Modelling the equilibrium speciation of nickel in the Tweed Estuary, UK: Voltammetric determinations and simulations using WHAM

The complexation of dissolved Ni has been evaluated in a rapidly-flushed, rural estuary (Tweed, UK) by ligand exchange-adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry. Results suggest the presence of strongly binding ligands, L, throughout, with average stability constants of about 10¹⁹ and which are saturated by ambient Ni concentrations. Equilibrium speciation calculations incorporating these constants in WHAM, version 6, predict an increase in Ni complexation (as NiL) from about 50% of total dissolved Ni in fresh water to over 90% in sea water. Equivalent calculations using the default-mode fulvic and humic substances (FS and HS, respectively) encoded in the WHAM database predict a reduction in complexation (as NiFS + NiHS) from about 20% in fresh water to less than 1% in sea water. Discrepancies arising from the two approaches are largely attributed to the different analytical detection windows employed. Thus, a better representation of Ni complexation is derived from including both types of complexant in the speciation calculations, resulting in estimates of net complexation in excess of 60% of total dissolved Ni throughout the estuary. The uncertainties and assumptions inherent in all computations illustrate the difficulty in measuring or predicting metal complexation in estuaries.     

Interactions among metals in the spectrochemical determination of trace amounts of cadmium in marine mussels

The determination of trace amounts of inorganic elements by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrophotometry (ETA-AAS) or inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) suffers from some kinds of interference due to the inorganic fraction of the matrix of many environmental samples. The ratio between a major matrix element and the analyzed trace element plays an important role in the spectrochemical behaviour of the latter. The resulting enhancing or depressing effect also gives rise to severe faults when the well known standard addition method (SAM) is used. The present work shows the interactions due to the presence of elements such as calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium and iron during the spectrochemical determinations of trace amounts of cadmium in marine mussels. A possible liquid anion exchange extraction is suggested for the analysis of cadmium by ETA-AAS.     

Natural and man-induced stress evolution of slopes: the Monte Mario hill in Rome

The paper deals with stress-release effects induced by man-made cuts or excavations into natural stiff clay slopes that experienced erosion in response to valley deepening. The study was focused on the Monte Mario hill in Rome (Italy), which formed part of an area of recent urban expansion. The methodology of the study relied on a reference engineering-geology model, which was developed on the basis of site and laboratory data and stress–strain analyses. The latter analyses were carried out with the finite-difference code FLAC 4.0. Numerical modelling was based on a sequential approach, taking into account the main evolutionary stages of the Tiber river valley in Romeȁ9s urban area and then making cuts at the bottom of the slope located south of the Monte Mario Astronomical Observatory. The simulation revealed the stress-release effects that fluvial erosion and excavation fronts have caused on the investigated slopes and their consequent gravitational instabilities. These processes appear with metre-scale displacements, followed by stress-release cracks (actually observed on the slopes under review). In quantifying stress-release deformations, the simulation took into account the possible role of creep in the observed retardation of stress-release effects.Research activities were carried on with the co-operation of Dȁ9Arcangelo A. (Consorzio TREESSE, andrea.darcangelo@libero.it) and Moretti S. (IMG S.r.l. Servizi Tecnici per lȁ9Ingegneria e lȁ9Ambiente, moretti@img-srl.it)     

The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis

The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability.     

From the geological to the numerical model in the analysis of gravity-induced slope deformations: An example from the Central Apennines (Italy)

This paper presents the findings from a study on gravity-induced slope deformations along the northern slope of Mt. Nuria (Rieti-Italy). The slope extends from the village of Pendenza to the San Vittorino plain and hosts the Peschiera River springs, i.e. the most important springs of the Central Apennines (average discharge: about 18 m³/s).

Detailed geological-geomorphological and geomechanical surveys, supported by a site stress-strain monitoring system and laboratory tests, led us to define the main evolutionary features of the studied phenomena. Based on the collected data, a “geological-evolutionary model” was developed with a view to identifying a spatio-temporal correlation between relief forms, jointing of the rock mass and its stress conditions. The geological-evolutionary model was expected to improve numerical simulations and to test our assumptions.

The numerical model also allowed us to simulate changes in the stress-strain conditions of the rock mass and correlate them with jointing, seepage, as well as with site-detected and site-monitored forms and deformations. In particular, significant relations between seepage, tensile stresses within the rock mass, karst solution and collapse of cavities were identified.     

