Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

Sea-level, sediment supply and coastal changes: Examples from the coast of Ireland

Sediment supply and pre-existing shoreline morphology are crucial factors in controlling coastal changes due to sea-level rise. Using examples from both southeast and northeast Ireland, it can be shown that sea-level change may trigger a sequence of events which leads to both static and dynamic shoreline equilibrium. Cliff erosion and longshore sediment movement in east Co. Wexford has led to injection of sediment onto the shelf, and the growth, under both wave and tide regimes, of linear offshore shoals. These shoals now control the pattern of shoreline erosion and provide a template for possible stepwise evolution of the coast under any future sea-level rise. In contrast, the nearby coast of south Co. Wexford comprises a series of coarse clastic barriers moving monotonously onshore, via overwash processes. Here the behavior of the barrier is conditioned by the antecedent morphology of both the beach face and stream outlet bedforms. Finally, the rock platform coast of Co. Antrim presents a far more resistant shoreline to incident marine processes, yet even here there is strong evidence of present process control over so-called ‘raised’ platforms and embayments. It is concluded that coastal sediment supply and dynamics, together with coastal morphology and its interaction with waves, present a far more complex variety of sea-level indicators than is normally acknowledged.     

The abyssal bounty fan and lower Bounty Channel: evolution of a rifted-margin sedimentary system

The Bounty Channel and Fan system provides the basis for a model for deep-sea channel and fan development in a rifted continental margin setting. The sedimentary system results from an interplay between tectonics (fan location; sediment source), turbidity currents (sediment supply), geostrophic currents (sediment reworking and distribution) and climate (sea level, and hence sediment supply and type). Today, sediment is shed from the collisional Southern Alps, part of the Pacific/Indo-Australian plate margin, and passes east across the adjacent shelf and into the Otago Fan complex at the head of the Bounty Trough. Paths of sediment supply, and locations of sediment deposition, are controlled by the bathymetry of the Bounty Trough, with axial slopes as high as 37 m/km (2°) towards the trough head, diminishing to around 3.5 m/km (0.2°) along the trough axis. The Bounty Fan is located 800 km further east, where the Bounty Channel debouches onto abyssal oceanic crust at the mouth of the Bounty Trough. The Bounty Fan comprises a basement controlled fan-channel complex with high leveed banks exhibiting fields of mud waves, and a northward-elongated middle fan. Channel-axis gradients diminish from 6 m/km (0.35°) or more on the upper fan to less than 1 m/km (<0.06°) on the lower fan. Parts of the left bank levee and almost the entire middle fan are being eroded and re-entrained within a Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), which passes along the eastern New Zealand margin at depths below 2000 m. The DWBC is the prime source of deep, cold water flow into the Pacific Ocean, with a volume of ca. 20 Sv and velocities up to 4 cm/s or greater. The mouth of the Bounty Channel, at a depth of 4950 m at the south end of the middle fan, acts as a point source for an abyssal sediment drift entrained northward under the DWBC at depths below 4300 m. The Bounty Fan probably originated in the early to middle Neogene, but has mostly been built during the last 3 Myr (Plio-Pleistocene), predominantly as climate-controlled sedimentary couplets of terrigenous, micaceous mud (acoustically reflective; glacial) and biopelagic ooze (acoustically transparent; interglacial), deposited under the pervasive influence of the DWBC.     

Ethnicity as a cause of migration in Eastern Europe

Migration within and from Eastern Europe has recently risen as a topic of significance on the European political agenda. One aspect of this complex migration matrix relates to ethnic unrest. This paper examines the scale and spatial ramifications of this movement on a part of the continent recently freed from communist rule.An attempt is made to divide the ethnic quilt of Eastern Europe into those countries with few such problems and those with many. It is possible then to define areas of active migration (hot spots) from those of potential migration (inflammable spots) based on predictions from the current situation.Active ethnic migration results from the present political/military instability in the western Balkans, where refugees have left for other parts of Europe to escape the present Croat-Serb-Muslim conflict. War escalation could encourage potential ethnic migration from Kosovo, the Sandzak and Vojvodina regions,and Macedonia within the former Yugoslavia. Future disquiet elsewhere could stimulate ethnic groups such as the Turks in Bulgaria,and the Hungarian minorities in Slovakia and Romania to join this migration movement scenario.     

Amino acid composition of organic matter associated with carbonate and non-carbonate sediments

Amino acids comprise from 15 to 36% by weight of humic substances from carbonate and non-carbonate sediments. Humic and fulvic acids extracted from carbonate sediments are characterized by an amino acid composition consisting primarily of the acidic amino acids, aspartic and glutamic acid. Humic substances from non-carbonate sediments have a distinctly different amino acid composition consisting primarily of glycine and alanine. Amino acid analyses of various molecular weight fractions of fulvic acids extracted from carbonates show that lower molecular weight fractions have appreciably higher relative abundances of the acidic amino acids compared to higher molecular weight fractions. Based on typical values for carboxyl group content in humic substances, acidic amino acids may be a significant contributor of these functional groups. Carbonate surfaces appear to selectively adsorb aspartic acid-enriched organic matter while non-carbonates do not have this property.     

Late Cretaceous reactivation of major crustal shear zones in northern Namibia: constraints from apatite fission track analysis

Namibia's passive continental margin records a long history of tectonic activity since the Proterozoic. The orogenic belt produced during the collision of the Congo and Kalahari Cratons in the Early Proterozoic led to a zone of crustal weakness, which became the preferred location for tectonism during the Phanerozoic. The Pan-African Damara mobile belt forms this intraplate boundary in Namibia and its tectonostratigraphic zones are defined by ductile shear zones, where the most prominent is described as the Omaruru Lineament–Waterberg Thrust (OML–WT). The prominance of the continental margin escarpment is diminished in the area of the Central and Northern Zone of the Damara belt where the shear zones are located. This area has been targeted with a set of 66 outcrop samples over a 550-km-long, 60-km-broad coast-parallel transect from the top of the escarpment in the south across the Damara sector to the Kamanjab Inlier in the north. Apatite fission track age and length data from all samples reveal a regionally consistent cooling event. Thermal histories derived by forward modelling bracket this phase of accelerated cooling in the Late Cretaceous. Maximum palaeotemperatures immediately prior to the onset of cooling range from ca. 120 to ca. 60 °C with the maximum occurring directly south of the Omaruru Lineament. Because different palaeotemperatures indicate different burial depth at a given time, the amount of denudation can be estimated and used to constrain vertical displacements of the continental crust. We interpret this cooling pattern as the geomorphic response to reactivation of basement structures caused by a change in spreading geometry in the South Atlantic and South West Indian Oceans.