Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

AMR Simulations of Magnetohydrodynamic Problems by the CESE Method in Curvilinear Coordinates

The objective of this paper is to present new extensions of the space – time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method for simulations of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) problems in general curvilinear coordinates by using an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) grid system. By transforming the governing MHD equations from the physical space (x,y,z) to the computational space (ξ,η,ζ) while retaining the form of conservation, the CESE method is established for MHD in the curvilinear coordinates. Utilizing the parallel AMR package PARAMESH, we present the first implementation of applying the AMR CESE method for MHD (AMR-CESE-MHD) in both Cartesian and curvilinear coordinates. To show the validity and capabilities of the AMR-CESE-MHD code, a suite of numerical tests in two and three dimensions including ideal MHD and resistive MHD are carried out, with two of them in both Cartesian and curvilinear coordinates. Numerical tests show that our results are highly consistent with those obtained previously by other authors, and the results under both coordinate systems confirm each other very well.     

Geoeffective Analysis of CMEs Under Current Sheet Magnetic Coordinates

Using 100 CME–ICME events during 1997.01–2002.11, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observations at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to statistically study the characteristics of the CME–ICME events and the corresponding geomagnetic storm intensity. The transit times of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth are also investigated, by taking into account of the angle between the CME eruption normal (defined as the vector from the Sun center to the CME eruption source) and the Sun-Earth line. Our preliminary conclusions are: 1. The distribution of the CME sources in our CMC system is obviously different from that in the ordinary heliographic coordinate system. The sources of CMEs are mainly centralized near the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and the number of events decreases with the increment of the angular distance from the CME source to the HCS on the solar surface; 2. A large portion of the total events belong to the same–side events (referring to the CME source located on the same side of the HCS as the Earth), while only a small portion belong to the opposite–side events (the CME source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth). 3. The intense geomagnetic storms are usually induced by the same–side events, while the opposite side events are commonly associated with relatively weak geomagnetic storms; 4. The angle between the CME normal and the Sun–Earth line is used to estimate the transit time of the CME in order to reflect the influence of propagation characteristic of the CME along the Sun–Earth direction. With our new prediction method in context of the CMC coordinate, the averaged absolute error for these 100 events is 10.33 hours and the resulting relative error is not larger than 30% for 91% of all the events.     

Simulation of the Unusual Solar Minimum with 3D SIP-CESE MHD Model by Comparison with Multi-Satellite Observations

The observations both near the Sun and in the heliosphere during the activity minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 exhibit different phenomena from those typical of the previous solar minima. In this paper, we have chosen Carrington rotation 2070 in 2008 to investigate the properties of the background solar wind by using the three-dimensional (3D) Solar?CInterPlanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. We also study the effects of polar magnetic fields on the characteristics of the solar corona and the solar wind by conducting simulations with an axisymmetric polar flux added to the observed magnetic field. The numerical results are compared with the observations from multiple satellites, such as the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Ulysses, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), Wind and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The comparison demonstrates that the first simulation with the observed magnetic fields reproduces some observed peculiarities near the Sun, such as relatively small polar coronal holes, the presence of mid- and low-latitude holes, a tilted and warped current sheet, and the broad multiple streamers. The numerical results also capture the inconsistency between the locus of the minimum wind speed and the location of the heliospheric current sheet, and predict slightly slower and cooler polar streams with a relatively smaller latitudinal width, broad low-latitude intermediate-speed streams, and globally weak magnetic field and low density in the heliosphere. The second simulation with strengthened polar fields indicates that the weak polar fields in the current minimum play a crucial role in determining the states of the corona and the solar wind.     

The statistical and numerical study of the global distribution of coronal plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs over a 10-year period

The basic characteristics of the global distribution for the corona plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs are analyzed with the statistical and numerical methods for 136 Carrington Rotations (CRs) covering four different phases of solar activity. By using the observational data and the velocity distribution model in the corona, the statistical average distribution of the magnetic field, density and the coronal mass outputs are analyzed for the four different phases. Then, a numerical study of the global distribution near 2.5 Rs has been made by solving a self-consistent MHD system. Finally, the solar wind speed at 1 AU is given by mapping the speed at 2.5 Rs to that near 1 AU, and the comparison of the numerical results with the observational measurements and the simulation result of the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model are made during more than 5 years. The numerical results indicate that the global distributions on the source surface of 2.5 Rs at different phases of solar activity could be used to predict the change of the solar wind in interplanetary space.     

