数值预报产品在夏季持续高温预报中的释用

利用 1999～ 2 0 0 2年 6～ 8月 96～ 192h日本数值预报产品 85 0hPa气温与吉林省的日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温 (长春市 )资料 ,通过线性分析 ,找出了日本数值预报产品的 85 0hPa气温与吉林省地面日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温的对应关系 :吉林省 6～ 8月日平均气温在 96～ 192h的 85 0hPa日本数值预报长春站日平均值上加 6 6～ 4 1℃ ,6～ 8月的极端最高气温在相应的日本数值预报产品上加 9 3～ 13 0℃。     

Variations of Hydrodynamics and Submarine Groundwater Discharge in the Yellow River Estuary Under the Influence of the Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme

The “Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme” (WSRS) is critically important to the hydrologic evaluation of the Yellow River estuary since a huge pulse of water and sediment are delivered into the sea during a short period. We used the natural geochemical tracers radium (²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra) and radon (²²²Rn) isotopes as well as other hydrological parameters to investigate the mixing variations and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the Yellow River estuary under the influence of the 2013 WSRS. Dramatically elevated radium and radon isotopic activities were observed during this WSRS compared with activities measured during a non-WSRS period. Radium “water ages” indicated that the offshore transport rate nearly tripled when the river discharge increased from 400 to 3400 m³/s. We calculated the SGD flux in the Yellow River estuary based on a radium mass balance model as well as radium and radon time-series models. The SGD flux was estimated at 0.02~0.20 m/day during a non-WSRS period and 0.67~1.22 m/day during the 2013 WSRS period. The results also indicate that large river discharge tends to lead more intense SGD along the river channel direction with a large amount of fresh SGD.     

4种蒸发波导模型的对比与分析

蒸发波导模型常用来计算海上蒸发波导高度。为了认识当前不同蒸发波导模型之间的差异和方法,本文选取了目前使用广泛的4种蒸发波导模型(即P-J模型、Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型)进行对比和分析。本文首先探讨了在理想情况下它们对气象要素的敏感性,随后并利用我国南海近海大气层观测试验数据对比了这4种模型的蒸发波导高度计算结果。分析表明:相对湿度、风速和气—海温差的变化对4种模型的计算都有着较大的影响,特别是在不稳定层结状况下,4种模型计算得到的蒸发波导高度都随着相对湿度的增大而降低、随着风速的增大而增高。Babin模型和NPS模型计算的波导高度较为一致,伪折射率模型与前两种模型的计算结果存在差异,而P-J模型与其他3种模型存在较明显的偏差。基于南海气象数据的计算结果表明,不同蒸发波导模型在该海域蒸发波导的模拟结果略有不同,但4种模型计算得到的波导高度日变化变化趋势较为一致,波导高度极低值常出现在早晨,而极高值常出现在傍晚。     

Effect of Atmospheric Haze on the Deterioration of Visibility over the Pearl River Delta

The studies on the effect of atmospheric aerosol on climate and environment are hot issues in the current circle of international science and technology. In recent years the pollution of aerosol is getting worse and worse over the Pearl River Delta. The clouds of aerosol occur all year round, with heavy pollution area located at the western side at the mouth of Pearl River. The haze weather mainly occurs from October to April next year, resulting in visibility deterioration. From the beginning of 1980s, visibility dramatically deteriorated, obviously increasing haze weather, in which there are three big fluctuations, showing the periods of pollutions of dust, sulphate and dust, fine particle from photochemical process and sulphate and dust accompanying with the development of economy respectively. The long-term tendency of visibility caused by fog and light fog does not show a tendency due to human activities or economic development, which mainly shows the interannual and interdecadal variation of climate. The deterioration of visibility has close relation to the fine particles over Pearl River Delta, with half of PM10 overpass the limited value set by national second graded standard (150μg m-3), meanwhile, all values of PM2.5 overpass the day-mean limited value of American national standard (65μg m-3), especially from October to January next year, monthly mean values of PM2.5 almost reach two times of standard value, indicating the fine particle concentration is very high. The ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 is also very high, reaching 58%-77%, higher especially in dry season than in rainy season. Thus it is the fine particle pollution in aerosol pollution over the Pearl River Delta. Compared with the data of 15 years ago, the ratio of fine particle to aerosol has obviously increased.     

贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性及生计干预——以陇南山区为例

增强贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性不仅是新时期农村扶贫的现实需求,更是推动乡村振兴的客观要求。论文从生计资本、生计策略及生计环境出发,建立了脱贫农户的生计可持续性评价指标体系,利用陇南山区脱贫农户的入户调查资料,评估贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性、识别脱贫农户的生计障碍。研究发现:① 从川坝河谷区、半山区到高山区,从早期脱贫到后期脱贫,脱贫农户的生计可持续性依次降低,且务工型与农工互补型脱贫农户的生计可持续性强于其他生计方式农户;② 陇南山区生计不可持续脱贫农户比重达28.83%,高山区、传统务农型及后期脱贫户中生计不可持续农户比重较高,而川坝河谷区、农工互补型与务工型及早期脱贫户中该比重较低;③ 生计不可持续脱贫户均面临着多元生计障碍,其中近2/3的农户面临多维资本—环境阻滞型与多重要素阻滞型障碍;④ 针对生计不可持续脱贫农户面临的多元生计障碍,需分类实施多维生计干预。     

Esophageal cancer spatial and correlation analyses：Water pollution,mortality rates,and safe buffer distances in China

