氧同位素分析在东濮凹陷下第三纪沉积环境中的应用

主要介绍了氧同位素的地球化学特征，并利用这些特征在沉积环境方面的指示意义，分析了东濮凹陷下第三系盐湖沉积的氧同位素。分析结果表明：尽管保存在碳酸盐中的氧同位素的值不能定量地反映原始氧同位素的值，不能够作为区分海陆相的标志，但它可以定性地探讨碳酸盐沉积时的沉积环境。通过对东濮凹陷下第三系盐湖沉积的氧同位素分析发现，从沙四上到沙一时期，除了沙三上的δ^18O有些突变外，基本上呈递增趋势。这反映出，从沙四上到沙一时期该区的气候逐渐向干早过渡；沙四上到沙三上一段δ＾18Ｏ明显比沙一和沙二上伯低，说明在沙四上到沙三上时期，该沉积区的蒸发作用还不是很显著，而另一方面也说明在由沙三上向沙二上过渡时，该区可能存在一次气候突变，使得沙二上和沙一时期的蒸发量远大于降雨量，δ^18O的值也因此迅速增大。同时，也做了碳酸盐同位素系数Z值的研究，其揭示的沉积环境特征与氧同位素基本相同。     

中国陆地净初级生产力的季节变化研究

了解不同季节陆地净初级生产力(NPP)的变化及与气候的相互关系以及在不同地类的差异对深刻理解我国陆地生态系统对全球气候变化的响应和陆地碳循环研究具有重要意义。本文使用1981～2000年间GLO-PEM模型模拟的我国陆地NPP数据和同期气温、降水以及土地利用数据, 研究不同季节我国陆地植被NPP的变化。结果表明,在1981～2000年期间,四个季节的NPP都呈显著增加趋势,春季是NPP增加速率最快的季节,夏季是NPP增加量最大的季节。耕地在春、夏和秋季NPP增长和增长率最高,林地冬季NPP增长最多而水域冬季NPP增长率最高。夏季NPP增长最高的区域分布于我国东部的多数地区、内蒙古东部、四川盆地、贵州东部、藏南和新疆西部;夏季NPP降低最多的区域分布于在呼伦贝尔高原、鄂尔多斯高原、黄土高原、青藏高原东部和新疆西北部。     

边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验

使用NCEP再分析资料对国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式BCC_CM1.0的多年平均场进行订正,然后嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3,建立基于边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式系统。使用该系统进行28年夏季回报及2013年夏季业务预测,并与直接使用BCC_CM1.0模式与RegCM3模式嵌套的模式系统进行对比。结果表明,引入边界强迫场订正技术后,区域气候模式系统对多年平均夏季气温、降水回报能力有了显著提高,且回报的高温界限值分布更接近于观测。除对2013年夏季东北地区气温距平预测效果变差外模式系统对于2013年中国东部中部地区夏季气温距平异常偏高、夏季高温日数异常偏多等观测事实的预测性能有显著提高。区域气候模式系统回报的多年平均夏季西太平洋副热带高压与观测更为接近是其对2013年夏季极端高温事件预测能力提高的关键所在。     

上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究

基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。     

1961-2005年华东地区高温气候特征

Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days (HTDs) and the mean daily maximum temperature (MDMT) during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied. The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃ in the past 45 years. Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time, oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years. The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part, but less in the northern part of East China. The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China. The high temperature process (HTP) was more in the southwestern part, but less in northeastern part of East China. Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July, and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July. In the first 5 years of the 21st century, the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations, both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October, the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.     

中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应(英文)

Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...     

一种基于实景图像的低能见度识别算法

为了利用大量视频监控设备提高能见度数据采集密度,提出一种基于实景图像转换的、采用简单卷积神经网络分类提取能见度等级的算法。该算法假设视频设备水平安装且具备开阔视野, 对原始视频图像进行水平分块,提取各分块的梯度、饱和度和亮度信息组成新的图像,基于简单卷积神经网络建模。采用2019年9月—2020年12月上海洋山港气象站29668张视频图像进行训练,建立识别模型,并采用2021年1—5月5757张视频图像对模型进行测试。采用该算法建立的模型参考雾的预报等级(GB/T 27964—2011)将能见度分为5个等级进行检验,白天准确率为87.99%,夜间准确率为81.32%,优于直接采用AlexNet模型。对1000 m以下低能见度天气的识别准确率达95%以上。利用现有的视频摄像头,可有效弥补气象站点能见度仪数据不足的问题,在气象业务上有一定的应用价值。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

华东地区极端降水动力降尺度模拟及未来预估

利用CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）数据集中的全球模式IPSL-CM5A-LR及其嵌套的区域气候模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）,分别评估了模式对1981~2000中国华东区域极端降水指标的模拟能力,并讨论了RCP8.5排放情景下21世纪中期（2041~2060年）中国华东极端降水指标的变化特征。相比驱动场全球气候模式,WRF模式更好地再现了各个极端指数空间分布及各子区域降水年周期变化。在模拟区域气候特点方面,WRF模拟结果有所改进,并在弥补全球模式对小雨日过多模拟的缺陷起到了明显的作用。21世纪中期,华东区域的降水将呈现明显的极端化趋势。WRF模拟结果显示年总降雨量、年大雨日数、平均日降雨强度在华东大部分区域的增幅在20%以上;年极端降雨天数、连续5 d最大降水量的增幅在华东北部部分区域分别超过了50%和35%,同时最长续干旱日在华东区域全面增加;且变化显著的格点主要位于增加幅度较大的区域。未来华东区域会出现强降水事件和干旱事件同时增加的情况,降水呈现明显的极端化趋势,且华东北部极端化强于华东南部。     

副热带极端事件查询与环流检索一体化平台及其应用

基于实时基本气象要素、大气环流客观分析场及历史相关资料,结合副热带地区重要天气气候事件指标和异常相似型的客观划定,设计了具有查询和检索2个模块的副热带极端事件查询与环流检索一体化平台。平台基于ASP.NET技术,使用C#语言开发而成,实现了重要天气气候事件及异常查询、气象要素监测绘图、近期环流检索和自定义环流检索等功能。平台通过采用Browser/Server系统结构,进一步提高了查询的便捷性。文中给出了业务应用的实例,检验了系统的实用性,实践表明该平台可以作为副热带地区长—中—短一体化预报业务的重要支撑。