Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

BDS卫星钟差半参数平差模型异常数据探测与处理

针对北斗卫星钟差数据中出现钟跳、粗差等异常数据频次较高的问题,将半参数平差模型引入BDS的钟差数据的处理过程中。首先,在考虑系统误差的同时,改进了常用的钟差模型;其次,综合考虑异常数据和系统误差,利用补偿最小二乘原理和极值求解方法,详细推导了分离异常数据前后参数和非参数估计值与相应观测值改正数的关系表达式,实现了异常数据的定值、参数求解和系统误差分离。在此基础上,引入Cook距离,给出了利用参数分量和非参数分量的Cook距离及混合Cook距离,去判断异常值的位置,并给出了一些参数的选取方法及相应的处理措施,实现了卫星钟差异常数据的定位和定值以及部分系统误差的分离。最后,采用武汉大学GNSS中心提供的采样间隔为5 min的北斗卫星精密钟差数据,将本文方法与常用方法进行了试验对比。试验结果表明,本文方法能够有效地识别并处理卫星钟差数据中的异常值,有效克服了基于经验阈值钟差异常数据探测方法的不足,且该方法对于量级较小的异常钟差数据也有很好的探测效果,一定程度丰富了现有的BDS钟差数据质量控制方法。     

东北三省全面振兴的社会经济支撑能力评估

在解析支撑能力和东北问题特点的基础上，从“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”五大理念出发建立全面振兴社会经济支撑能力评价指标体系和综合评价方法，以地级市为单元对东北三省进行评估。研究发现：各地市社会经济支撑能力差异显著，哈大沿线核心城市的支撑能力较强，西翼城市以及朝阳、七台河、绥化、葫芦岛、铁岭、双鸭山和鹤岗等资源型城市支撑能力较弱。因此未来东北地区在振兴政策的区域分布上应有所侧重，对不同地区施以不同的振兴或扶持政策。在创新、绿色、开放方面需要集中力量重点突破，而在体制机制改革和共享服务建设方面需要全面覆盖，并重点加强黑龙江北部和辽宁、吉林西翼城市的共享能力建设。     

基于SPEI的渭河流域干旱时空变化特征分析

以标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）作为评估指标，基于渭河流域28个气象站点1961—2017年实测降水量和气温数据，采用Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势检验、经验正交函数以及小波变换等方法分析渭河流域干旱时空变化特征，并研究渭河流域干旱与6种大尺度气候因子之间的相关关系，进一步探讨主要气候因子对流域干旱时空分布特征的潜在影响。研究表明：渭河流域在1961—2017年间整体呈现出变旱的趋势。通过经验正交函数分解，渭河流域干旱分布场主要有3种典型模态类型，分别为全局型、西北—东南反向分布型以及东—西反向分布型；同时，大尺度气候因子南方涛动指数SOI与流域干旱分布场具有更好的相关关系，对该区域内干旱变化有较强的影响。     

大西安地区土地利用类型时空演变分析

通过多种方法分析大西安地区土地利用类型演变特征、空间变化特征及其影响因素，旨在为大西安地区土地利用优化发展提供科学基础。在GIS和RS技术的支持下，对区域1996年、2006年、2016年3期LANDSAT TM（OLI）遥感影像进行解译，采用土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用变化模型对大西安1996 年以来土地利用类型和土地覆被时空动态变化进行量化分析，结果表明：（1） 大西安近20 a来建设用地面积不断增加，耕地、林业用地面积总体减少，草地小幅增加，水域略有萎缩，各地类间相互转换频繁。（2） 土地利用综合程度较高且不断加强，土地利用结构趋于均衡。（3） 空间变化上，土地利用变化区域差异显著，建设用地、耕地、林业用地重心转移的速度呈现出先快后慢的阶段性特征。（4） 综合相关文献，大西安地区土地利用变化的驱动因素主要为政策因素。论文从时空变化角度首次提出大西安地区的土地利用演变规律，该结果可为大西安地区发展过程中的土地优化提供科学基础。     

