Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

Assessment of mercury mobility and bioavailability by fractionation method in sediments from coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand

The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g⁻¹ dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them.     

Redbed-type gold mineralisation, Kupferschiefer, south-west Poland

A new type of gold mineralisation containing minor amounts of platinum and palladium has been found proximal to the secondary redox interface located below the Cu-Ag Kupferschiefer orebody of the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in the south-western part of the Lubin-Sieroszowice district, Poland. This deposit can be classified as redbed-type gold. Our study shows that gold, platinum and palladium occur in secondary red-coloured sections of the basal Zechstein sedimentary rocks and in the uppermost Weissliegendes sandstone. Noble metal mineralisation occurs within an average interval of 0.22 m, which lies directly below the copper ores. The average grade of the horizon is 2.25 ppm Au, 0.138 ppm Pt and 0.082 ppm Pd with a metal content of several tens of tonnes of gold. A transition zone has been recognised between the gold-bearing horizon and the copper deposit. This transition zone is characterised by the presence of low grades of copper (<0.2 wt%) and elevated gold contents (>0.5 ppm). Native gold accompanied by electrum, mercury-bearing gold, haematite, covellite, chalcocite, bornite and chalcopyrite has been identified in the gold-bearing horizon. In some sections, Pd-arsenides, tetra-auricupride, Co-arsenides, clausthalite, tennantite, digenite, yarrowite, spionkopite and galena have also been noted.     

The channel between Gran Canaria and Tenerife: constructive processes and destructive events during the evolution of volcanic islands

Seismic, sidescan sonar, bathymetric multibeam and ODP (Ocean Drilling Program) data obtained in the submarine channel between the volcanic islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife allow to identify constructive features and destructive events during the evolution of both islands. The most prominent constructive features are the submarine island flanks being the acoustic basement of the seismic images. The build-up of Tenerife started following the submarine stage of Gran Canaria because the submarine island flank of Tenerife onlaps the steeper flank of Gran Canaria. The overlying sediments in the channel between Gran Canaria and Tenerife are chaotic, consisting of slumps, debris flow deposits, syn-ignimbrite turbidites, ash layers, and other volcaniclastic rocks generated by eruptions, erosion, and flank collapse of the volcanoes. Volcanic cones on the submarine island flanks reflect ongoing submarine volcanic activity. The construction of the islands is interrupted by large destructive events, especially by flank collapses resulting in giant landslides. Several Miocene flank collapses (e.g., the formation of the Horgazales basin) were identified by combining seismic and drilling data whereas young giant landslides (e.g., the Güimar debris avalanche) are documented by sidescan, bathymetric and drilling data. Sediments are also transported through numerous submarine canyons from the islands into the volcaniclastic apron. Seismic profiles across the channel do not show a major offset of reflectors. The existence of a repeatedly postulated major NE-SW-trending fault zone between Gran Canaria and Tenerife is thus in doubt. The sporadic earthquake activity in this area may be related to the regional stress field or the submarine volcanic activity in this area. Seismic reflectors cannot be correlated through the channel between the sedimentary basins north and south of Gran Canaria because the channel acts as sediment barrier. The sedimentary basins to the north and south evolved differently following the submarine growth of Gran Canaria and Tenerife in the Miocene.