Deducing the spatial variability of exchange within a longitudinal channel water balance

Developing an appropriate data collection scheme to infer stream–subsurface interactions is not trivial due to the spatial and temporal variability of exchange flowpaths. Within the context of a case study, this paper presents the results from a number of common data collection techniques ranging from point to reach scales used in combination to better understand the spatial complexity of subsurface exchanges, infer the hydrologic conditions where individual influences of hyporheic and groundwater exchange components on stream water can be characterized, and determine where gaps in information arise. We start with a tracer‐based, longitudinal channel water balance to quantify hydrologic gains and losses at a sub‐reach scale nested within two consecutive reaches. Next, we look at groundwater and stream water surface levels, shallow streambed vertical head gradients, streambed and aquifer hydraulic conductivities, water chemistry, and vertical flux rates estimated from streambed temperatures to provide more spatially explicit information. As a result, a clearer spatial understanding of gains and losses was provided, but some limitations in interpreting results were identified even when combining information collected over various scales. Due to spatial variability of exchanges and areas of mixing, each technique frequently captured a combination of groundwater and hyporheic exchange components. Ultimately, this study provides information regarding technique selection, emphasizes that care must be taken when interpreting results, and identifies the need to apply or develop more advanced methods for understanding subsurface exchanges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What is the source of baseflow in agriculturally fragmented catchments? Complex groundwater/surface‐water interactions in three tributary catchments of the Wabash River,Indiana, USA

Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using ²²²Rn and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF₆, ³⁶Cl, and ³H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km²) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. ²²²Rn activities and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have ³⁶Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10^?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10^?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.     

The Uryakh ore field (NE Transbaikalia): Formation of structural assemblages in the centroid-type seismic regime

Syn-ore centroid type deformations that produced unusual structural assemblages are identified in the Uryakh ore field. The regularities of the deformation process comparable to a mechanism of the centroid-type seismic focus are established. The results of studying fluid inclusions suggest that the pressure—temperature parameters of the system correspond to conditions typical of the seismic regime. A model of formation of structural assemblages in a centroid-type dynamic regime with the participation of fluids is proposed for the first time.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

Rare Earth Element and yttrium compositions of Archean and Paleoproterozoic Fe formations revisited: New perspectives on the significance and mechanisms of deposition

The ocean and atmosphere were largely anoxic in the early Precambrian, resulting in an Fe cycle that was dramatically different than today’s. Extremely Fe-rich sedimentary deposits—i.e., Fe formations—are the most conspicuous manifestation of this distinct Fe cycle. Rare Earth Element (REE) systematics have long been used as a tool to understand the origin of Fe formations and the corresponding chemistry of the ancient ocean. However, many earlier REE studies of Fe formations have drawn ambiguous conclusions, partially due to analytical limitations and sampling from severely altered units. Here, we present new chemical analyses of Fe formation samples from 18 units, ranging in age from ca. 3.0 to 1.8 billion years old (Ga), which allow a reevaluation of the depositional mechanisms and significance of Precambrian Fe formations. There are several temporal trends in our REE and Y dataset that reflect shifts in marine redox conditions. In general, Archean Fe formations do not display significant shale-normalized negative Ce anomalies, and only Fe formations younger than 1.9 Ga display prominent positive Ce anomalies. Low Y/Ho ratios and high shale-normalized light to heavy REE (LREE/HREE) ratios are also present in ca. 1.9 Ga and younger Fe formations but are essentially absent in their Archean counterparts. These marked differences in Paleoproterozoic versus Archean REE + Y patterns can be explained in terms of varying REE cycling in the water column.Similar to modern redox-stratified basins, the REE + Y patterns in late Paleoproterozoic Fe formations record evidence of a shuttle of metal and Ce oxides across the redoxcline from oxic shallow seawater to deeper anoxic waters. Oxide dissolution—mainly of Mn oxides—in an anoxic water column lowers the dissolved Y/Ho ratio, raises the light to heavy REE ratio, and increases the concentration of Ce relative to the neighboring REE (La and Pr). Fe oxides precipitating at or near the chemocline will capture these REE anomalies and thus evidence for this oxide shuttle. In contrast, Archean Fe formations do not display REE + Y patterns indicative of an oxide shuttle, which implies an absence of a distinct Mn redoxcline prior to the rise of atmospheric oxygen in the early Paleoproterozoic. As further evidence for reducing conditions in shallow-water environments of the Archean ocean, REE data for carbonates deposited on shallow-water Archean carbonate platforms that stratigraphically underlie Fe formations also lack negative Ce anomalies. These results question classical models for deposition of Archean Fe formations that invoke oxidation by free oxygen at or above a redoxcline. In contrast, we add to growing evidence that metabolic Fe oxidation is a more likely oxidative mechanism for these Fe formations, implying that the Fe distribution in Archean oceans could have been controlled by microbial Fe uptake rather than the oxidative potential of shallow-marine environments.     

