period

Spectral analysis of daily values of various solar indices viz. sunspot number, 10.7-cm flux, H Lyman-<alpha> and -<beta>, specific He, Fe and Mg lines and solar X-rays was carried out for two selected intervals. During interval A (May-August 1978, 123 days) the solar indices showed a prominent periodicity near 27 days, while during interval B (January-May 1979, 151 days) the solar indices showed a prominent periodicity near 13 days. For the same intervals, foF2 (max) and foF2 (average) during 1000–1500 LT were similarly analysed for the locations Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil (23○S, 45○W), and Okinawa (26○N, 128○E) and Kokubunji (36○N, 139○E) in Japan. The 27-day and 13-day periodicities in solar indices were reflected in the foF2 series, but in different relative proportions at the three locations, probably due to the interference of local aerodynamical effects. Some other periodicities were common to solar indices and foF2, while some others were present in the solar indices but not in foF2, or vice versa.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE MEIYU/BAIU RAIN BELT AND THE PERIODIC NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC

In order to investigate the effect of the factors in tower latitudes on Meiyu/Baiu front,adiagnostic analysis for the two cases during June to July of 1985 and 1986 was examined.We foundthat (1)when the tropical convective activity moves westward to 10.5-15.5′N/140°E from eastside of 10.5-15.5°N/160°E,the northward shifts of the Meiyu/Baiu rain belt occurs;(2)themain factor which results in the northward and southward shifts of Meiyu/Baiu rain belt is thoughtas the 8,18 and 30 day oscillations of the tropical convective activity around West Pacific.Meanwhile,the wave train propagating from Lake Baikal via Okhotsk Sea to the tropics couldsometimes shift Baiu rain belt southward;(3)the onsets of Meiyu in China of both cases tend totake place just when the convective activity around lower latitudes moves westward through about140°E with the 8,18 and 30 day oscillation periods firstly coming to June.     

Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

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Relationship between sunspot numbers during years of sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum

A correlation analysis shows that the sunspot numbers at the peaks of the last eight solar cycles are well-correlated with the sunspot numbers in heliolatitudes 20°–40° (specially in the southern hemisphere) occurring in the solar minimum years immediately preceding the solar maximum years.On leave from Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India.     

On the origin of the low energy cosmic rays from stellar sources

The model of stellar origin of the anomalous component in the low energy cosmic rays for He to Fe ions observed in space vehicles is studied in the light of recent results. The model of heliospheric origin by Fisket al which has several attractive features cannot explain the long-term variations of intensity observed during 1974 to 1978 as pointed out by Nagashima and Morishita. The stellar origin model of Durgaprasad and Biswas, on the other hand, can easily account for the sudden appearance of the anomalous component in 1972 and its large decrease in intensity in 1978 on the basis of polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field as discussed by Nagashima and Morishita (1980). In this work, we show that in the stellar model energetic ions of He, C, N, O, etc. could originate in O-type stars which manifest very strong stellar wind with mass loss rate of 3·10^?6 M_⊙ per year. These have terminal velocities of about 1200 to 4000 km/sec and are typically a few times their escape velocity. These velocities correspond to ion energies of 10 to 100 keV/amu. These ions are in partly ionised state and are accelerated in the interstellar shock fronts to about 1 to 50 MeV/amu and thus account for the observed anomalous component of low energy cosmic rays.     

Magnetometer Array Study in North-Northeast Brazil: Conductivity Image Building and Functional Induction Modes

—Magnetovariational fields recorded by an array of magnetometers in the equatorial region of north-northeast Brazil are analyzed to infer the configuration of internal induced currents in and around the extensive intracratonic Parnaíba basin. Only nighttime magnetovariational fields were used because of the prevailing uniform source field conditions. For periods exceeding 40 min. the vertical fields at all inland sites are dominated by the effects of electric currents originating in the northeast, in the deep Atlantic Ocean. Below this period, although best developed in the 12–15 min. period range, the anomalous signatures are principally controlled by two distinct continental current paths. The first is associated with a N60°E trending graben-like structure in the southeastern part of the basin (named the Parnaíba Basin Conductivity Anomaly—PBCA) and the second appears as a subsurface sedimentary channel, from the NW corner of the array to the central part of the basin. This is named the LINK anomaly, as it connects the northwestern Marajó basin with the Parnaíba basin. While the PBCA is shown to highlight the importance of basement tectonics in the geological evolution of the Parnaíba basin, the LINK anomaly provides strong geophysical evidence of the direction of the sea intrusion into the region of the basin and possibly indicates the connectivity of the Parnaíba basin to the adjoining Amazon basin through the Marajó basin. Frequency and polarization dependence suggest that the induction response of individual structures is not determined by the local conductivity alone but also by their interconnectivity as well as by their linkage to the continental shelf and deep oceanic region.