Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Century-Scale Change in Water Availability: CO2-Quadrupling Experiment

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ～ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.     

A summary of sulfur dioxide emission rate measuremnts from Guatemalan volcanoes

Measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rate from three Guatemalan volcanoes provide data which are consistent with theoretical and laboratory studies of eruptive and shallow magma chamber processes. In particular, unerupted magma makes a major contribution to the measured SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito, a continuously erupting dacitic volcanic dome. Varying shallow magma convection rates can explain the variations in SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito. At Fuego, a basaltic volcano currently in repose, SO₂ emission rate measurements are consistent with a high level magma body that is crystallizing and releasing volatiles. At Pacaya, a continuously erupting basaltic volcano, recent SO₂ emission rate measurements support laboratory simulation studies of strombolian eruptions; these studies indicate that the majority of gas escapes during eruptions and little gas escapes between eruptions.Average SO₂ emission rates over the last 20 years for Santiaguito, Fuego and Pacaya are 80, 160 and 260 Mg/d, respectively. On a global scale, these three volcanoes account for 1% of the annual global volcanic output of SO₂. Santiaguito and Pacaya, together, emit 6% of the total annual SO₂ emitted by continuously erupting volcanoes.Even though SO₂ measurements at these volcanoes have been made infrequently and by different investigators, the collective data help to establish a useful baseline by which to judge future changes. A more complete record of SO₂ emission rates from these volcanoes could lead to a better understanding of their eruption mechanisms and reduce the impact of their future eruptions on Guatemalan society.     

Evidence for discrete subpopulations of sea perch (Helicolenus ercoides) across four fjords in Fiordland,New Zealand

In coastal populations of invertebrates and fishes, the distribution of discrete subpopulations is influenced by adult and larval dispersal, as well as by the effects of habitat heterogeneity on site fidelity or connectivity. Here, we examine evidence for spatial structure of sea perch, Helicolenus percoides, populations among four fjords in the Fiordland region of southwestern New Zealand. We examine patterns in adult morphology, length-at-age, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of muscle tissue, and trace elemental composition of whole otoliths as proxies for population isolation among the four inner fjord regions. A multivariate analysis of morphometrics reveals significant differences among populations from each of the four sites, suggesting existence of four distinct subpopulations. These patterns are consistent with observed differences in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, and length-at-age estimates among the four subpopulations. Differences in whole otolith concentrations of Sr, Ba, Mg and Li, and high classification scores based on the whole otolith elemental fingerprint are also consistent with significant subdivision among areas. Patterns across all four markers are consistent with discrete subpopulation structure of adult sea perch among the four study sites. These data indicate that the newly implemented network of marine protected areas in Fiordland is likely to contain discrete populations of sea perch.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity.     

Colonisation of South African kelp-bed canopies by the alien mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis: extent and implications of a novel bioinvasion

The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis is the most significant invasive alien marine species in South Africa and, although not normally found subtidally, has recently been observed colonising heads and stipes of the kelp species Ecklonia maxima in False Bay. We quantified this invasion and explored its ecological implications. Transects laid across kelp beds revealed that 10.34% of kelp individuals surveyed bore canopy mussels, with kelp heads (10.07%) being far more commonly infected than stipes (0.27%). Twenty kelp individuals with infected heads and 20 with infected stipes were separately collected for more-detailed examination. Wet mass of mussels on these kelp heads ranged from 2.5 to 2 462 g (median 86.4 g, interquartile range 14.8–353.8 g) and that of mussels on the stipes from 7.6 to 3 492 g (median 595.5 g, interquartile range 194.0–955.0 g). Mussel clumps consisted mostly of individuals <40 mm in length. Mussel clumps supported a rich biota of 80 invertebrate and 13 algal species. Larger clumps supported more epibiotic species, and those on stipes more species than those of comparable mass on kelp heads. The mussels and their associated epibiotic species negatively affected kelp buoyancy, but rarely enough to overcome natural buoyancy. Some kelp individuals that had been toppled by the weight of mussels and their epibiotic species, however, were encountered in situ. Implications of this invasion include large increases in animal biomass and species richness in the kelp canopy, plus reductions in kelp buoyancy and increased hydrodynamic drag on infected kelps, increasing their probability of being uprooted. Uprooted kelp individuals can raft long distances, potentially transporting both native and alien species to distant sites.