Wildfire preparedness,community cohesion and social–ecological systems

The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.     

Bayesian foreground analysis with CMB data

The quality of CMB observations has improved dramatically in the last few years, and will continue to do so in the coming decade. Over a wide range of angular scales, the uncertainty due to instrumental noise is now small compared to the cosmic variance. One may claim with some justification that we have entered the era of precision CMB cosmology. However, some caution is still warranted: The errors due to residual foreground contamination in the CMB power spectrum and cosmological parameters remain largely unquantified, and the effect of these errors on important cosmological parameters such as the optical depth τ and spectral index n_s is not obvious. A major goal for current CMB analysis efforts must therefore be to develop methods that allow us to propagate such uncertainties from the raw data through to the final products. Here we review a recently proposed method that may be a first step towards that goal.     

No Higher Criticism of the Bianchi-corrected Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data

Higher Criticism (HC) has been proposed by Donoho & Jin as an effective statistic to detect deviations from Gaussianity. Motivated by the success of the Bianchi VII_h model in addressing many of the anomalies observed in the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ) data (Jaffe et al.), we present calculations in real and in wavelet space of the HC statistic of the Bianchi-corrected WMAP first-year data. At the wavelet scale of 5°, the HC of the WMAP map drops from a value above the 99 per cent confidence level (c.l.) to a value below the 68 per cent CL when corrected by the Bianchi template. An important property of the HC statistic is its ability to locate the pixels that account for the deviation from Gaussianity. The analysis of the uncorrected WMAP data pointed to a cold spot in the Southern hemisphere, centred at   l ∼ 209°, b ∼−57°  . The HC of the Bianchi-corrected map indicates that this spot remains prominent, albeit at a level completely consistent with Gaussian statistics. Consequently, it is debatable how much emphasis should be placed on this residual feature, but we consider the effect of modestly increasing the scaling of the template. A factor of only 1.2 renders the spot indistinguishable from the background level, with no noticeable impact on the results published in Jaffe et al. for the low- l anomalies, large-scale power asymmetry or wavelet kurtosis. A trivial interpretation would be that the Bianchi template may require a small enhancement of power on scales corresponding to the wavelet scale of 5°.     

The evershed effect as a wave phenomenon

It is suggested that longitudinal compression waves are propagating parallel to the solar surface from the umbra towards the photosphere. It is shown that the line-absorption coefficient is asymmetrical, when integrated over a wavelength of the compression wave. The effect of the waves on the line profile is discussed, and it is shown that asymmetrical line profiles of the type observed in sunspot penumbrae will be produced.With the Evershed effect interpreted as an acoustical wave phenomenon the propagation (of the waves) may also be perpendicular to the magnetic lines of force, whereas material motion is likely to be restricted to the direction along the lines of force.     

The Retention,Revival, and Subjugation of Indigenous Fire Knowledge through Agency Fire Fighting in Eastern Australia and California

This article explores the potential impact of training and employment with wildfire management agencies on the retention of Indigenous fire knowledge. It focuses on the comparative knowledge and experiences of Indigenous Elders, cultural practitioners, and land stewards in connection with “modern” political constructs of fire in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia, and California in the United States of America. This article emphasises the close link between cross-cultural acceptance, integration of Indigenous and agency fire cultures, and the ways in which knowledge types are shared or withheld. While agency fire fighting provides an opportunity for Indigenous people to connect and care for country, it simultaneously allows for the breaking of traditional rules surrounding what knowledge is shared with whom in the context of Indigenous cultural burning. By highlighting how privilege intersects with ethnicity, class, gender and age, this article demonstrates how greater cross-cultural acceptance could aid ongoing debates on how to coexist with wildfire today.     

Extensive serendipitous X-ray coverage of a flare star with ROSAT

We report the serendipitous discovery of a flare star observed with the ROSAT X-ray observatory. From optical spectra, which show strong and variable emission lines of the hydrogen Balmer series and neutral helium, we classify this object as a M3.0Ve star, and estimate a distance of 52 pc from published photometry. Owing to the close proximity of the star (13.6 arcmin) to the calibration source and RS CVn binary AR Lacertae, long-term X-ray coverage is available in the ROSAT archive (∼50 h spanning 6.5 yr). Two large flare events occurred early in the mission (1990 June–July), and the end of a third flare was detected in 1996 June. One flare, observed with the Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC), had a peak luminosity L _X=1.1×10³⁰ erg s⁻¹, an e-folding rise time of 2.2 h and a decay time of 7 h. This decay time is one of the longest detected on a dMe star, providing evidence for the possibility of additional heating during the decay phase. A large High Resolution Imager (HRI) flare (peak L _X=2.9×10³⁰ erg s⁻¹) is also studied. The 'background' X-ray emission is also variable – evidence for low-level flaring or microflaring. We find that 59 per cent of the HRI counts and 68 per cent of the PSPC counts are caused by flares. At least 41 per cent of the HRI exposure time and 47 per cent of the PSPC are affected by detectable flare enhancement.     