Micro-XCT chondrule classification for subsequent isotope analysis

Chondrules are microscopic, recrystallized melt droplets found in chondritic meteorites. High-resolution isotope analyses of minor elements require large enough element quantities which are obtained by dissolving entire chondrules. This work emphasizes the importance of X-ray computed tomography (XCT) to detect features that can significantly affect the bulk chondrule isotope composition. It thereby expands on other works by looking into chondrules from a wide range of chondrites including CR, CV, CB, CM, L, and EL samples before turning toward complex and time-consuming chemical processing. The features considered are metal and igneous rims, compound chondrules, matrix remnants, and metal contents. In addition to the identification of these features, computed tomography prevents the inclusion of non-chondrule samples (pure matrix or metal) as well as samples where two different chondrule fragments with potentially different isotope compositions are held together by matrix. Matrix surrounding chondrules is also easily detected and the affected chondrules can be omitted or reprocessed. The results strongly encourage to perform XCT before dissolution of chondrules for isotope analysis as a non-invasive method.     

Why is risk aversion unaccounted for in environmental policy evaluations?

U.S. environmental regulations are increasingly influenced by cost-benefit analyses that are performed based on the guidance of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OMB’s Circular A-4 directs Federal agencies to assume “risk neutrality” in conducting regulatory analysis, and in important instances, this guidance is not supported by economic theory. Risk neutrality is computationally convenient, and it can be justified when only the costs and benefits of regulations themselves are uncertain, because these risks are spread across a large population. However, the Circular A-4 does not distinguish between regulations that cause uncertainty and those that reduce pre-existing (i.e. baseline) uncertainty, such as the potential for catastrophic climate change. Basic economic theory shows that risk aversion should be incorporated into evaluations of policies that reduce pre-existing environmental uncertainty. Regulatory analyses generally ignore these risk-reduction benefits, leading to misinformed policymaking. Quantifying risk premiums is difficult and controversial, but no more so than discounting future costs and benefits to present value terms. Similar to how OMB has established discount rates for use in regulatory analyses, a method for when and how to incorporate risk aversion into policy evaluations should replace the blanket guidance for risk neutrality.     

Transient twenty-first century changes in daily-scale temperature extremes in the United States

A key question for climate mitigation and adaptation decisions is how quickly significant changes in temperature extremes will emerge as greenhouse gas concentrations increase, and whether that emergence will be uniform between hot and cold extremes and across different geographic areas. We use a high-resolution, multi-member ensemble climate model experiment over the United States (U.S.) to investigate the transient response of the annual frequency, duration and magnitude of 8 daily-scale extreme temperature indices during the twenty-first century of the A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate the time of emergence of a permanent exceedance (PE) above the colder part of the historical (1980–2009) extremes distribution, and the time of emergence of a new norm (NN) centered on the historical maxima (for hot extremes) or minima (for cold extremes). We find that during the twenty-first century, hot extremes permanently exceed the historical distribution’s colder half over large areas of the U.S., and that the hot extremes distribution also becomes centered on or above the historical distribution’s maxima. The changes are particularly robust for the exceedance of the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature over the West and the Northeast (with the earliest emergence of a PE by 2030 and of a NN by 2040), for warm days over the Southwest (with the earliest emergence of a PE by 2020 and of a NN by 2030), and tropical nights over the eastern U.S. (with the earliest emergence of a PE by 2020 and of a NN by 2030). Conversely, no widespread emergence of a PE or a NN is found for most cold extremes. Exceptions include frost day frequency (with a widespread emergence of a PE below the historical median frequency by 2030 and of a NN by 2040 over the western U.S.), and cold night frequency (with an emergence of a PE below the historical median frequency by 2040 and of a NN by 2060 in virtually the entire U.S.). Our analysis implies a transition over the next half century to a climate of recently unprecedented heat stress in many parts of the U.S., along with cold extremes that, although less frequent, remain at times as long and as severe as are found in the current climate.