Variability in oceanographic and ecological processes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

This paper brings together unpublished historical data sets and published literature to review the role of climatic, oceanographic and ecological processes in the marine ecosystem of the eastern Canadian Archipelago. Physical data include characteristics of the water masses, circulation patterns, sea ice conditions, and climatic records from 1950s onward. Biological data include unpublished data sets on nutrients, primary and secondary production, and sedimentation, which were collected during the 1980–1990s in the eastern Canadian Archipelago. These results show high year-to-year variability in nutrient inventories and ratios, the magnitude of the ice algae and phytoplankton bloom, the timing of ice algae sedimentation in the spring, and the composition of the zooplankton community. The significance of this high interannual variability and its effect on pelagic–benthic coupling processes is discussed in the context of climatic and oceanographic forcing, with emphasis on recent (past decade) Arctic changes. An estimate of total primary production in the Archipelago is also presented, along with published production estimates for other Arctic shelves, showing that the Archipelago may support up to 32% of the total primary production of Arctic shelves. The high year-to-year variability in production and carbon transfer pathways (e.g. pelagic versus benthic) in the Archipelago suggest that the system might be resilient to the increased variability in climatic conditions occurring in the past decade. However, this increased variability combined with directional change in climatic and oceanographic conditions might also modify the existing balance of ecological processes. For example, shifts in the timing of events appear to have already occurred in the past decade, with potential cascading effects throughout the ecosystem.     

Late Holocene δC and pollen records of paleosalinity from tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay estuary, California

Records of stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) are presented from cores collected from four San Francisco Bay marshes and used as a proxy for changes in estuary salinity. The δ¹³C value of organic marsh sediments are a reflection of the relative proportion of C₃ vs. C₄ plants occupying the surface, and can thus be used as a proxy for vegetation change on the marsh surface. The four marshes included in this study are located along a natural salinity gradient that exists in the San Francisco Bay, and records of vegetation change at all four sites can be used to infer changes in overall estuary paleosalinity. The δ¹³C values complement pollen data from the same marsh sites producing a paleoclimate record for the late Holocene period in the San Francisco Bay estuary. The data indicate that there have been periods of higher-than-average salinity in the Bay estuary (reduced fresh water inflow), including 1600-1300 cal yr B.P., 1000-800 cal yr B.P., 300-200 cal yr B.P., and ca. A.D. 1950 to the present. Periods of lower-than-average salinity (increased fresh water inflow) occurred before 2000 cal yr B.P., from 1300 to 1200 cal yr B.P. and ca. 150 cal yr B.P. to A.D. 1950. A comparison of the timing of these events with records from the California coast, watershed, and beyond the larger drainage of the Bay reveals that the paleosalinity variations reflected regional precipitation.     

Propagation of coastal‐trapped waves under an ice cover in Hudson Bay*

Abstract

Three arrays of current‐meter moorings were deployed under landfast sea ice in southeast Hudson Bay for eight weeks in spring 1986. Spectral analysis shows low‐frequency signals with periods of 3 to 11 days. These signals are interpreted as being due to coastal‐trapped waves propagating cyclonically in Hudson Bay; their theoretical dispersion relations and corresponding modal structures are presented for winter stratification and are compared with observations. At a period of 3 days both the modified external Kelvin wave and higher mode continental shelf waves may be important in describing the observed low‐frequency variability, whereas at a period of 10 days the Kelvin wave appears to be the dominant mode. The generation mechanisms for these coastal trapped waves are also investigated. Two sources have been studied: the longshore atmospheric pressure gradient and the average atmospheric pressure over the ice cover in Hudson Bay. Coherence and phase analyses performed with time series of longshore current and atmospheric forcing data reveal that both the average atmospheric pressure and the longshore atmospheric pressure gradient are important in explaining the observed low‐frequency variability, without indicating which one is the most important.     

Changes in current regime and turbidity in response to a freshwater pulse in the eastmain estuary

In September 1984, the freshwater input to the Eastmain River (James Bay, Canada) was increased by a factor of 50 over a 6-d period during a controlled reservoir discharge. Changes to the current, salinity and turbidity regimes were monitored during the peak runoff. Estuarine salinity values fell rapidly with increasing mean flow, as did the amplitude of the semi-diurnal tidal currents. A large increase in bottom shear stress dispersed the settled suspension layer into the water column, raising concentrations of suspended matter in the estuary by a factor of 4 in 3 d. The peak values exceeded 150 mg I^?1. This led to erosion of the river silt deposits, with the export of an estimated 6 × 10⁴ metric tons of sediments. After the reduction of discharge, current values returned to their normal range within a day, whereas upstream salinity intrusion occurred at a slower rate. Horizontal diffusivities of about 100 m² s^?1 were required to match the observed lag.     

