Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Sediment transport in analogue flume models compared with real‐world sedimentary systems: a new look at scaling evolution of sedimentary systems in a flume

Evolution of sedimentary systems at large temporal and spatial scales cannot be scaled down to laboratory dimensions by conventional hydraulic Froude scaling. Therefore, many researchers question the validity of experiments aiming to simulate this evolution. Yet, it has been shown that laboratory experiments yield stratigraphic responses to allocyclic forcing that are remarkably similar to those in real‐world prototypes, hinting at scale independency with strong dependence on boundary conditions but weak dependence on the actual sediment transport dynamics. This paper addresses the dilemma by contrasting sediment transport rules that apply in the laboratory with those that apply in real‐world geological systems. It is demonstrated that the generation of two‐dimensional stratigraphy in a flume can be simulated numerically by the non‐linear diffusion equation. Sediment transport theory is used to demonstrate that only suspension‐dominated meandering rivers should be simulated with linear diffusion. With increasing grain‐size (coarse sand to gravel) and shallowness of river systems, the prediction of long‐term transport must be simulated by non‐linear, slope‐dependent diffusion to allow for increasing transport rates and thus change in stratigraphic style. To point out these differences in stratigraphic style, three stages in infill of accommodation have been defined here: (i) a start‐up stage, when the system is prograding to base level (e.g. the shelf edge) with no sediment flux beyond the base‐level point; (ii) a fill‐up stage, when the system is further aggrading while progressively more sediment is bypassing base level with the progression of the infill; and (iii) a keep‐up stage, when more than 90% of the input is bypassing the base level and less than 10% is used for filling the accommodation. By plotting the rate of change in flux for various degrees of non‐linearity (varying the exponent in the diffusion equation) it was found that the error between model and real‐world prototype is largest for the suspension‐dominated prototypes, although never more than 30% and only at the beginning of the fill‐up stage. The error reduces to only 10% for the non‐linear sandy‐gravelly and gravelly systems. These results are very encouraging and open up ways to calibrate numerical models of sedimentary system evolution by such experiments.     

Caldera formation on Santorini and the physiography of the islands in the late Bronze Age

The caldera of Santorini is a composite structure with a subsidence history extending over 100 ka or more. Geomorphological mapping shows that the present-day caldera wall is a complex assemblage of cliff surfaces of different ages, and that collapse at Santorini has repeatedly exhumed earlier caldera cliffs and unconformities. Cliffs bounding the southern, southeastern and northwestern rims of the caldera are morphologically fresh and probably formed during or soon after the Minoan eruption in the late Bronze Age. The well-scalloped shape of these cliffs is attributed to large-scale rotational landslip around the margins of the Minoan caldera. The deposit from one landslip is preserved subaerially. Minoan landslips in southeast santorini detached along the basement unconformity, exposing a cliff of the prevolcanic island. The caldera wall in the north, northeast and east preserves evidence for three generations of cliff: those of Minoan age and two earlier generations of caldera wall. The two early calderas can be dated relative to a well-established statigraphy of lavas and tuffs. The presence of in situ Minoan tephra plastered onto the present-day caldera wall provides evidence that these ancient caldera cliffs had already been exhumed prior to the Minoan eruption. Field relationships permit reconstruction of the physiography of Bronze-Age Santorini immediately before the Minoan eruption. The reconstruction differs from some previously published versions and is believed to be the most accurate to date. Bronze-Age Sa ntorini had a large flooded caldera formed 21 ka ago. This caldera must have acted as an excellent harbour for the Bronze-Age inhabitants of the island. The 3.6 ka Minoan eruption deepened and widened the extant caldera. The volume of Minoan collapse (25 km³) is in good agreement with published estimates for the volume of discharged magma if between 5 and 8 km³ of Minoan ignimbrite ponded as intracaldera tuff.     

Chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden. The chemical flux rates within the valley are strongly influenced by the local geology. Chemical denudation rates determined for the study period are more than double those previously reported in the literature for this valley. Rates of greater than 46t km⁻² a⁻¹ were measured at the valley mouth over the course of the melt season. This difference is likely due to differences in measurement technique compared to that used by past researchers. This rate is also much higher than for other arctic and alpine watersheds. Chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is comparable to larger temperate rivers. The rapid chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is likely due to sulfide weathering creating acid solutions.     

Enigmatic Efflorescence in Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland: The Key to Chemical Weathering?

The second marvel to catch the eye of the visitor to Kärkevagge, after the impressive boulder deposit on the floor of the valley, is the series of prominent white stripes running down the valley's dark cliffs. Streams and springs descending the eastern flank of Kärkevagge are marked by the presence of whitish coatings on the black rock surfaces and on cobbles lining ephemeral waterways. These were referred to as 'lime crusts' by early investigators, but they are not reactive to HCl. We believe that they are a precipitate resulting from acid attack on the local rocks. Pyrite is common in many of the rocks in the valley and its oxidation produces sulfuric acid. As the dissolved mineral elements are carried in the drainage water, efflorescence forms on the surfaces where the water flows due to evaporation or to changes in temperature. The exact mineralogy of the white crusts is unknown, but the crusts are dominated by Al, S, and O, and in some cases by Ca, depending on the substrate and local conditions. Gypsum, illite, and chlorite have been identified by X–ray diffraction of some scrapings of white–coated rocks. However, we believe that some unidentified oxy–hydroxy aluminum sulfates make up the bulk of the precipitates.     

Column Amounts of ClONO2, HCl, HNO3, and HF from Ground-Based FTIR Measurements Made Near Kiruna, Sweden, in Late Winter 1994

During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO₂, HCl, HF, HNO₃,O₃, N₂O, CH₄, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO₂and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 10¹⁵molec. cm^-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO₂ decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO₂ changed during that winter andClONO₂ is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95.     

Groundwater vulnerability mapping: A GIS and fuzzy rule based integrated tool

Contamination of groundwater has become a major concern in recent years. Since testing of water quality of all domestic and irrigation wells within large watersheds is not economically feasible, one frequently used monitoring strategy is to develop contamination potential maps of groundwater, and then prioritize those wells located in the potentially highly contaminated areas for testing of contaminants. However, generation of contamination potential maps based on groundwater sensitivity and vulnerability is not an easy task due inherent uncertainty. Therefore, the overall goal of this research is to improve the methodology for the generation of contamination potential maps by using detailed landuse/pesticide and soil structure information in conjunction with selected parameters from the DRASTIC model. The specific objectives of this study are (i) to incorporate GIS, GPS, remote sensing and the fuzzy rule-based model to generate groundwater sensitivity maps, and (ii) compare the results of our new methodologies with the modified DRASTIC Index (DI) and field water quality data. In this study, three different models were developed (viz. DI_fuzz, VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped}) and were compared to the DI. Once the preliminary fuzzy logic-based (DI_fuzz) was generated using selected parameters from DI, the methodology was further refined through VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped} models that incorporated landuse/pesticide application and soil structure information, respectively. This study was conducted in Woodruff County of the Mississippi Delta region of Arkansas. Water quality data for 55 wells were used to evaluate the contamination potential maps. The sensitivity map generated by VI_{fuzz_ped} with soil structure showed significantly better coincidence results when compared with the field data.     

A catalogue of major and trace element data for Icelandic Holocene silicic tephra layers

Tephra layers with Icelandic provenance have been identified across the North Atlantic region in terrestrial, lacustrine, marine and glacial environments. These tephra layers are used as marker horizons in tephrochronology including climate studies, archaeology and environmental change. The major element chemistries of 19 proximally deposited Holocene Icelandic silicic tephra layers confirm that individual volcanic systems have unique geochemical signatures and that eruptions from the same system can often be distinguished. In addition, glass trace element chemistry highlights subtle geochemical variations between tephra layers which appear to have identical major element chemistry and thus allows for the identification of some, if not all, tephra layers previously considered identical in composition. This paper catalogues the compositional variation between the widespread Holocene Icelandic silicic tephra deposits.