Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence.     

Geophysical constraints on mesozoic disruption of North China Craton by underplating‐triggered lower‐crust flow of the Archaean lithosphere

The mechanism of the disruption, both lithospheric thinning and oceanization of the commonly accepted long‐term‐stable Archaean craton, is still an open question. The available models, all imply a bottom to top process. With the construction of a 1660‐km‐long transect across the eastern North China Craton (NCC), we demonstrate that both the P‐wave velocity and density in the lowermost crust beneath the central section are significantly higher than in the corresponding parts of the south and north sections on the transect. These features are interpreted as geophysical signature of lower crustal underplating, which supplies sufficiently high gravitational potential energy to trigger lateral flow of the lower crust. This magma underplating‐triggered bilateral lower crust flow may facilitate the lithospheric thinning by means of asthenosphere upwelling and decompression melting, which infill the gap produced by the lower crust flow. The underplating‐triggered lower crustal flow can provide an alternative mechanism to explain the NCC lithosphere disruption, which highlights the crustal feedback to Archaean lithosphere disruption, from top to bottom.     

The objective determination of the instantaneous predominant frequency of seismic signals and inferences onQ of coda waves

A technique to detect spectrum variations versus time along seismic signals is applied to coda waves of local earthquakes (Friuli, Northern Italy). The technique consists of an autoregressive modeling and utilizes nonlinear spectral analysis where the spectrum of stochastic processes is estimated as the transfer function of the filter that whitens the process under analysis. This approach appears to be particularly well suited to those investigations where automatic measurements of the instantaneous frequency have to be carried out on digital data. The detection of variations of the instantaneous frequency along the coda allows computation of seismic-Q in the lithosphere and its frequency dependence: the result obtained is $$Q = 100f^{0.4} $$ which appears to be strongly consistent with that, based on the estimate of the coda amplitude decay in the band including the most significant frequencies of the signals under analysis.     

Site response using coda-wave techniques: Applications to short period data from central and southern Italy

The method of coda waves was applied to two different sets of data for the evaluation of the relative site response.The first set of data consists of low magnitude earthquakes with closely spaced locations, recorded at a small aperture array of velocimeters located in the Abruzzo region, central Italy. The second set of data is composed of events with epicentral distance ranging from 20 to 300 km, recorded at a seismological network with an aperture of about 100 km located in the Puglia region, southern Italy.Results show that the coda wave method furnishes stable estimates of the site effect. An amplification, relative to an arbitrary site, of a factor of about 2 occurs in the 1.7–6 Hz frequency band for two stations of the Abruzzo network, while an amplification factor of about 0.5 occurs in the whole frequency band (1–24 Hz) for one of the stations of the Puglia network. This station is located in an area which is correlated with a low macroseismic intensity anomaly.     

Truncated model of a barotropic atmosphere with a periodic forcing

The effect of variations in time of the zonal flow is investigated by the study of a simplified truncated model of a barotropic atmosphere in the presence of an oscillating zonal forcing. Long-time numerical simulations of a triadic model in spherical geometry are carried out for various values of both the frequency and the amplitude of the oscillating part of the zonal forcing. It is found that the reaction of the system to simple sinusoidal forcing is characterized, as happens for strongly nonlinear systems, by complicated trajectories in the phase-space and that the spectrum of the zonal component is much more complicated than that of the forcing function, with interesting relative maxima in the range of very low climatological frequencies. Moreover it is shown that, for proper values of both the frequency and the amplitude of the sinusoidally oscillating part of the forcing function, our simplified model of the large-scale planetary circulation oscillates between an essentially zonal regime (a flow pattern dominated by the zonal flow component) and a wave regime (a flow pattern characterized by significant values of the meridional component of the velocity field associated with the wave components). The transitions between the two regimes are strongly asymmetric: in fact, the time needed for a wave-like flow to evolve into an essentially zonal one is, in the limit of our model, typically 4 to 5 times greater than that needed for the inverse transition. The results are intuitively interpreted in the limit of very long periods of the oscillations of the forcing function. Other interesting features of the results are considered.     

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure in the Caribbean Region by Group Velocity Tomography and Regionalization

An overview of the crust and upper mantle structure of Central America and the Caribbean region is presented as a result of the processing of more than 200 seismograms recorded by digital broadband stations from SSSN and GSN seismic networks. Group velocity dispersion curves are obtained in the period range from 10s to 40s by FTAN analysis of the fundamental mode of the Rayleigh waves; the error of these measurements varies from 0.06 and 0.09 km/s. From the dispersion curve, seven tomographic maps at different periods and with average spatial resolution of 500 km are obtained. Using the logical combinatorial classification techniques, eight main groups of dispersion curves are determined from the tomographic maps and eleven main regions, each one characterized by one kind of dispersion curves, are identified. The average dispersion curves obtained for each region are extended to 150s by adding data from a larger-scale tomographic study (Vdovin et al., 1999) and inverted using a nonlinear procedure. A set of models of the S-wave velocity vs. depth in the crust and upper mantle is found as a result of the inversion process. In six regions we identify a typically oceanic crust and upper mantle structure, while in the other two the models are consistent with the presence of a continental structure. Two regions, located over the major geological zones of the accretionary crust of the Caribbean region, are characterized by a peculiar crust and upper mantle structure, indicating the presence of lithospheric roots reaching, at least, about 200 km of depth.     

Seismotectonic models and CN algorithm: The case of Italy

The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Natural background levels and threshold values derivation for naturally As, V and F rich groundwater bodies: a methodological case study in Central Italy

Natural background levels (NBL) and threshold values (TV) derivation is an important task for EU Member States to correctly assess the chemical status of groundwater bodies within the context of the recently adopted Groundwater Directive. Attempts are being made both by water authorities and scientific community to test application viability of proposed methods to different real situations and to develop tailored adjustments and refinements. The aim of this paper is to describe a methodological case study of NBL and TV determination in a large area (5,500 km²) located in Central Italy where both natural and anthropogenic contamination occurs, resulting in several substances be detected in ground waters with concentration frequently exceeding drinking water standards. This paper shows the key role played in the determination process by knowledge on the hydrogeological setting and hydrogeochemical features. The adoption of appropriate pre-selection criteria of samples, the establishment of TV at the groundwater body scale for natural origin substances, and the evaluation of TVs exceedances in a multiparameter context are experimentally discussed. Beyond the critical evaluation of NBL and TV determination method, this research aims at increasing consciousness in the water management agencies that groundwater status assessment should be conceived as a scientific evaluation procedure and not as a mere technical/administrative exercise to be performed using any set of available data. As such, it should be supported by adequate knowledge of hydrogeological setting, hydrochemical processes occurring in groundwater bodies, and human activities acting overland to be progressively verified.