Sulfur Concentration in Geochemical Reference Materials by Solution Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Mass Spectrometry

With implications for the origin of ore deposits, redox state of the atmosphere, and effects of volcanic outgassing, understanding the sulfur cycle is vital to our investigation of Earth processes. However, the paucity of sulfur concentration measurements in silicate rocks and the lack of well‐calibrated reference materials with concentrations relevant to the rocks of interest have hindered such investigations. To aid in this endeavour, this study details a new method to determine sulfur concentration via high mass resolution solution inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS). The method is based on an aqua regia leach, involving relatively rapid sample preparation and analysis, and uses small test portion masses (< 50 mg). We utilised two independently prepared standard solutions to calibrate the analyses, resulting in 4% accuracy, and applied the method to eight geochemical reference materials. Measurements were reproducible to within ~ 10%. Sulfur concentrations and isotopes of six reference materials were measured additionally by elemental analyser‐combustion‐isotope ratio mass spectrometry to independently evaluate the accuracy of the ICP‐MS method. Reference materials that yielded reproducible measurements identical to published values from other laboratories (JGb‐1, JGb‐2 and MAG‐1) are considered useful materials for the measurement of sulfur. Reference materials that varied between studies but were reproducible for a given test portion perhaps suffer from sample heterogeneity and are not recommended as sulfur reference materials.     

Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs

The use of radiative kernels to diagnose climate feedbacks is a recent development that may be applied to existing climate change simulations. We apply the radiative kernel technique to transient simulations from a multi-thousand member perturbed physics ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, comparing distributions of model feedbacks with those taken from the CMIP-3 multi GCM ensemble. Although the range of clear sky longwave feedbacks in the perturbed physics ensemble is similar to that seen in the multi-GCM ensemble, the kernel technique underestimates the net clear-sky feedbacks (or the radiative forcing) in some perturbed models with significantly altered humidity distributions. In addition, the compensating relationship between global mean atmospheric lapse rate feedback and water vapor feedback is found to hold in the perturbed physics ensemble, but large differences in relative humidity distributions in the ensemble prevent the compensation from holding at a regional scale. Both ensembles show a similar range of response of global mean net cloud feedback, but the mean of the perturbed physics ensemble is shifted towards more positive values such that none of the perturbed models exhibit a net negative cloud feedback. The perturbed physics ensemble contains fewer models with strong negative shortwave cloud feedbacks and has stronger compensating positive longwave feedbacks. A principal component analysis used to identify dominant modes of feedback variation reveals that the perturbed physics ensemble produces very different modes of climate response to the multi-model ensemble, suggesting that one may not be used as an analog for the other in estimates of uncertainty in future response. Whereas in the multi-model ensemble, the first order variation in cloud feedbacks shows compensation between longwave and shortwave components, in the perturbed physics ensemble the shortwave feedbacks are uncompensated, possibly explaining the larger range of climate sensitivities observed in the perturbed simulations. Regression analysis suggests that the parameters governing cloud formation, convection strength and ice fall speed are the most significant in altering climate feedbacks. Perturbations of oceanic and sulfur cycle parameters have relatively little effect on the atmospheric feedbacks diagnosed by the kernel technique.     

Book review

Offshore Soil Mechanics edited by Philip George and David Wood. Cambridge University Engineering Department and Lloyd's Register of Shipping, London, 1976. 468 pp. £7.50 + shipping.

Beach Processes and Sedimentation by Paul D. Komar. Prentice‐Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1976. 429 pp., $26.95.     

Towards the Construction of Climate Change Scenarios

Climate impacts assessments need regional scenarios of climate change for a wide range of projected emissions. General circulation models (GCMs) are the most promising approach to providing such information, but as yet there is considerable uncertainty in their regional projections and they are still too costly to run for a large number of emission scenarios. Simpler models have been used to estimate global-mean temperature changes under a range of scenarios. In this paper we investigate whether a fixed pattern from a GCM experiment scaled by global-mean temperature changes from a simple model provides an acceptable estimate of the regional climate change over a range of scenarios. Changes estimated using this approximate approach are evaluated by comparing them with results from ensembles of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Five specific emissions scenarios are considered. For increases in greenhouse gases only, the 'error' in annual mean temperature for the cases considered is smaller than the sampling error due to the model's internal variability. The method may break down for scenarios of stabilisation of concentrations, because the patterns change as the model approaches equilibrium. The inclusion of large local perturbations due to sulphate aerosols can lead to significant deviations of the temperature pattern from that obtained using greenhouse gases alone. Combining separate patterns for the responses to greenhouse gases and aerosols may improve the accuracy of approximation. Finally, the accuracy of the scaling approach is more difficult to assess for deriving changes in regional precipitation because many of the regional changes are not statistically significant in the climate change projections considered here. If precipitation changes are only marginally significant in other models, the apparent disagreement between different models may be as much due to sampling error as to genuine differences in model response.     

Particulate matter exchange across a Rjord sill

Recent studies have indicated the existence of a considerably higher planktonic biomass in the deep waters of the Saguenay Fjord as compared to corresponding depths in the adjacent St Lawrence Estuary on the other side of a shallow sill. The hypothesis that has been put forward to explain this phenomenon is related to the advection of near surface estuarine waters, at times very rich in particulate matter, over the entrance sill into the deeper waters of the fjord. Mixing processes associated with the development of a density flow, the presence of a hydraulic jump or other mechanisms are assumed to be responsible for the common occurrence of lower density subsurface water within the basin as compared to that penetrating over the sill.The exchange processes between the estuary and the fjord are described and an estimate made of the estuarine water volume that penetrates into the lower layer of the fjord over a semidiurnal tide cycle. From these calculations, the replacement time for the outer basin was estimated to range between one and four days. The biological characteristics of this water were used to establish a budget for particulate matter exchange which showed, in early August, a typical net input of ? 188 t of particulate organic carbon into the deep waters of the fjord over one tide cycle.