基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

流星暴的航天定义

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．     

Paleoproterozoic Extensional Structure and Its Controlling on Mineralization in the East of Liaoning Province

IntroductionThe area of eastern Liaoning is an importantmetal and nonmetal metallogenetic district in China,and the Liaohe group is one of the most importantstrata that hosts Pb, Zn, Au, B and Mg etcstratabound deposits. Up to now many geo1ogistssuch as Z…     

第一代恒星的观测和研究进展

第一代恒星（星族Ⅲ恒星）标志着宇宙从暗物质时代到现在已知的宇宙的转折点。目前对第一代恒星（星族Ⅲ恒星）的观测结果表明，在银河系中还没有发现零金属丰度的恒星，金属丰度[Fe/H]≤-2.5的恒星极少。由于近几年的BPS巡天，银河系中已知的极端贫金属丰度的恒星数目大大增多。目前，可探测到的极端贫金属星的金属丰度[Fe/H]最低约为－4．1。金属丰度在－4到－3之间的恒星大约有100多颗，这些恒星的运动学特性非常类似于其它晕星。然而还没有发现第一代恒星，或金属丰度[Fe/H]≤-5的恒星。关于第一代恒星的形成过程、初始质量函数以及存在于银河系的什么地方，都还没有任何直接的证据。但第一代恒星确实存在。第一代恒星这个谜一般的实体，向观测和理论天文学家提出了巨大挑战。为探测和预言银河系中的第一代恒星，天文学家提出了许多观测方案和理论模型。对有关第一代恒星在观测和理论研究上的进展进行了综述。     

中华乌塘鳢个体生殖力的研究

研究了湛江沿海中华乌塘鳢个体生殖力及其与生物学指标的关系。结果表明 :个体绝对生殖力为 840 0～ 3 3 2 70粒 ,个体相对生殖力FL 为 5 67 6～ 1 83 3 2粒 /cm ,Fw为 1 5 5 6～ 482 7粒 /g ;个体绝对生殖力与体长、体重、空壳重、卵巢重呈直线相关 ,与年龄呈二次函数相关 ,与成熟系数和肥满度相关关系不显著 ;个体相对生殖力FL 与各生物学指标正相关 ,Fw除了与卵巢重、肥满度和年龄相关关系不显著外 ,其余均显著相关     

Neutrino mass,luminosity variation,and spectrum of SN1987A

In this paper, the neutrino mass has been determined from SN1987a observation in a manner that the simultaneity of neutrino emission is not regarded as the starting point, but is itself defined through the analysis by Monte-Carlo simulation. The result is that the neutrino mass lies in 3–4 eV, possiblym _v 3.6 eV. Neutrino luminosity variation and neutrino spectrum are also obtained. Comparison with theories gives further support to the mass determination, and also predicts the mass of progenitor star of SN1987a to be in the range of 12–25M .The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

新疆阿尔泰蒙库铁矿床的成矿流体及成矿作用

蒙库大型铁矿床赋存于上志留统—下泥盆统康布铁堡组变质火山-沉积岩系中,容矿岩石为石榴子石矽卡岩、变粒岩、浅粒岩和大理岩。矿体总体顺层分布,空间上与矽卡岩密切相关。研究表明,矽卡岩期石榴子石以发育玻璃质熔融包裹体、流体熔融包裹体和流体包裹体为特征,晚期矽卡岩阶段矿物中发育液相包裹体,变质期矿物中主要发育液相包裹体和含子矿物包裹体。矽卡岩期熔融包裹体的均一温度为1100℃,早期矽卡岩阶段流体包裹体均一温度变化于193～499℃,在450℃、350℃和230℃出现峰值。中期矽卡岩阶段均一温度变化于236～550℃,峰值为350℃。区域变质期均一温度介于132～513℃,在350℃、230℃和190℃出现峰值。流体包裹体的盐度w(NaCleq)介于1.23%～60.31%,流体密度变化于0.60～1.16g/cm3。石榴子石、石英和方解石的δ18OSMOW变化于0.2‰～8.4‰,δ18OH2O介于-5.1‰～5.33‰,δD为-127‰～-81‰,表明矽卡岩期成矿流体主要是岩浆水,混合少量大气降水;变质期流体主要为大气降水,为混合变质水。方解石δ13CPDB变化于-6.1‰～-2.3‰,表明流体中碳来自深部或地幔。成矿时代为早泥盆世早期(略晚于404～400Ma),成矿作用与矽卡岩的退化变质作用有关。