Esophageal cancer exhibits one of the highest incidence and mortality rates in China. Malignant tumors caused by esophageal cancer, and the relationship to environmental factors has been the focus of many public health studies. This study applied spatial analysis to ascertain the relationship between water pollution and esophageal cancer mortality rates nationwide. We employed two datasets, including a national investigation of esophageal cancer rates and distribution, and national water quality grades in China's primary rivers and lakes. Esophageal cancer data were grouped based on different water quality grades, which included a scaled buffer distance from rivers and lakes. Non-parametric correlation analyses were performed to examine the presence or absence of the following correlations: (i) esophageal cancer mortality and buffer distance from rivers and lakes; and (ii) esophageal cancer mortality and water quality grade values. The present study revealed a significant positive correlation between widespread water pollution and esophageal cancer mortality nationwide; and a significant negative correlation between esophageal cancer mortality, and buffer distance from rivers and lakes.     

地表城市热岛效应的概念内涵与定量刻画

明晰城市热岛（UHI）效应相关概念内涵、厘清其定量刻画方法是有效开展UHI效应研究的重要基础。全球城市化进程使UHI效应越发普遍,相关研究数量迅速增长并出现了UHI效应的多样认知,尤其对具有空间异质性表征优势的地表城市热岛（SUHI）效应开发了多样的定量刻画方法,但目前尚缺乏对其定量刻画方法的系统梳理。因此,本文对城市热岛、城市热岛效应、地表温度和城市热环境等易混淆概念进行了辨析,总结了各类UHI典型空间位置和尺度范围。在SUHI效应定量刻画中,将SUHI范围识别方法归结为城乡温度阈值、温度等级阈值、高斯拟合参数、温度衰减突变四大类,指出当前SUHI范围识别研究侧重于对SUHI影响规模的认知。研究同时对各类范围识别方法所对应的SUHI强度表征指标进行了梳理,认为理解指标本质内涵是掌握指标间潜在差异的前提。未来研究应整合多维度数据以突破单一SUHI监测途径,发展大尺度SUHI定量刻画方法以拓展定量研究的广度,认知连通化SUHI空间形态以挖掘范围识别研究的深度。     

帮扶措施对山区脱贫农户生计策略选择的影响——以陇南山区为例

帮扶措施不仅是构建稳定脱贫长效机制的关键举措,更是推进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接的客观要求。论文构建了帮扶措施对农户生计策略选择的影响分析框架,利用入户调查数据,在辨明帮扶措施及生计策略选择特征的基础上,探讨了影响陇南山区脱贫户生计策略选择的关键因素。结果表明：① 陇南山区有59.84%的脱贫户享受了多元帮扶措施,其中,享受最多的多元帮扶措施为产业扶贫+生态补偿扶贫,享受最多的单一帮扶措施为生态补偿扶贫;② 陇南山区脱贫户的生计策略以务工主导型为主,呈农业特色化、非农化和多样化的特点;③ 陇南山区脱贫户生计策略选择的路径依赖性整体呈中等水平,其中,川坝河谷区农户、老年农户和低生计资本禀赋的农户生计策略选择的路径依赖性较强,且帮扶措施对其有调节作用;④ 社会资本、人力资本、金融资本和区位条件对农户的生计策略选择有显著影响;产业扶贫和电商扶贫对农户的特色务农型生计策略选择有正向影响,生态补偿扶贫和就业扶贫对农户的非农化生计策略选择有正向影响。最后,提出了优化农户生计策略的政策建议。     

多重压力对重点生态功能区农户生计资产可得性的影响——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

重点生态功能区主要承担着提供持续、稳定生态服务的功能,农户作为维护其主体功能的最基础单元和该区最主要的经济活动主体,面临着自然、社会、政策等多重压力,其交互作用不仅加剧了农户的生计脆弱性,更影响到该区主体功能的发挥,当前急需辨明多重压力对农户生计的影响,以便寻求有效的生计脆弱性减缓对策。本文以甘南黄河水源补给区为例,运用入户调查数据与有序Logistic回归模型等方法在识别农户遭受关键压力的基础上,进一步探讨生计压力的交互作用对生计资产可得性的影响。结果显示：① 甘南黄河水源补给区大多数农户遭受自然+经济型多重压力,其中,重点保护区、恢复治理区及经济示范区农户遭受的多重压力分别以自然+经济型、自然+经济型、经济+社会型为主。② 在多重压力的冲击下,重点保护区与恢复治理区农户除了社会资产可得性变化处于稳定状态,其余各类资产可得性变化几乎处于降低态势,而经济示范区农户的金融资产与社会资产的可得性变化处于稳定状态,其余各类资产可得性变化均处于降低态势。③ 婚嫁支出高与农牧产品价格下降、牲畜患病与人畜饮用水困难、子女学费支出高+婚嫁支出高+农牧产品价格下降+养老无保障、建房开支高与生态政策、子女就业困难与农业病虫害等压力的交互作用分别对自然资产、物质资产、金融资产、社会资产、人力资产等的可得性变化影响最强烈。     

河南省地壳结构和深断裂简述

利用重磁资料正反演计算，获得了一系列的地壳深部资料。多种资料综合反映了河南省深部构造的主要特征。本文论述了我省地壳层状结构的特点和深断裂带的划分。首次提出黄河南断裂带、驻马店－桐柏断裂带为超壳断裂带；确山－固始断裂带、南阳断裂带为地壳断裂带。