中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应

1998-2012年出现的全球变暖停滞（global warming hiatus）现象,近年来受到各界的广泛关注。基于中国622个气象站的气温数据,研究了全国及三大自然区气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应。结果表明：① 1998-2012年间,中国气温变化率为-0.221 ℃/10 a,较1960-1998年增温率下降0.427 ℃/10 a,存在同全球变暖停滞类似的增温减缓现象,且减缓程度更明显,其中冬季对中国增温减缓的贡献最大,贡献率为74.13%,夏季最小;② 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应存在显著的区域差异,从不同自然区看,1998-2012年东部季风区和西北干旱区降温显著,其中东部季风区为中国最强降温区,为全国增温减缓贡献了53.79%,并且具有显著的季节依赖性,减缓期冬季气温下降了0.896 ℃/10 a,而夏季上升了0.134 ℃/10 a。青藏高寒区1998-2012年增温率达0.204 ℃/10 a,对全球变暖停滞的响应并不显著;③ 中国增温减缓可能受太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）负相位、太阳黑子数与太阳总辐照减小等因素的影响;④ 1998-2012年中国虽出现增温减缓现象,但2012年之后气温快速升高,且从周期变化看,未来几年可能持续升温。     

Changes in air temperature over China in response to the recent global warming hiatus

The 1998-2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed -0.221℃/10a during 1998-2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960-1998 by 0.427℃/10a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10a in winter and 0.134℃/10a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.     

基于氢氧稳定同位素的兰州市南北两山土壤蒸发时空变化及影响因素研究

基于2018年4—10月在兰州市南北两山采集的降水、河水及土壤样品,对不同水体中的氢氧稳定同位素进行测定,并应用Craig-Gordon模型分析了南北两山土壤蒸发的时空变化及其成因。结果表明：① 兰州市局地大气水线LMWL斜率相比全球大气水线GMWL较小,主要是相对湿度小,雨滴在下落过程中受到云下二次蒸发的影响。由表层0~10 cm至深层60~120 cm,土壤水δ²H和δ¹⁸O逐渐贫化,土壤水线SWL的斜率均呈现规律性增大,说明表层土壤受到的蒸发分馏最为强烈,随着土壤深度的增加,蒸发分馏逐渐减弱。② 时间变化上,局地蒸发线斜率S_LEL在4月较大,土壤蒸发较小,4—6月减小,土壤蒸发增大,6—8月趋于稳定,其中7月土壤蒸发最为强烈,自8月S_LEL增大,土壤蒸发开始减小,一直减小至10月。③ 空间变化上,北山相比南山蒸发损失量f更为强烈,主要原因是北山气温、相对湿度和土壤含水量均高于南山。④ 2018年4—10月,各采样点蒸发损失量f达到峰值和谷值的时间相比降水δ ¹⁸O均存在明显的滞后,主要原因是降水在土壤基质入渗过程中存在滞留。