Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall‐induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall

Translational landslides and debris flows are often initiated during intense or prolonged rainfall. Empirical thresholds aim to classify the rain conditions that are commonly associated with landslide occurrence and therefore improve understating of these hazards and predictive ability. Objective techniques that are used to determine these thresholds are likely to be affected by the length of the rain record used, yet this is not routinely considered. Moreover, remotely sensed spatially continuous rainfall observations are under‐exploited. This study compares and evaluates the effect of rain record length on two objective threshold selection techniques in a national assessment of Scotland using weather radar data. Thresholds selected by ‘threat score’ are sensitive to rain record length whereas, in a first application to landslides, ‘optimal point’ (OP) thresholds prove relatively consistent. OP thresholds increase landslide detection and may therefore be applicable in early‐warning systems. Thresholds combining 1‐ and 12‐day antecedence variables best distinguish landslide initiation conditions and indicate that Scottish landslides may be initiated by lower rain accumulation and intensities than previously thought. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

Seed biology of Australian arid zone species: Germination of 18 species used for rehabilitation

Revegetation of disturbed land, particularly in arid environments, is often hindered by low seedling establishment. Information on seed biology and germination cues of keystone species is lacking, particularly in arid Australia; a major zone for mining developments. This study investigated seed characteristics and germination of 18 common species required for rehabilitation of disturbed areas at Shark Bay Salt in the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia. Untreated seeds of seven species (Aphanopetalum clematideum, Atriplex bunburyana, Austrostipa elegantissima, Melaleuca cardiophylla, Pembertonia latisquamea, Rhagodia baccata, Salsola tragus) exhibited high germination percentages. Seeds of two species (Acacia tetragonophylla, Stylobasium spathulatum) had low imbibition, which increased with hot-water treatment, hence require scarification for germination. Gibberellic acid, smoke water and karrikinolide (a butenolide isolated from smoke) substantially increased germination percentages of three species (Anthocercis littorea, Diplolaena grandiflora, Solanum orbiculatum). Seeds of the remaining six species (Dioscorea hastifolia, Eremophila oldfieldii, Nitraria billardierei, Ptilotus exaltatus, Thryptomene baeckeacea, Zygophyllum fruticulosum) had low germination percentages regardless of treatment. Most species germinated equally well at 26/13 °C and 33/18 °C, however seven species had improved performance at 26/13 °C. This study is significant to land managers and conservation agencies with an interest in optimising germination of arid zone seeds for restoration.     

The resilience and sustainability of local wetland management institutions in Illubabor and Western Wellega,Ethiopia

Local community based institutions that coordinate the management of natural resources have been linked to socioecological resilience, adaptation and sustainability within rural livelihood systems throughout the developing world. The resilience and sustainability of related local institutions, however, is influenced by their relationship with external actors and institutions, particularly in facilitating, supporting or hindering local institutional arrangements. From this standpoint, this paper examines the case of local community based institutions involved in wetland management in western Ethiopia. Drawing upon the findings of participatory fieldwork undertaken in eight wetland‐using communities of Illubabor and Western Wellega zones in Oromia Region it is argued that although local institutions do play a key role in coordinating wetland management and sustaining the benefits from wetlands, the sustainability and resilience of the institutions themselves is threatened by a range of factors. Despite their grassroots nature, their effectiveness is influenced by their reliance on local government backstopping that appears to have diminished in recent years, as well as a perceived lack of local government support for collective action over individual rights.     

Book reviews

The Settlement of the American Continents: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Human Biogeography. C. Michael Barton, Geoffrey A. Clark, David R. Yesner, and Georges A. Pearson (Editors), 2004. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, $75 (hardcover).     

Early dismissals in public schools on potential severe weather days

Survey responses from 76 public school districts in Mississippi and Alabama were analyzed along with county-level demographics, tornado-path data, and tornado warning data to investigate the emerging trend of early dismissals. No two districts had identical responses, but the concern of safety was consistently mentioned. The highest number of reported dismissals would have resulted in a loss of <2 % of total annual class time. The rates of dismissals reported by districts were compared with tornado warning days to identify potential over-dismissal, which was found in 51 % of districts. Rates of dismissal and over-dismissal were analyzed with variables from survey responses, tornado warning data, tornado-path data, and county census data to determine variables that influence differences among districts. Various stepwise models indicate that districts with higher poverty levels could be less likely to dismiss. Permutation tests and stepwise models show that early dismissal and over-dismissal are more likely when a district: (1) has a higher number of killer tornadoes in the last 5 years, (2) has a higher number of recent injury-causing tornadoes, (3) has a higher number of total killer tornadoes since 1950, (4) is in a smaller county, (5) has dismissal decisions made by a team, (6) is a county district rather than a city district, and (7) has a lower level of poverty. The inverse relationship with poverty suggests that schools in poorer areas may be holding students in school because they consider them to be safer there than at home, or it could be due to a lack of resources at the school. All of these are based on a district’s location and plans, things that can be determined before a potential dismissal. These indicators can be used to highlight districts most likely to dismiss and possibly reduce rates of over-dismissal by alerting districts to their predisposed tendencies.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Lead isotope systematics of some igneous rocks from the Egyptian shield

Lead isotope data on late Precambrian igneous rocks from the eastern desert of Egypt are presented. Previous work has indicated that this igneous suite is characterized by uniformly low initial ratios of ${}^{37}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ (< 0.7035). The Pb data define three groups, loosely corresponding to age. An older tonalite to granodiorite (OTG) suite, with ages in the range 610–710 Ma, has Pb isotope characteristics similar to modern, mantle-derived oceanic mafic rocks. The age-corrected initial Pb isotope ratios of the OTG group lie near the “ocean regression line” in correlation diagrams of ${}^{206}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ vs. ${}^{207}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ and ${}^{203}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$. The isotope data imply an origin for the OTG group analogous to calc-alkalic igneous rocks in modern intra-oceanic island arcs.A younger suite of K-rich plutonic rocks (570–595 Ma) has similar ${}^{206}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ and ${}^{208}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ initial ratios relative to the OTG suite, but have higher ${}^{207}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ initial ratios when calculated from measured whole-rock U and Pb contents. However, K-feldspar and galena, associated with this suite, indicate initial Pb isotope ratios close to the OTG suite. We interpret this to indicate that the younger granites could have originated by anatexis of OTG-type material, but they probably experienced an episode of metasomatism after emplacement.A suite of volcanic rocks (the Dokhan Volcanics) from the central eastern desert are intermediate between the younger granites and OTG in both age (～ 610 Ma) and Pb isotope characteristics.Limited data on initial ${}^{208}\text{Pb}{}^{204}\text{Pb}$ ratios suggest that all the Egyptian samples originated from a source with anomalously low $\text{Th}\text{Pb}$ ratios.Although the relative abundance of granitic rocks in the Egyptian Shield decreases to the south, no evidence of north-south heterogeneity in the Pb isotope composition of the respective source regions is apparent in the data. However, the westernmost sample studied, from the Aswan area, contains distinctly more radiogenic Pb relative to the mean. This location may mark the boundary between the Late Precambrian ensimatic orogen now outcropping in the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian Shields, and an older sialic craton to the west.