Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

In situ strength measurements on natural upper-mantle minerals

Using in situ strength measurements at pressures up to 10 GPa and at room temperature, 400, 600, and 700°C, we examined rheological properties of olivine, orthopyroxene, and chromian-spinel contained in a mantle-derived xenolith. Mineral strengths were estimated using widths of X-ray diffraction peaks as a function of pressure, temperature, and time. Differential stresses of all minerals increase with increasing pressure, but they decrease with increasing temperature because of elastic strain on compression and stress relaxation during heating. During compression at room temperature, all minerals deform plastically at differential stress of 4–6 GPa. During subsequent heating, thermally induced yielding is observed in olivine at 600°C. Neither orthopyroxene nor spinel shows complete stress relaxation, but both retain some stress even at 700°C. The strength of the minerals decreases in the order of chromian-spinel ≈ orthopyroxene > olivine for these conditions. This order of strength is consistent with the residual pressure of fluid inclusions in mantle xenoliths.     

The instability of viscous two-layer oscillatory flows

The instability of oscillatory flows in a two-layer fluid where the two layers differ in density and viscosity has been analysed using a perturbation method for long waves with special interest on effects of viscosity, time scale, density and depth of the fluid. The flow of a fluid with homogeneous density can be unstable, when the kinematic viscosity of the upper fluid layer is different from that of the lower one. Viscosity stratification results in unstable oscillatory flows. Two limiting cases of single-layer flow are also considered.     

Detection of systematic errors in XBT data and their correction

Comparison experiment between XBT of T-7 probe and CTD was conducted at 15 stations in the sea area centered on 29°N, 135°E in December 1985. There were systematic errors in XBT temperature profiles in comparison with CTD temperature profiles. The main cause of errors was attributed to an error in the free-fall speed of the XBT probes which was provided by the XBT maker. A previous equation for depth correction proposed by Heinmilleret al. (1983) could not give effective correction for our data. A new equation between the probe depth and the elapsed time from landing of the probe on the water was obtained by the method of adjusting temperature gradients of XBT profiles to those of CTD profiles. This equation agreed with the theoretical result given by Seaver and Kuleshov (1982) much better than that of Heinmilleret al. (1983). Systematic errors due to a scatter of values of the reference resistance and variation of B-constant of thermistors used in XBT also seemed to exist. After an adjustment using the temperature difference between XBT and CTD in the mixed layer with depths of about 100 m, the standard deviation of temperature difference between XBT and CTD from the surface to the depth of 750 m was 0.14°C.     

Satellite detection of red tide in Ariake Sound, 1998–2001

High resolution SeaWiFS data was used to detect red tide events that occurred in the Ariake Sound, Japan, a small embayment known as one of the most productive areas in Japan. SeaWiFS chlorophyll data clearly showed that a large red tide event, which damaged seaweed (Nori) cultures, started early in December 2000 in Isahaya Bay, expanded to the whole sound and persisted to the end of February 2001. The monthly average of SeaWiFS data from May 1998 to December 2001 indicated that the chlorophyll peaks appeared twice a year, in early summer and in fall, after the peaks of rain and river discharge. The SeaWiFS data showed that the red tide event during 2000–2001 winter was part of the fall bloom; however, it started later and continued significantly longer than other years. Satellite ocean color data is useful to detect the red tide; however the algorithms require improvement to accurately estimate chlorophyll in highly turbid water and in red tide areas.     

North Pacific Subtropical Mode Waters Observed in Long XBT Cross Sections along 32.5°N Line

