Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.     

Provenance of chalk tesserae from Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, UK

Thin section petrographical analysis of chalk tesserae at Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, England, identifies a range of planktonic foraminifera and the calcareous algal cyst Pithonella that identify the Late Cenomanian Rotalipora cushmani Biozone (BGS Foraminiferal Biozones 4iii to 7). The local chalk crop to the north of the villa includes rocks of R. cushmani Biozone age, and indicates a likely local, rather than long distance, source for the tesserae. Microfossils provide a powerful tool for identifying the provenance of artefacts in Roman Britain.     

Hydroxyl stretching in phyllosilicates at high pressures and temperatures: an infrared spectroscopic study

The hydroxyl stretching frequencies of four phyllosilicates have been measured at high pressures and temperatures using an externally heated diamond-anvil cell and synchrotron infrared spectroscopy. Spectra were measured up to 26, 31, 21 and 8 GPa at room temperature for samples of talc, pyrophyllite, muscovite and 10-Å phase, respectively. Spectra were also measured in the range 273–500 K at ambient pressure for all samples and at 8–9 GPa for talc and pyrophyllite. The frequency of the Mg₃OH band in talc increases with pressure due to the absence of hydrogen bonding. The different orientation of the hydroxyl group in pyrophyllite and muscovite leads to hydrogen bonding and a decrease in the frequency of the Al₂OH band with pressure. 10-Å phase is approximately equivalent to talc with the addition of interlayer H₂O. In a spectrum of a sample synthesised for 143 h, two hydroxyl stretching bands are clearly resolved on compression. One is the same as the Mg₃OH band in talc, indicating the presence of intra-layer hydroxyl in a talc-like environment with no hydrogen bonding. The other, which separates from the talc-like band at 1 GPa, is associated with intra-layer hydroxyl that is hydrogen bonded to interlayer H₂O. There are equivalent bands in high-pressure spectra of a sample of deuterated 10-Å phase, synthesised for 400 h. This sample shows a greater extent of hydrogen bonding at ambient pressure than the 143 h sample. For all of the phases studied, increasing temperature leads to a decrease in frequency for every hydroxyl stretching vibration, both at low and high pressures. The shifts in frequency with temperature are an order of magnitude greater than the shifts with pressure when normalised to previously measured structural parameters.     

A 2000‐year lipid biomarker record preserved in a stalagmite from north‐west Scotland

Previous studies on lipid biomarkers preserved in Chinese stalagmites have indicated that ratios of low‐molecular‐weight (LMW) to high‐molecular‐weight (HMW) n‐alkanes, n‐alkan‐2‐ones, n‐alkanols and n‐alkanoic acids can be used as an index of vegetation versus microbial organic matter input to the system and, by extension, a marker of climatic changes, with increases in the proportion of LMW compounds coinciding with colder periods. Here we test whether this hypothesis is equally applicable to a different geographical region (north‐west Scotland), by examining a stalagmite record of the past 200 years, and a wider range of lipid markers. We also test the applicability of other lipid proxies in this context, including the use of n‐alkane ratios, to interpret vegetation changes, and unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios as climatic indicators. The results show that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites, and especially those related to vegetation, are potentially extremely useful in palaeoenvironmental research. Of particular value is the use of C₂₇/C₃₁ n‐alkane ratios as a proxy for vegetation change, clearly indicating variations between herbaceous and arboreal cover. This proxy has now been successfully applied to samples from diverse environments, and can be considered sufficiently robust to be of use in analysing future stalagmite records. It will be of particular value in areas where reliable pollen records are not available, as is often the case with deeper cave deposits. However, the division between LMW and HMW aliphatic compounds is not a clear‐cut case of microbial versus plant activity, with the changes in LMW compounds relating more closely to those in their HMW analogues than in specific bacterial biomarkers. The use of unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios here gives conflicting results, with the observed variation through time depending on the isomer measured. The discrepancies between the findings of this study and previous work are likely to be due to the varying controls on the lipids (original organic matter input, and compound degradation), which in turn will be affected by whether the main climatic limiting factor on the soil is temperature or precipitation. This suggests that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites must be interpreted with care, particularly in the case of bacterial compounds which may be derived from within the cave or from the soil. However, many of these issues can be resolved by the use of multi‐proxy studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity can lead to a sharp dissolution front in chemical dissolution of porous rocks?

The use of the asymptotic limit can greatly simplify the theoretical analysis of chemical dissolution front instabilities in fluid‐saturated rocks and therefore make it possible to obtain mathematical solutions, which often play a crucial role in understanding the propagation behavior of chemical dissolution fronts in chemical dissolution systems. However, there has been a debate in recent years that the asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity (i.e., the acid dissolution capacity number approaching zero) alone cannot lead to a sharp dissolution front of the Stefan type in the acidization dissolution system, in which the dissolvable minerals of carbonate rocks are chemically dissolved by the injected acid flow. The acid dissolution capacity number is commonly defined as the ratio of the volume of the carbonate rock dissolved by an acid to that of the acid. In this paper, we use four different proof methods, including (i) direct use of the fundamental concepts; (ii) use of the mathematical governing equations of an acidization dissolution system; (iii) use of the different time scaling approach; and (iv) use of a moving coordinate system approach, to demonstrate that the asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity can indeed lead to sharp dissolution fronts of the Stefan type in acidization dissolution systems on a much larger time scale (than the dissolution time scale). Our new finding is that on the reaction time scale, the condition of the conventional time derivative of porosity approaching zero alone can ensure that the acidization dissolution front has a sharp shape of the Stefan type. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market access,population density,and socioeconomic development explain diversity and functional group biomass of coral reef fish assemblages

