基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Ontogeny of the lymphoid organs of Japanese flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus

Histological study on the ontogeny of the lymphoid organs, kidney, thymus and spleen of Japanese flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus, from hatching to 40 d was carried out. The pronephric kidney duct appeared early in hatching although the primordial haemopoietic stem cells were observed within a week after hatching. The spleen was first seen after 8d of hatching. The thymus appeared after 15d, situated near the pronephric kidney. Small lymphoid cells appeared during the later phase of the post-larval stage in the sequence of thymus, kidney and spleen. During the 40d of observations, there were no distinct inner or outer zones in thymus and no red or white pulp in spleen. These results suggest that the nonspecific defense immune system plays a very important role in the early larval stage of Japanese flounder.     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

THE EFFECT OF DRAINAGE ON CHEMICALELEMENTS CONTENT OF MARSH

I INTRODUCTIONWetland has very important effect on retainingwater and against drought, regUlating climate, controlling soil erosion and so on ac. Today men often attachimportance to economic effect of wetland reclamation,but neglect and destroy other functions and effectswhich result in blind wetland development, a lot ofwetland degeneration. The area of freshwater wetland inthe 1950s was 134 x 10'ha, but in the 1970s 70% hadchanged into farmland (MITSCH, 1993). The area ofwetland in d…     

INVERSE DDA OF A SYSTEM OF BLOCKS IN SPHERE COORDINATES

1　IntroductionDiscontinuousDeformationAnalysis(DDA)developedbyShiin 1 980’s[1 ,2 ] maybeusedtocalculatethedeformationanddisplacementsinamulti blocksystemandtoanalyzetherelationbe tweenforcesanddisplacementsinthesystem .Ifthesurveydisplacementofeverypointordirectionisknown,alldisplacementsanddeformationsofblocks,eventheglide ,theclosureandthestretchoftheboundary planeofblocks ,canbecalculated .TheresultisoptimallyfittedaccordingtotheLeastSquarePrinciple.DDAismainlyusedinrockblockssystems…     

Reference models of sunspot chromospheres

Recent observational and theoretical studies of the structure of umbral chromosphres have led us to propose new models of the region. We combine space and ground based determinations of the densitytemperature structure of the transition region with existing Caii H, K, and IR triplet spectral data to establish relatively high density, gradient models of the sunspot chromosphere.Avrett in 1981 presented theSunspot Sunspot Model which can be characterized as a physically extended, low density, plateau model. However, in a similar study, the authors (Beebeet al., 1982) pointed out that the relatively high transition region pressures derived from space observations indeed are required to reproduce high resolution Caii spectral features. Studies of the umbral chromosphere as a resonant cavity for slow-mode magneto-acoustic waves producing umbral oscillations (Zhugzhdaet al., 1984) also lead to atmospheres of relatively small physical thickness, thus higher densities.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

冈底斯驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩浆侵位中心和矿化中心:破裂裂隙和矿化强度证据

驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床是迄今为止在西藏冈底斯成矿带上发现的规模最大的铜矿床.文章根据对驱龙矿区各类岩石破裂裂隙的野外实测数据,结合矿区已有钻孔品位资料,分别绘制了矿区地表破裂裂隙等值线图、走向投影图及梅花图、钻孔5 000 m海拔标高水平切面Cu、Mo品位等值线图.研究结果表明,驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩石中破裂裂隙相当发育,连成一片,没有明显的多个高值中心,空间上破裂裂隙呈放射状产出;5 000 m海拔标高水平切面显示Cu、Mo矿化较强、较均匀,矿化呈面状,为典型的由单一斑岩体侵位造成的中心式矿化特征.据破裂裂隙和Cu、Mo矿化空间分布,可确定驱龙矿区岩浆中心和矿化中心均位于钻孔405、1205、801、809所围成的矩形区域附近.     

两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料, 通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化, 在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算, 并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制. 研究结果表明: 在黑河流域, 气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量, 决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征, 以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.