NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS BY NESTING HYDROLOGY MODEL DHSVM WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RegCM2/CHINA

Based on improvement of a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM for short)and its application to North China,a nested regional climatic-hydrologic model system is developedby connecting DHSVM with RegCM2/China.The simulated climate scenarios,including controland 2×CO_2 outputs,are downscaled to 8 stations in Luanhe River and Sanggan River Basins todrive the hydrology model.According to simulation results,under double CO_2 scenarios,annualmean temperature and evapotranspiration will increase 2.8C and 29 mm,respectively;precipitation also increase but with different value for each basin,6 mm for Luanhe River Basinwhile 46 mm for Sanggan River Basin;runoff change for the two basins is different too,27 mmdecrease for Luanhe River Basin while 26 mm increase for Sanggan River Basin.As a result,therunoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin will be 74 mm and 71 mm,respectively,which is approximately a quarter of annual mean runoff(284 mm)of the wholecountry.Total streamflow for the two basins will decrease about 2.5×10~8m~3.All these indicatethat the warm and dry trend will continue in the two river basins under double CO_2 scenarios.Thenested model system,with both climatic and hydrologic prediction ability,could also be applied toother basins in China by parameter adjustment.     

Environmental estrogens: dose–response relationships for vitellogenin formation and reproductive toxicity in male rainbow trout

The appearance of the egg-yolk protein vitellogenin (Vg) in plasma of male fish is a sensitive indicator of exposure to estrogenic compounds. We have been studying the kinetics of Vg formation and excretion in rainbow trout with a goal towards developing an integrated pharmacokinetic–pharmcodynamic (PK–PD) model to quantitatively relate cumulative estrogenic exposure of fish to the expression and appearance of Vg in plasma. We administered graded doses of ethynylestradiol (EE2), o,p-DDT, DDD and DDE and octylphenol to male rainbow trout via a dorsal aortic cannula which allowed repetitive blood sampling from individual fish for up to 48 days after injection. The plasma concentrations of the xenobiotics and Vg were simultaneously quantified using ELISA and GC–MS or GC–ECD. In separate experiments, sexually mature trout were exposed to graded water concentrations of EE2 for 3 months and various parameters indicative of the functional status of the male reproductive system determined. These parameters included tissue-somatic indices, histopathological evaluation, spermatocrit, sperm motility (quantified using computer-assisted-motion analysis) and viability of semen based on fertilization assays using eggs harvested from untreated trout. Results from fertilization assays indicated that 12 week exposure to EE2 concentrations of 10 and 100 ng/l caused a 50% reduction in the fertilization rate of semen harvested from exposed trout. PK–PD modeling strategies proved valuable tools for linking chemical exposures to Vg formation.