The S/V Shoyo, of the Hydrographic Department, Japan Coast Guard, has conducted high-density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) measurements along the 32.5°N line in the North Pacific every year from 1990 to 1993 as a part of the Japanese-World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). These XBT data are analyzed here, focusing on year-to-year variations of the inventory and core layer temperature (CLT) of the North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW). Large year-to-year changes are found in the NPSTMW CLTs estimated in longitudes between 140°E and 160°E. CLT values were found of 17.4°C in 1990, 17.1°C in 1991, 17.3°C in 1992 and 17.6°C in 1993. Inspection of the wintertime westerlies over the formation area and sea surface temperature distribution revealed that this change in CLT can be qualitatively attributed to the strength of atmospheric cooling in the formation area in the previous winter. Although a large year-to-year variation of NPSTMW inventory was also found, it is hard to state any relationship between CLT and atmospheric forcing. There is a possibility that different observational seasons may affect the inventory. It has also been found that the thermocline depth in 1991 was shallower in the sea area east of 180° than in 1992 and 1993. Associated with this change, the North Pacific central mode water (NPCMW), characterized by thermostad with temperatures ranging from 14°C to 11°C, appears in the sea area east of 180° in the 1992 and 1993 cross sections. The 1993 cross section, which ranged from the Japanese coast to the west coast of North America, possessed another thermostad in the surface layer, with a temperature of about 17°C in the eastern part of the cross section, off California. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A New Fall-Rate Equation for T-5 Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) by TSK

The accuracy of the manufacturer’s fall-rate equation for the T-5 Model of expendable bathythermograph (XBT) has been investigated based on about 300 collocated pairs of XBT-CTD (Conductivity-Temperature-Depth profiler) measurements in various climatological regions. We found that the equation systematically overestimates depth by about 5% for the T-5 produced by Tsurumi Seiki, Co. Ltd. (TSK), but almost no bias is associated with the T-5 produced by Sippican, Inc., in USA. The cause of this difference is not clear, because the two manufacturers’ T-5 probes are reported to have identical shape and weight in water. We propose a new fall-rate equation for the TSK T-5: z(t) = 6.54071t - 0.0018691t ², where z(t) is depth in meters at time, t, in seconds.     

Some features of jump in water temperature in aSargassum forest

To clarify the influence of aSargassum forest on water temperature distributions observations were made inside and outside aSargassum forest off the Nagata Shore on the northern Saiki Bay open to the Bungo Channel on the Pacific side of Kyushu, Japan. About sixty thermistor probes were deployed at 0.5 m depth intervals from the bottom to the sea surface at seven stations spaced at 50–80 m distances along two transects: one inside the forest and the other outside. Water temperature was measured at five minutes intervals from 6 to 9 August 1987 with thermistor probes. The spatial standing crop distribution of theSargassum forest along the transects was investigated. A water temperature jump of about 2°C, recorded during the observation, is probably caused by an intrusion of a warm water mass from the central Bungo Channel to Saiki Bay. The water temperature jump under theSargassum forest on the rough bottom with stones occurred one to two hours behind that outside the forest (sandy bed) although the distance between the transects inside and outside the forest was only 50–80 m. It is suggested that theSargassum forest and the rough bottom would prevent intruding warm water from smoothly replacing cold water due to resistance of theSargassum species and the bottom to a current.     

Detecting fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

Sea surface dynamic topography (SSDT) can be divided into temporal mean SSDT and fluctuation SSDT. The former is approximated with a climatological mean SSDT and the latter is derived from satellite altimetry data, to give an approximated total SSDT (called a composite SSDT). The method is applied to detecting fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data from the first year mission in 1992–1993. The fluctuation SSDT averaged over a wide area south of Japan clearly shows an annual cycle with an amplitude of about 15 cm. Temporal changes of SSDT along a subsatellite track crossing the Kuroshio compare moderately well with those estimated from repeated hydrographic observations, although there is a discrepancy of unknown origin. The composite SSDT also compares well with SSDT estimated from the same hydrographic data. Horizontal distribution of the surface geostrophic velocity component normal to subsatellite tracks is derived every ten days from the composite SSDT. Most locations of estimated strong eastward geostrophic velocities coincide well with locations of the Kuroshio axis determined every 15 days fromin situ surface velocity measurements on various vessels; for example, a fairly large meander of the Kuroshio south of Honshu is clearly detected. It is concluded that the composite SSDT can be used reliably to detect fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan.     

Annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics as revealed from OLR data

In this study, the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data of eight years have been used to investigate the annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics. The results of EOF analysis indicate that the first three eigenvectors reflect the essential features in OLR annual variation. However, they contribute little to the interannual change. In comparison, the fourth to the sixth components have very large year-to-year variations. The pronounced anomalies are located over the tropics with east-west dipole pattern. It implies that ENSO events are related closely to the variation of the Walker circulation.