Effect of surface albedo, water vapour, and atmospheric aerosols on the cloud-free shortwave radiative budget in the Arctic

This study is based on ground-based measurements of downward surface shortwave irradiance (SW), columnar water vapour (wv), and aerosol optical depth (τ) obtained at Thule Air Base (Greenland) in 2007–2010, together with MODIS observations of the surface shortwave albedo (A). Radiative transfer model calculations are used in combination with measurements to separate the radiative effect of A (ΔSW_A), wv (ΔSW_wv), and aerosols (ΔSW_τ) in modulating SW in cloud-free conditions. The shortwave radiation at the surface is mainly affected by water vapour absorption, which produces a reduction of SW as low as ?100 Wm^?2 (?18%). The seasonal change of A produces an increase of SW by up to +25 Wm^?2 (+4.5%). The annual mean radiative effect is estimated to be ?(21–22) Wm^?2 for wv, and +(2–3) Wm^?2 for A. An increase by +0.065 cm in the annual mean wv, to which corresponds an absolute increase in ΔSW_wv by 0.93 Wm^?2 (4.3%), has been observed to occur between 2007 and 2010. In the same period, the annual mean A has decreased by ?0.027, with a corresponding decrease in ΔSW_A by 0.41 Wm^?2 (?14.9%). Atmospheric aerosols produce a reduction of SW as low as ?32 Wm^?2 (?6.7%). The instantaneous aerosol radiative forcing (RF_τ) reaches values of ?28 Wm^?2 and shows a strong dependency on surface albedo. The derived radiative forcing efficiency (FE_τ) for solar zenith angles between 55° and 70° is estimated to be (?120.6 ± 4.3) for 0.1 < A < 0.2, and (?41.2 ± 1.6) Wm^?2 for 0.5 < A < 0.6.     

Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance

The need to mainstream adaptation to climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision-making is increasingly recognised, and several bilateral and multilateral development agencies are starting to take an interest. Over the past years at least six development agencies have screened their project portfolios, generally with two goals in mind: (1) to ascertain the extent to which existing development projects already consider climate risks or address vulnerability to climate variability and change, and (2) to identify opportunities for incorporating climate change explicitly into future projects. As each portfolio screening was conducted independently, the broader lessons emerging from the screenings have not been systematically analysed. In this paper we assess the screening activities to date, focusing on both the results and the methods applied. Based on this assessment we identify opportunities for development agencies to expand their current focus on the links between climate and development. Most agencies already consider climate change as a real but uncertain threat to future development, but they have given less thought to how different development patterns might affect vulnerability to climate change. The screenings undertaken have shown the need to take a comprehensive approach to adaptation and its integration into development planning and sectoral decision-making, and a number of policy initiatives have been taken to promote such integration. We provide some initial guidance as to how portfolio screening can be carried out in a way that would allow agencies to assess systematically the relevance of climate change to their ongoing and planned development projects.     

Comparison of geomorphological field mapping and 2D‐InSAR mapping of periglacial landscape activity at Nordnesfjellet,northern Norway

The ability to continuously monitor the dynamic response of periglacial landforms in a climate change context is of increasing scientific interest. Satellite radar interferometry provides information on surface displacement that can be related to periglacial processes. Here we present a comparison of two‐dimensional (2D) surface displacement rates and geomorphological mapping at periglacial landform and sediment scale from the mountain Nordnesfjellet in northern Norway. Hence, 2D Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) results stem from a 2009–2014 TerraSAR‐X dataset from ascending and descending orbits, decomposed into horizontal displacement vectors along an east–west plane, vertical displacement vectors and combined displacement velocity. Geomorphological mapping was carried out on aerial imagery and validated in the field. This detailed landform and sediment type mapping revealed an altitudinal distribution dominated by, weathered bedrock blockfields, surrounded primarily by slightly, to non‐vegetated solifluction landforms at the mountain tops. Below, an active rockslide and associated rockfall deposits are located on the steep east‐facing side of the study area, whereas glacial sediments dominate on the gentler western side. We show that 2D InSAR correctly depicts displacement rates that can be associated with typical deformation patterns for flat‐lying or inclined landforms, within and below the regional permafrost limit, for both wet and dry areas. A net lowering of the entire landscape caused by general denudation of the periglacial landforms and sediments is here quantified for the first time using radar remote sensing. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.