A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.     

北吕宋岛菲律宾活动带蛇绿岩及其上覆浊积岩的放射虫研究新进展

The basement of the Philippine Mobile Belt (PMB) is mainly composed of ophiolites that are mostly overlain by Paleogene to Miocene turbidites in central Luzon. To clarify the geological development of the PMB with respect to the initial stage of the arc volcanism (eg. Yumul et al., 2003, 2008; Dimalanta and Yumul, 2003; Suzuki et al., 2011), radiolarian dating was examined in siliceous sediments associated with the ophiolites and turbidites. The samples were collected from sites identified with the Zambales and Montalban ophiolites, basic tuff phyllites in NW Din-galan, and their overlying formations.     

Assessment of liquefaction potential based on peak ground motion parameters

Conventionally, evaluation of liquefaction potential of loose saturated cohesionless deposits as specified in Japanese design codes employs peak ground acceleration (PGA). However, recent large-scale earthquakes in Japan revealed that liquefaction at some sites did not occur even though large PGAs were recorded at or near these sites. As an alternative approach, an evaluation procedure based on peak ground motion parameters, i.e. incorporating both PGA and the peak ground velocity (PGV), is proposed. By performing parametric studies using one-dimensional seismic response analysis and formulating regression models, seismic-induced shear stresses within the deposit are expressed in terms of peak ground motion parameters at the surface, and these are used to calculate the factor of safety against liquefaction. Application to case histories in Japan indicates that the proposed two-parameter equation can adequately account for the occurrence and non-occurrence of liquefaction at various sites as compared to the conventional PGA-based approach. Moreover, analyses of several strong motion records at various sites show that liquefaction may occur when PGA≥150 gal and PGV≥20 kine, indicating that these values can serve as thresholds in assessing the possible occurrence of liquefaction.     

Modeling the onset of photosynthesis after the Chicxulub asteroid impact

We do a preliminary modelling of the photosynthetic rates of phytoplankton at the very beginning of the Paleogene, just after the impact of the Chicxulub asteroid, which decisively contributed to the last known mass extinction of the Phanerozoic eon. We assume the worst possible scenario from the photobiological point of view: an already clear atmosphere with no ozone, as the timescale for soot and dust settling (years) is smaller than that of the full ozone regeneration (decades). Even in these conditions we show that most phytoplankton species would have had reasonable potential for photosynthesis in all the three main optical ocean water types. This modelling could help explain why the recovery of phytoplankton was relatively rapid after the huge environmental stress of that asteroid impact. In a more general scope, it also reminds us of the great resilience of the unicellular biosphere against huge environmental perturbations.     

Wavelet analyses of neural networks based river discharge decomposition

The problem of discharge forecasting using precipitation as input is still very active in Hydrology, and has a plethora of approaches to its solution. But, when the objective is to simulate discharge values without considering the phenomenology behind the processes involved, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN give good results. However, the question of how the black box internally solve this problem remains open. In this research, the classical rainfall-runoff problem is approached considering that the total discharge is a sum of components of the hydrological system, which from the ANN perspective is translated to the sum of three signals related to the fast, middle and slow flow. Thus, the present study has two aims (a) to study the time-frequency representation of discharge by an ANN hydrologic model and (b) to study the capabilities of ANN to additively decompose total river discharge. This study adds knowledge to the open problem of the physical interpretability of black-box models, which remains very limited. The results show that total discharge is adequately simulated in the time frequency domain, although less power spectrum is evident during the rainy seasons in the ANN model, due to fast flow underestimation. The wavelet spectrum of discharge represents well the slow, middle and fast flow components of the system with transit times of 256, 12–64 and 2–12 days, respectively. Interestingly, these transit times are remarkably similar to those of the soil water reservoirs of the studied system, a small headwater catchment in the tropical Andes. This result needs further research because it opens the possibility of determining MMT on a fraction of the cost of isotopic based methods. The cross-power spectrum indicates that the error in the simulated discharge is more related to the misrepresentation of the fast and the middle flow components, despite limitations in the recharge period of the slow flow component. With respect to the representation of individual signals of the slow, middle and fast flows components, the three neurons were uncapable to individually represent such flows. However, the combination of pairs of these signals resemble the dynamics and the spectral content of the aforementioned flows signals. These results show some evidence that signal processing techniques may be used to infer information about the hydrological functioning of a basin.     