There is overwhelming evidence that many local-scale human activities (e.g. fishing) have a deleterious effect on coral reef fish assemblages. Our understanding of how broad social phenomena (e.g. socioeconomic development) affect the diversity and function of coral reef fish assemblages however, is still poor. Here, we use structural equation models to reveal how human population density, socioeconomic development, and market access affect fishing pressure and coral cover to, in turn, explain the diversity and biomass of key functional groups of reef fish assemblages within Solomon Islands. Fishing pressure is predominantly driven by both market access and local population density, and has a clear negative effect on the diversity and function of coral reef fishes. The strong positive effect of market access on fishing pressure makes clear the importance of understanding social-ecological linkages in the context of increasingly connected societies. This study highlights the need to address broad social phenomena rather than focusing on proximate threats such as fishing pressure, to ensure the continued flow of coral reef goods and services in this time of rapid global social and environmental change.     

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).     

Geodynamic modelling of the Century deposit,Mt Isa Province,Queensland

This paper is concerned with an example of quantitative modelling of orebody formation as a guide to reducing the risk for future mineral exploration. Specifically, the paper presents a detailed 3–D numerical model for the formation of the Century zinc deposit in northern Queensland. The model couples fluid flow with deformation, thermal transport and chemical reactions. The emphasis of the study is a systems approach where the holistic mineralising system is considered rather than concentrating solely on the mineral deposit. In so doing the complete plumbing system for mineralisation is considered with a view to specifying the critical conditions responsible for the ore deposit occurring where it does and having the size and metal grades that are observed. The numerical model is based on detailed geological, tectonic, isotopic and mineralogical data collected over the past 20 years. The conclusions are that the Century zinc deposit is located where it is because of the following factors: (i) a thermal anomaly is associated with the Termite Range Fault due to advection of heat from depth by fluid flow up the Termite Range Fault; (ii) bedding‐plane fissility in the shale rocks hosting the Century zinc deposit has controlled the wavelength and nature of D₁ folding in the vicinity of the deposit and has also controlled increases in permeability due to hydrofracture of the shales; such hydrofracture is also associated with the production of hydrocarbons as these shales passed through the ‘oil‐window’; (iii) Pb–Zn leached from crustal rocks in the stratigraphic column migrated up along faults normal to the Termite Range Fault driven by topographic relief associated with inversion at the end of the Isan Orogeny; these fluids mixed with H₂S derived at depth moving up the Termite Range Fault to mix with the crustal fluids to precipitate Pb–Zn in a plume downstream from the point of mixing. Critical factors to be used as exploration guides are high temperatures, carbonaceous fissile shales now folded into relatively tight D₁ folds, fault‐controlled plumbing systems that enable fluid mixing, depletion of metals upstream of the deposit and,in particular,a very wide Fe‐depletion halo upstream of the deposit.     

Theoretical analyses of acidization dissolution front instability in fluid‐saturated carbonate rocks

This paper presents an instability theory that can be used to understand the fundamental behavior of an acidization dissolution front when it propagates in fluid‐saturated carbonate rocks. The proposed theory includes two fundamental concepts, namely the intrinsic time and length of an acidization dissolution system, and a theoretical criterion that involves the comparison of the Zhao number and its critical value of the acidization dissolution system. The intrinsic time is used to determine the time scale at which the acidization dissolution front is formed, while the intrinsic length is used to determine the length scale at which the instability of the acidization dissolution front can be initiated. Under the assumption that the acidization dissolution reaction is a fast process, the critical Zhao number, which is used to assess the instability likelihood of an acidization dissolution front propagating in fluid‐saturated carbonate rocks, has been derived in a strictly mathematical manner. Based on the proposed instability theory of a propagating acidization dissolution front, it has been theoretically recognized that: (i) the increase of the mineral dissolution ratio can stabilize the acidization dissolution front in fluid‐saturated carbonate rocks; (ii) the increase of the final porosity of the carbonate rock can destabilize the acidization dissolution front, while the increase of the initial porosity can stabilize the acidization dissolution front in fluid‐saturated carbonate rocks; (iii) the increase of the mineral dissolution ratio can cause an increase in the dimensionless propagation speed of the acidization dissolution front; (iv) the increase of the initial porosity can enable the acidization dissolution front to propagate faster, while the increase of the final porosity can enable the acidization dissolution front to propagate slower in the acidization dissolution system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Voltammetric estimation of iron(III) thermodynamic stability constants for catecholate siderophores isolated from marine bacteria and cyanobacteria

Thermodynamic stability constants have been estimated for the complexation of iron(III) with catecholate-type siderophores isolated from the marine bacterium Alteromonas luteoviolacea and from the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. Stability constants were determined utilizing the “chelate scale” of Taylor et al. (1994). The scale is based upon a linear relationship between the reduction potentials and the pH-independent thermodynamic stability constants for known iron(III) complexes. Log K values for the alterobactin B ferric iron complex are 43.6 ± 1.5 at pH 8.2 and 37.6 ± 1.2 at pH 6, consistent with a shift from bis-catecholate to monosalicylate/monocatecholate iron coordination with decreasing pH. Synechococcus isolates PCC 7002 Nos. 1 and 3 formed iron(III) complexes with stability constants of approximately 38.1 ± 1.2 and 42.3 ± 1.5, respectively. The binding strengths of the iron(III) complexes examined in this study are quite high, suggesting that catecholate siderophores may play a role in the solubilization and biological uptake of iron in the marine environment.