Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

An analytical model for the HF backscattered Doppler spectrum for the ocean surface

An analysis previously developed for rough surface scattering with narrow-beam reception is extended to wide-beam or omnidirectional reception. The source is considered to be a pulsed electric dipole. The analysis includes multipathing effects on the received signal. The results are used to develop a model for the backscattered radar cross section of the ocean surface, up to a second-order approximation.     

Mid-infrared observations of methanol maser sites and ultracompact H ii regions: signposts of high-mass star formation

N -band (10.5 μm) and/or Q -band (20.0 μm) images taken with MANIAC on the ESO/MPI 2.2-m telescope are presented for 31 methanol maser sites and 19 ultracompact (UC) H  ii regions. Most of the maser sites and UC H  ii regions are coincident with mid-infrared (MIR) sources to within the positional uncertainties of ∼ 3 arcsec, consistent with the maser emission being powered by the MIR source. The IRAS source positions, however, do not always coincide with the MIR sources.
Based on an average infrared spectral energy distribution, we deduce that the MIR objects are luminous enough that they should also produce a strong ionizing radiation. Some sources are consistent with stars of later spectral type, but not all can be. A number of maser sites show no detectable radio continuum emission associated with MIR emission, despite a powering source luminous enough potentially to produce an UC H  ii region. Since no signs of an UC H  ii region are detected here, these maser sites might be produced during a very early stage of stellar evolution.
We present objects that show evidence of outflow activity stemming from a maser site, exhibiting CO and/or CS line profiles indicative of outflows coincident with the MIR source. These cases are promising examples of maser sites signposting the earliest stages of high-mass star formation.     

CO2 cycling in the coastal ocean. I – A numerical analysis of the southeastern Bering Sea with applications to the Chukchi Sea and the northern Gulf of Mexico

A quasi-two dimensional model of the carbon and nitrogen cycling above the 70m isobath of the southeastern Bering Sea at 57°N replicates the observed seasonal cycles of nitrate, ammonium, ΣCO₂, pCO₂, light penetration, chlorophyll, phytoplankton growth rate, and primary production, as constrained by changes in wind, incident radiation, temperature, ice cover, vertical and lateral mixing, grazing stress, benthic processing of phytodetritus and zooplankton fecal pellets, and the pelagic microbial loop of DOC, bacteria, and their predators. About half of the seasonal resupply of nitrate stocks to their initial winter conditions is derived from in situ nitrification, with the rest obtained from deep-sea influxes. Under the present conditions of atmospheric forcing, shelf-break exchange, and food web structure, this shelf ecosystem serves as a sink for atmospheric CO₂, with storage in the forms of exported DOC, DIC, and unutilized POC (phytoplankton, bacteria, and fecal pellets).As a consequence of just the rising levels of atmospheric pCO₂ since the the Industrial Revolution, however, the biophysical CO₂ status of the Southeastern Bering Sea shelf may have switched over the last 250 years, from a prior source to the present sink, since this relatively pristine ecosystem has unergone little eutrophication. Such fluctuations of CO₂ status may thus be reversed by the physical processes of : (1) reduction of atmospheric pCO₂, (2) increased on welling of deep-sea ΣCO₂, and (3) warming of shelf waters. Based on our application of this model to the Chukchi Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, about 1.0–1.2 gigatons C y^-1 of atmospheric CO₂ may now be sequestered by temperate and polar shelf ecosystems. When tropical systems are included, however, a positive net sink of only 0.6–0.8. × 10¹⁵g C y⁻¹ may prevail over all shelves.     

'Dad says I'm tied to a shooting star!' Grounding (research on) British expatriate belonging

This paper analyses one British woman's everyday practices of belonging as she negotiates expatriate life in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. In doing so, it responds to widespread calls to ground research on processes of transnationalism and diaspora by drawing on 18 months of ethnographic research and adopting a three-stranded analytical framework to reflect on the significance of domesticity, intimacy and foreignness in expatriate belonging. The author focuses on a single research subject to draw attention to a particular British expatriate experience otherwise neglected in migration research and the paper resonates with theoretical literatures aiming to challenge the binary divisions of geographies of belonging, including attachment/detachment.     

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.