东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链简介

“东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链”（简称子午工程）是我国空间科学领域开工建设的第一个国家重大基础设施项目。子午工程利用沿东半球120°E子午线附近和北纬30°N附近的15个综合性观测台站,运用无线电、地磁、光学和探空火箭等多种探测手段,连续监测地球表面20—30km以上到几百公里的中高层大气、电离层和磁层,以及十几个地球半径以外的行星际的空间环境参数。它将为我国各类用户提供完整、连续、可靠的多学科、多层次的空间环境地基综合监测数据。子午工程总投资1．67亿元,建设期3年,子午工程整体科学寿命预计超过11年。     

古尔班通古特沙漠地表辐射收支特征

古尔班通古特沙漠是中国最大的固定、半固定沙漠.利用2017年该沙漠克拉美丽站辐射资料,分析了古尔班通古特沙漠不同时间尺度和不同天气条件下的地表辐射变化特征.结果表明:(1)不同月份沙漠辐射收支各分量月平均日变化均呈单峰型,但极值大小及出现时间存在差异.各分量曝辐量季节变化明显:太阳总辐射表现为生长期(4-9月)＞积雪期...     

On the Collision Nature of Two Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review

Observational and numerical studies have shown that the kinematic characteristics of two or more coronal mass ejections (CMEs) may change significantly after a CME collision. The collision of CMEs can have a different nature, i.e. inelastic, elastic, and superelastic processes, depending on their initial kinematic characteristics. In this article, we first review the existing definitions of collision types including Newton’s classical definition, the energy definition, Poisson’s definition, and Stronge’s definition, of which the first two were used in the studies of CME–CME collisions. Then, we review the recent research progresses on the nature of CME–CME collisions with the focus on which CME kinematic properties affect the collision nature. It is shown that observational analysis and numerical simulations can both yield an inelastic, perfectly inelastic, merging-like collision, or a high possibility of a superelastic collision. Meanwhile, previous studies based on a 3D collision picture suggested that a low approaching speed of two CMEs is favorable for a superelastic nature. Since CMEs are an expanding magnetized plasma structure, the CME collision process is quite complex, and we discuss this complexity. Moreover, the models used in both observational and numerical studies contain many limitations. All of the previous studies on collisions have not shown the separation of two colliding CMEs after a collision. Therefore the collision between CMEs cannot be considered as an ideal process in the context of a classical Newtonian definition. In addition, many factors are not considered in either observational analysis or numerical studies, e.g. CME-driven shocks and magnetic reconnections. Owing to the complexity of the CME collision process, a more detailed and in-depth observational analysis and simulation work are needed to fully understand the CME collision process.     

卫星反演太阳紫外辐射数据产品在东疆黑戈壁区域的适用性验证

论文利用2017年东疆哈密地区红柳河黑戈壁地面高精度紫外辐射实测数据与美国NASA Langely研究中心大气科学数据中心提供的CERES_SYN1 deg_Ed4A产品数据,对卫星反演的紫外辐射A、B波段(UVA和UVB)数据在该地区的适用性进行了对比验证。结果表明：① 在日尺度上,该地区地面实测紫外辐射UVA和UVB与卫星反演数据之间的相关系数达0.9以上,其中在全天空情况下UVA平均偏差为1.15 W·m ^-2、UVB 平均偏差为0.03 W·m ^-2,晴天条件下UVA和UVB的平均偏差分别为0.93 W·m ^-2和0.03 W·m ^-2;② 在季节尺度上,实测和卫星反演UVA和UVB的偏差夏季最大,分别为2.04 W·m ^-2和0.05 W·m ^-2,春冬两季次之,秋季最小;③ 红柳河地区在春夏两季受到气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)影响较大,呈现显著负相关;④ 云量越大,紫外辐射削弱程度越大,在多云条件下地面实测与卫星反演UVA与UVB偏差最大,分别为1.73 W·m ^-2和0.05 W·m ^-2。     

A New Prediction Method for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks

Solar transient activities such as solar flares, disappearing filaments, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are solar manifestations of interplanetary (IP) disturbances. Forecasting the arrival time at the near Earth space of the associated interplanetary shocks following these solar disturbances is an important aspect in space weather forecasting because the shock arrival usually marks the geomagnetic storm sudden commencement (SSC) when the IMF Bz component is appropriately southward and/or the solar wind dynamic pressure behind the shock is sufficiently large. Combining the analytical study for the propagation of the blast wave from a point source in a moving, steady-state, medium with variable density (wei, 1982; wei and dryer 1991) with the energy estimation method in the ISPM model (smith and dryer 1990, 1995), we present a new shock propagation model (called SPM below) for predicting the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at Earth. The duration of the X-ray flare, the initial shock speed and the total energy of the transient event are used for predicting the arrival of the associated shocks in our model. Especially, the background speed, i.e., the convection effect of the solar wind is considered in this model. Applying this model to 165 solar events during the periods of January 1979 to October 1989 and February 1997 to August 2002, we found that our model could be practically equivalent to the prevalent models of STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time in our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 27.88% of all events, ≤30% for 71.52%, and ≤50% for 85.46%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other models. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.