Nanoseismic monitoring of gravity-induced slope instabilities for the risk management of an aqueduct infrastructure in Central Apennines (Italy)

A monitoring system is operative in the Peschiera Springs slope (Central Apennines, Italy) to mitigate the landslide risk related to the hosted main drainage plant of Rome aqueducts by providing alert warning. Such a strategy allows to avoid out-of-service episodes so reducing extra-costs of water distribution management. The Peschiera Springs slope is involved in a rock mass creep characterized by an average steady strain rate of 1 mm year⁻¹ and responsible for several landforms including sinkholes, subvertical scarps and trenches. Moreover, an average aquifer discharge of 19 m³ s⁻¹ causes an intense limestone dissolution concentrated in correspondence with release bands and discontinuities that dislodge the jointed rock mass. Since 2008, an accelerometric network has been operating within the slope; about 1300 microseismic local events were recorded up to now, distinguished in failures and collapses. A control index, based on frequency of occurrence and cumulative energy of the recorded microseismic events was defined to provide three levels of alert. In 2013, a temporary nanoseismic Seismic Navigation System (SNS) array was installed inside a tunnel of the drainage plant to integrate the pre-existent seismic monitoring system. This array allowed to record 37 microseismic events, which locations are in good agreement with the evolutionary geological model of the ongoing gravitational slope deformation. In 2014, a permanent nanoseismic SNS array was installed in the plant and allowed to record several sequences of underground collapses including more than 500 events. The nanoseismic monitoring system is allowing to: (1) increase the detection level of the monitoring system; (2) locate hypocentres of the events; and (3) detect precursors of the strongest events.

     

Convolutive independent component analysis for processing massive datasets: a case study at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

A novel procedure is proposed to analyse continuous seismic signal on hourly scales to have a prompt discrimination among the different sources. Specifically, this approach is applied to a massive dataset recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera during the year 2006 when a swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred. The convolutive independent component analysis is adopted to obtain a clear separation among meteo-marine microseism, anthropogenic noise, hydrothermal tremor in the absence of volcano-tectonic activity, whereas in non-stationary conditions a contribution connected to the corner frequency of the earthquakes emerges. A coarse-grained variable to be monitored continuously is introduced, i.e. the frequency associated with the maximum amplitude of the power spectral density of the deconvolutive independent components. That parameter is sensitive to the variation in the frequency bands of interest (e.g. that corresponding to the corner frequencies of volcano-tectonic events) and can be used as marker of the insurgence of seismic activity.

     

Characteristics of the seismic attenuation in two tectonically active zones of Southern Europe

The seismic energy attenuation in the frequency range of 1–18 Hz was studied in the two tectonically active zones of Irno Valley (Southern Italy) and Granada Basin (South-East Spain). Data were recorded by short period vertical components seismographs for low-magnitude local earthquakes. The method of coda waves, assuming singleS toS scattering approximation, was used to calculate the quality factorQ from the two data set. Results show a quality factor increasing with frequency, following the empirical lawQ=Q _o f ⁿ .Q _o andn are lower for the Irno Valley than for Granada. This result is interpreted in terms of different scattering environments present in the two investigated areas.     

Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Enhanced data and methods for improving open and free global population grids: putting ‘leaving no one behind’ into practice

ABSTRACT

Data on global population distribution are a strategic resource currently in high demand in an age of new Development Agendas that call for universal inclusiveness of people. However, quality, detail, and age of census data varies significantly by country and suffers from shortcomings that propagate to derived population grids and their applications. In this work, the improved capabilities of recent remote sensing-derived global settlement data to detect and mitigate major discrepancies with census data is explored. Open layers mapping built-up presence were used to revise census units deemed as ‘unpopulated’ and to harmonize population distribution along coastlines. Automated procedures to detect and mitigate these anomalies, while minimizing changes to census geometry, preserving the regional distribution of population, and the overall counts were developed, tested, and applied. The two procedures employed for the detection of deficiencies in global census data obtained high rates of true positives, after verification and validation. Results also show that the targeted anomalies were significantly mitigated and are encouraging for further uses of free and open geospatial data derived from remote sensing in complementing and improving conventional sources of fundamental population statistics.