Seasonal Variability in Circulation Pattern and Residence Time of Suo-Nada

The development and evolution of the persistent counterclockwise circulation in Suo-Nada have been studied in detail using a three-dimensional numerical model. The realistic circulation has been reproduced from the monthly climatological fields of salinity, temperature along the open boundary, wind, heat flux and buoyancy input from twenty-two major rivers surrounding the basin. The seasonal variation of fresh-water discharge from the rivers proved to be the most important forcing mechanism driving the circulation. The expansion and contraction of coastal low salinity water well corresponded with the development of counterclockwise circulation from spring to summer and dissipation from autumn to winter. The circulation was found to be vertically homogenous and quasi-barotropic. However, confined along the coastal zone is an estuarine flow (i.e., oppositely directed currents in the upper and lower layers) whose horizontal dimension conforms to the period of maximum buoyancy flux from the rivers. This indicates that the flow pattern in Suo-Nada can be separated into two distinct regions where the relative dominance of estuarine circulation plays a significant role. Furthermore, the monthly water exchange capacity for autonomous purification of the basin has been evaluated from the average residence time of conservative material based on the calculated current field. It is demonstrated that the kinetic energy of the basin is directly responsible in promoting water exchange in Suo-Nada. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Circulation and Material Transport in Suo-Nada during Spring and Summer

An attempt was made to reproduce the circulation pattern in Suo-Nada, Japan during spring and summer season in order to elucidate the water exchange mechanism in the basin. Two hydrographic surveys at the end of each season were conducted covering the entire Suo-Nada area. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was used to compute the current resulting from the observed density and wind field. During spring, a very pronounced counter clockwise gyre is situated near the opening of the basin. This is replaced by a clockwise circulation which seemed to occupy the whole domain during summer. Within each season, however, the vertical distribution of current does not show any remarkable differences, indicating the dominance of horizontal current and a very weak estuarine flow. These observational and numerical results were used to estimate the remnant function and the corresponding average residence time of permanently dissolved matter (PDM) and transformable matter (TM). The results revealed a small difference in the average residence times of materials within each season but a large seasonal variability between spring and summer. Furthermore, calculations based on climatological density fields have indicated a similar trend of variation between the seasonal values of average residence times. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Space–time rainfall variability in the Paute basin,Ecuadorian Andes

Despite the importance of mountain ranges as water providers, knowledge of their climate variability is still limited, mostly due to a combination of data scarcity and heterogeneous orography. The tropical Andes share many of the main features of mountain ranges in general, and are subject to several climatic influences that have an effect on rainfall variability. Although studies have addressed the large-scale variation, the basin scale has received little attention. Thus, the purpose of this study was to obtain a better understanding of rainfall variability in the tropical Andes at the basin scal, utilizing the Paute River basin of southern Ecuador as a case study. Analysis of 23 rainfall stations revealed a high spatial variability in terms of: (i) large variations of mean annual precipitation in the range 660–3400 mm; (ii) the presence of a non-monotonic relation between annual precipitation and elevation; and (iii) the existence of four, sometimes contrasting, rainfall regimes. Data from seven stations for the period 1964–1998 was used to study seasonality and trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. Seasonality is less pronounced at higher elevations, confirming that in the páramo region, the main water source for Andean basins, rainfall is well distributed year round. Additionally, during the period of record, no station has experienced extreme concentrations of annual rainfall during the wet season, which supports the concept of mountains as reliable water providers. Although no regional or basin-wide trends are found for annual precipitation, positive (negative) trends during the wet (dry) season found at four stations raises the likelihood of both water shortages and the risk of precipitation-triggered disasters. The study demonstrates how variable the precipitation patterns of the Andean mountain range are, and illustrates the need for improved monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.