Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transient phenomena in the energetic behind-the-limb solar flare of september 29, 1989

The powerful cosmic ray flare of Sept. 29, 1989 occurred behind the limb and was observed over a wide spectral range. The analysis of optical, radio, and other relevant data suggest two phases of energy release. After an impulsive phase a prolonged post eruption energy release occurred in an extended region of the corona following the eruption of a large coronal mass ejection (CME). This phase is responsible for numerous coronal and interplanetary phenomena including the ground-level increase of cosmic rays.     

SHRIMP zircon dating and Sm/Nd isotopic investigations of Neoproterozoic granitoids, Eastern Desert, Egypt

There is an increasing evidence for the involvement of pre-Neoproterozoic zircons in the Arabian–Nubian Shield, a Neoproterozoic crustal tract that is generally regarded to be juvenile. The source and significance of these xenocrystic zircons are not clear. In an effort to better understand this problem, older and younger granitoids from the Egyptian basement complex were analyzed for chemical composition, SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages, and Sm–Nd isotopic compositions. Geochemically, the older granitoids are metaluminous and exhibit characteristics of I-type granites and most likely formed in a convergent margin (arc) tectonic environment. On the other hand, the younger granites are peraluminous and exhibit the characteristics of A-type granites; these are post-collisional granites. The U–Pb SHRIMP dating of zircons revealed the ages of magmatic crystallization as well as the presence of slightly older, presumably inherited zircon grains. The age determined for the older granodiorite is 652.5 ± 2.6 Ma, whereas the younger granitoids are 595–605 Ma. Xenocrystic zircons are found in most of the younger granitoid samples; the xenocrystic grains are all Neoproterozoic, but fall into three age ranges that correspond to the ages of other Eastern Desert igneous rocks, viz. 710–690, 675–650 and 635–610 Ma. The analyzed granitoids have (+3.8 to +6.5) and crystallization ages, which confirm previous indications that the Arabian–Nubian Shield is juvenile Neoproterozoic crust. These results nevertheless indicate that older Neoproterozoic crust contributed to the formation of especially the younger granite magmas.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Nonlinear coupled response of offshore tension leg platforms to regular wave forces

Among the compliant platforms, the tension leg platform (TLP) is a vertically moored structure with excess buoyancy. The TLP is designed to behave in the same way as any other moored structure in horizontal plane, at the same time inheriting the stiffness of a fixed platform in the vertical plane. Dynamic response analysis of a TLP to deterministic first order wave forces is presented, considering coupling between the degrees-of-freedom surge, sway, heave, roll, pitch and yaw. The analysis considers nonlinearities produced due to changes in cable tension and due to nonlinear hydrodynamic drag forces. The wave forces on the elements of the pontoon structure are calculated using Airy's wave theory and Morison's equation ignoring diffraction effects. The nonlinear equation of motion is solved in the time domain by Newmark's beta integration scheme. The effects of different parameters that influence the response of the TLP are then investigated.     

Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore Spar platforms under regular sea waves

Many innovative floating offshore structures have been proposed for cost effectiveness of oil and gas exploration and production in water depths exceeding one thousand meters in recent years. One such type of platform is the offshore floating Spar platform. The Spar platform is modelled as a rigid body with six degrees-of-freedom, connected to the sea floor by multi-component catenary mooring lines, which are attached to the Spar platform at the fairleads. The response dependent stiffness matrix consists of two parts (a) the hydrostatics provide restoring force in heave, roll and pitch, (b) the mooring lines provide the restoring force which are represented here by nonlinear horizontal springs. A unidirectional regular wave model is used for computing the incident wave kinematics by Airy’s wave theory and force by Morison’s equation. The response analysis is performed in time domain to solve the dynamic behavior of the moored Spar platform as an integrated system using the iterative incremental Newmark’s Beta approach. Numerical studies are conducted for sea state conditions with and without coupling of degrees-of-freedom.     

Response behaviour of triangular tension leg platforms under impact loading

Excellent station keeping characteristics and relative insensitivity with increasing water depth make triangular tension leg platforms (TLPs) a proven concept in deep water oil exploration. TLPs are often subjected to less probable forces which arise due to collision of ships, icebergs or any other huge sea creature. Dynamic analysis of two triangular TLP models at water depths 1200 and 527.8 m is performed under regular waves along with impulse load acting at an angle of 45 degrees at the TLP column. Hydrodynamic forces on these TLPs are evaluated using modified Morison equation, based on water particle kinematics arrived at using Stokes’ fifth order wave theory. Based on numerical studies conducted, it is seen that impulse loading acting on corner column of TLP significantly affect its response while that acting on pontoons dose not affect TLPs behaviour.     

Second-order drift force response of offshore guyed towers

An iterative frequency domain method of analysis is presented for determining the response behaviour of Guyed Offshore Towers to low-frequency, second-order wave drift forces generated in a random sea environment. For the response analysis, the tower is idealized as a shear beam with a rotational spring at the bottom support. The guylines are replaced by a non-linear spring. The second-order drift force is considered to be proportional to the square of the wave elevation and is simulated using a drift force coefficient and the time history of a slowly varying wave envelope in random sea. The responses due to drift forces are obtained in frequency domain by incorporating the non-linearities produced due to non-linear guy lines. An example problem is solved under different random sea states to compare the response behaviour of the tower obtained by the second-order wave force, the first-order wave force and a combination of the two.     

Flare development in active region NOAA 6891, 30 October, 1991

A great sunspot group of October 1991 (NOAA 6891 atL = 189,B = –10) was observed, in which an eruptive flare of importance (X2.5/31B) has been reported. A Caii-line 3933 filter was used, and during a time interval of 3 hours more than 90 frames were taken, using a CCD camera. The progress and the distribution in size of the two main flare points have been obtained; they covered an area of about 1800 millionths of the solar disk within a time interval of about 24 min. The average apparent horizontal velocity was 70 km s^–1.