Characteristics of Makeng Iron Deposit in Southwestern Fujian Province,Implications for the Skarn Deposit of Magmatic Origin

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Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.     

Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of Late Ediacaran Rare-metalAlbite Granites of the Arabian-Nubian Shield

The Abu Dabbab albite granite(ADAG), in the central Eastern Desert of Egypt, hosts the most significant rare metal ore deposit in the northern part of the Neoproterozoic Arabian-Nubian Shield. Here, we report detailed field,petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical investigation of the ADAG, an isolated stock-like granitic body with sharp intrusive contacts against metamorphic country rocks, probably emplaced at about 600 Ma. The fine-grained porphyritic upper unit is a preserved remnant of the shallowly-emplaced apex of the magma chamber, whereas the medium-grained lower unit crystallized at deeper levels under subvolcanic conditions. The peraluminous leucocratic ADAG shares common geochemical characteristics with post-collisional intraplate A-type magmas. In addition to the conspicuous enrichment in Na2 O, the ADAG is remarkable for its anomalous concentrations of Ta, Nb, Li, Hf, Ga, Sn, Zn and heavy rare-earth elements. Nb-Ta minerals in the ADAG are mixed with Fe-Mn oxides, forming black patches that increase in abundance toward of the base of the intrusion. Columbite-tantalite, cassiterite and wolframite are the most important ore minerals.Pronounced negative Eu anomalies(Eu/Eu* = 0.10–0.24) reflect extreme magmatic fractionation and perhaps the effects of late fluid-rock interaction. The ADAG was most likely generated by partial melting of the juvenile middle crust of the ANS as the geotherm was elevated by erosional uplift following lithospheric delamination and it was emplaced at the intersection of lineations of structural weakness. Although formation of the ADAG and its primary enrichment in rare metals are essentially due to magmatic processes, late-stage metasomatism caused limited redistribution of rare metals. Fluid-driven subsolidus modification was limited to the apex of the magma chamber and drove development of greisen, amazonite, and quartz veins along fracture systems.     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

Timing of Proterozoic magmatism in the Sunsas belt,Bolivian Precambrian Shield,SW Amazonian Craton

We present new U-Pb zircon and monazite ages from the Sunsas belt granitic magmatism in Bolivia,SW Amazonian Craton.The geochronological results revealed four major magmatic events recorded along the Sunsas belt domains.The older igneous event formed a granitic basement coeval to the Rio Apa Terrane(1.95-1.85 Ga)in the southern domain.The second magmatic episode is represented by 1.68 Ga granites associated to the Paraguá Terrane(1.69-1.66 Ga)in the northern domain.The 1.37-1.34 Ga granites related to San Ignacio orogeny represent the third and more pervasive magmatic event,recorded throughout the Sunsas belt.Moreover,magmatic ages of～1.42 Ga revealed that the granitogenesis asso-ciated to the Santa Helena orogeny also affected the Sunsas belt,indicating that it was not restricted to the Jauru Terrane.Lastly,the 1.10-1.04 Ga youngest magmatism was developed during the Sunsas oro-geny and represents the final magmatic evolution related to Rodinia assembly.Likewise,the 1.95-1.85 and 1.68 Ga inherited zircon cores obtained in the～1.3 Ga and 1.0 Ga granite samples suggest strong par-tial melting of the Paleoproterozoic sources.The 1079±14 Ma and 1018±6 Ma monazite crystallization ages can be correlated to the collisional tectono-thermal event of the Sunsas orogeny,associated to reac-tions of medium-to high-grade metamorphism.Thus,the Sunsas belt was built by heterogeneous 1.95-1.85 Ga and 1.68 Ga crustal fragments that were reworked at 1.37-1.34 Ga and 1.10-1.04 Ga related to orogenic collages.Furthermore,the 1.01 Ga monazite age suggests that granites previously dated by zir-con can bear evidence of a younger thermal history.Therefore,the geochronological evolution of the Sunsas belt may have been more complex than previously thought.     

哥伦比亚马钦火山热液系统:2011～2013年期间观测到的新岩浆信号

近年来(2009～2013年)哥伦比亚马钦火山出现了新的地震活动。为了改善火山监测系统,本文通过分析该地区火山喷气孔和温泉的化学成分及同位素组成,研究了火山排放的流体地球化学特征。由于火山喷气孔中下部液相分离,导致穹丘中上部的喷气孔亏损δD和δ~(18)O(与大气降雨补给的流体相比)。在2011～2013年期间,发现喷气孔有很明显的岩浆成因He,同时排放的液体中岩浆的贡献量也有所增加,证实了地震活动性的增强。地球化学和地震资料都显示马钦火山已经苏醒,说明该火山仍然处于活跃期,值得我们对其活动性进行重点监测。     

地震预测评估方法(一)

地震预测是地球科学有待解决的最重要问题之一。过去的10年间,地震预测研究重新得到重视,目前地震可预测性的试验在全球范围内开展。就这些试验而论,与预测评估有关的一些极其重要的问题有:详细的试验说明书、使用成功的量度,以及恰当的参考模型的选取。本文我们对这些问题逐一进行论述,并重点讨论前瞻性地震预测的检验。我们考察一般类型的地震预报,其预报格式可用二元表示。也就是说,对于任意给定的时空间隔,我们可推断给定震级尺度的地震是否发生。这种设定允许我们进行确定性预报和概率性预报的检验,并比较二者的结果。此外,这种检验因为实质上是许多"是"或"否"的累加,所以容易被人们所理解。作为二元性能的量度及其广泛可用性的介绍,我们考察了前兆逆向追踪法,即一种近来旨在预报破坏性地震的地震预测算法。我们介绍并分析了几种测量预测性能的方法,但是前兆逆向追踪试验结果可能还不稳定,因为到目前为止所发生的地震数量少。针对3项10年尺度地震活动性预报,即相对强度、图像信息和美国国家地震灾害区划图的试验,我们介绍由Molchan图得到的成功量度的"校验区技能分数"方法。利用这种试验并应用统计假设检验的方法,我们说明了选取适宜的参考模型的重要性,并表明增加模型的复杂性未必在预测效能上获得显著改善。在说明了将校验区技能分数用作效能的量值之后,我们较为详细地讨论其统计学性质以及相关的计算程序。根据这项工作以及以前的试验成果,我们用校验区技能分数探索区域地震活动性的演化并优化了简单预报模型。