关中平原城市群植被覆盖的时空特征与影响因素

植被是全球及区域生态系统环境变化的重要指标,也是对人类社会活动有重要贡献的资源之一。为了研究关中平原城市群不同区域植被覆盖变化对自然和人文因子的响应,以划分为三个区域的植被作为研究对象,选取2000—2017年MODIS-NDVI遥感数据,运用趋势分析、探索性空间数据分析与地理探测器等方法,从时序演进与空间分布方面研究了18 a内植被覆盖的演化及分布特征,定量分析影响植被覆盖的主导因子。遥感数据要通过投影转换、拼接、最大值合成等方法进行处理,再运用Python程序进行影像批量裁剪,将遥感数据和气象数据进行分区统计,最后对该处理数据进行讨论研究。结论表明：（1） 研究期内关中平原城市群植被覆盖呈显著上升趋势,NDVI平均值增速为0.077·（10 a）^–1,阶段性变化特征明显,其中2005—2007阶段和2011—2013阶段极显著增加,最大上升速率达到了0.05·a^–1。（2） 空间上总体呈现“南高北低”的分布特征,研究区总体得到改善;高值区主要分布在南部秦岭北坡,受气候因子的影响更大,植被覆盖增加速度缓慢,达到轻度改善水平;低值区聚集在黄土高原边缘地区,植被增加趋势明显;中部关中平原极少部分地区植被覆盖出现了轻度退化或严重退化,以西安市及临近城市最为典型。（3） 热点区主要分布在秦岭山区及关中平原中部地区,冷点区则集中于黄土高原边缘地区,植被覆盖总体以增长为主。热点区格网数量持续增多,2013年达到最大为45.07%;冷点区域数量不断减少,2017年减少到9.82%;次热点区与次冷点区主要分布在中部平原地带及北部地区,由连片分布转化为零散分布,且总量不断减少。（4） 自然因素对植被覆盖的影响最为突出,其中气温和降水为影响植被覆盖的主导因子,决定力q值分别为0.955和0.931,且气温的影响大于降水的影响;人文因子影响力较为显著,GDP因子决定力q值达到0.387。研究可为当地改善植被覆盖环境提供理论依据。     

游客-环境互动视角下旅游者目的地环境恢复性效应

日常生活环境和旅游目的地环境都可以为个体提供恢复的机会，不同环境的属性特征导致不同程度的恢复。为了探究环境类型与恢复性效应之间的关系及停留时间的调节作用，文章采用问卷调查方式，利用配对样本t检验和混合设计方差分析相结合的方法，探讨游客在不同环境中的恢复性效应，并对这一现象提供心理上的解释。结果表明：1）恢复体验的4个维度（放松体验、心理脱离、掌握体验、控制体验）在旅游目的地环境中的得分均高于日常生活环境。2）掌握和控制体验维度在城市旅游目的地中的变化程度高于乡村旅游目的地，两种类型目的地的放松和心理脱离维度差异较小。3）随着在目的地停留时间的延长，乡村旅游目的地放松体验和心理脱离维度变化程度高于城市旅游目的地，两种类型目的地环境恢复性效应会相互靠近。因此，游客的环境恢复性效应不仅受到环境和目的地类型的影响，同时还与游客的适应程度有关，且受到其停留时间的调节作用。     

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility:A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.     

Influence of Stress on Void Ratios of Compacted Crushed Rock Masses in Coal Mine Gobs

The transfer and evolution of stress among rock blocks directly change the void ratios of crushed rock masses and affect the flow of methane in coal mine gobs. In this study, a Lagrange framework and a discrete element method, along with the soft-sphere model and EDEM numerical software, were used. The compaction processes of rock blocks with diameters of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 m were simulated with the degrees of compression set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. This study examines the influence of stress on void ratios of compacted crushed rock masses in coal mine gobs. The results showed that stress was mainly transmitted downward through strong force chains. As the degree of compression increased, the strong force chains extended downward, which resulted in the stress at the upper rock mass to become significantly higher than that at the lower rock mass. It was determined that under different degrees of compression, the rock mass of coal mine gobs could be divided, from the bottom to the top, into a lower insufficient compression zone (ICZ) and an upper sufficient compression zone (SCZ). From bottom to top, the void ratios in the ICZ sharply decreased and those in the SCZ slowly decreased. Void ratios in the ICZ were 1.2–1.7 times higher than those in the SCZ.

     

Characteristics of Permeability Changes in Bituminous Coal Under Conditions of Stress Variation Due to Repeated Mining Activities

The factors affecting permeability change under repeated mining of coal seams are important study aspects that need to be explored. This study combined various stress variation characteristics of protective seam mining and simplified the stress path of repeated mining in protective seam mines. Based on the results from the bespoke gas flow and displacement testing apparatus, seepage tests for simulated repetitive mining were carried out. The results simulated the actual behavior very well. With any drastic increase in the mining influence, the axial deviation stress in the stress path increased, and the greater the difference in coal permeability during the unloading and stress recovery stage, the more substantial the increase in permeability. The change in coal permeability was significantly influenced by the severity of simulated repeated mining cycles. When the mining stress exceeded a critical value, the permeability of the coal sample increased with the increase in the number of loading and unloading cycles, but the reverse was true when the mining stress was lower than the critical value. The effective sensitivity of seepage to the applied stress decreased with an increase in the number of stress cycles. With a decrease in the deviation stress, that is, with lower severity of mining influence, the effective sensitivity of coal seepage to stress gradually decreased.