Comparison of the Variations of CMEs and ICMEs with those of other Solar and Interplanetary Parameters During Solar Cycle 23

This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23 and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in 1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000 was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45^∘–90^∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0^∘–45^∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001 for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough) larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot activity.     

Periodicities in sea-level changes at Stockholm

The annual mean sea-level time series for Stockholm (Sweden) for 1825–1984 (160 data points) had a large long-term negative (almost linear, only slightly quadratic) trend. After correcting for the same, the detrended series was subjected to maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA). Choosing selected periodicities for further multiple regression analysis, series for the first 80 yr (1825–1904) showed periodicities at T = 2.40, 5.0, 6.1, 13.5, 14.8 and 32 yr, significant at a 2 level. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (2.5–3.0) ± 0.8 cm. The latter 80 yr (1905–1984) showed significant periodicities at T= 2.05, 2.7, 3.0, 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 6.3, 7.7, 9.8, 20.5 and 33 yr. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (2.0–2.5) ± 0.7 cm. The whole period of 160 yr (1825–1984) showed significant periodicities at T = 2.05, 2.9, 3.2, 4.5, 4.9, 5.6, 6.4, 7.8, 11.0, 13.7, 14.8, 29 and 43 yr. The three largest peaks (italicized) had amplitudes of approximately (1.6–1.9) ± 0.6 cm. All these significant peaks explained a variance of only about 30% or less, indicating a large random component of approximately 70%. Peaks at T = 11 yr (sunspot cycle) or T = 18.6 yr (lunar nodal term) were either absent or very weak. Most of the other peaks were transient (present in the first 80 yr or the latter 80 yr) except an uncertain quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) (T = 2–3 yr) and T = 5–6 yr and T 30 yr, which seemed to be persistent throughout the whole period. Some periodicities seem to resemble those seen in the Southern Oscillation (SO) index.     

Periodicities in the time series of annual minimum temperatures for the United States Gulf Coast region

The minimum winter temperature series for the United States Gulf Coast for 1799–1988 (190 values) was subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Significant periodicities in the QBO region (T-2–3 years) and atT=3.7, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 12.9, 15.5 and 22 years were detected. Some of these were present in the first half only (1799–1893) while others in the latter half only (1894–1988), indicating a transient nature. Also, more than 50% of the variance was random. Many of the significant periodicities are seen in other geophysical parameters. Some may be harmonics of the 11-year sunspot cycle and the 22-year Hale magnetic sunspot cycle.     

Fitness-for-Purpose of Reference Material Reference Values in Relation to Traceability of Measurement, as Illustrated by USGS BCR-1, NIST SRM 610 and IAEA NBS28

As in all fields of sample analysis, reference materials play a large role in supporting measurements in the geosciences. While a rather large number of materials are in distribution (> 380), not all are equally effective or fit-for-purpose in supporting laboratory data quality and thereby assuring the desired comparability of measurements between laboratories. Equally important, reference values that are not fit-for-purpose cannot be used effectively to establish traceability links between laboratory measurements and national and international standards. The needed fitness-for-purpose is not achieved for reference values either when more than one reference value has been proposed and a consensus does not exist among users as to which should be used by all, or when reference value uncertainties are too large in comparison to those of routine laboratory measurements. The focus of this review will be, first to outline the current reality, and second to suggest ways in which certifications of RMs can be improved to provide reference values that are universally accepted and more fit-for-purpose in general laboratory use. The discussion will be illustrated largely by current uses of USGS BCR-1, NIST SRM 610 and IAEA NBS28, as these three materials are those for which the largest body of newly published data exists, according to recent bibliographies of the geoanalytical literature published annually in Geostandards Newsletter: The Journal of Geostandards and Geoanalysis.     

Spectral characteristics of the series of annual rainfall in England and Wales

Despite the small size of England and Wales, the rainfall there shows large variations, possibly due to geographical and topographical conditions. Spectral analysis shows a large number of periodicities, but many are statistically insignificant, indicating considerable randomness. Significant periodicities are invariably in the low periodicity region (periodicity < 5 yr). Occasionally, high periodicities are also encountered, but are always accompanied by low periodicities. Hence, meaningful predictions are not possible.     

Variability of theS q focus position in the South American continent

The daily variation of the H component at Pilar (31.7°S, 63–9°W) and Trelew (43.3°S, 65.3°W) in the South American continent indicates a great variability in amplitude from season to season and even from day to day. However, Pilar always remains equatorward of the southern S_q, focus. On the other hand, Trelew is in most cases slightly poleward of the S_q, focus; but the focus has large latitudinal excursions above and near Trelew. A cause of this variability could be the encroachment of polar ionospheric current systems into the low latitude ionospheric S_q, current system.     

Are droughts predictable?

From a study of rainfall series at several locations, it is shown that approximate but meaningful predictions of drought-prone intervals are possible only for regions where the rainfall series have prominent periodicities (of large amplitudes) in the long periodicity region (about 10 yr or more), provided the patterns do not change abruptly and drastically. Also, rainfall for individual years cannot be predicted accurately.