中国降水对印度洋海温3—4年周期振荡的响应

用３０年（１９６０～１９８９年）季平均印度洋海温距平资料和中国降水距平资料进行主振荡型分析和伴随相关分析，研究了印度洋海温３～４年时间尺度的主振荡型的时间演变及其对中国降水影响的循环过程，结果表明中国降水低频场的主要响应区域在华中，西南地区以及华北北部一带，它体现了印度洋地区热源异常通过大气内部动力过程激发的低频流型对中国降水年际变化的影响。     

不同水温对文昌鱼性腺发育的影响

研究表明，不同水温对文昌鱼性腺发育分化和成熟有十分显著的影响。１４℃对文昌鱼性腺发育没有显著的作用，２０和２５℃十分有利于性腺发育和成熟，经４０ｄ培养，出现一些雌、雄文昌鱼产卵和释精以及加速性腺发育。本文还讨论了水温促进性腺发育可能的机制。     

Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.     

Fractal and Multifractal Modeling of Hydrothermal Mineral Deposit Spectrum： Application to Gold Deposits in Abitibi Area, Ontario, Canada

A number of fractal/multifractal methods are introduced for quantifying the mineral de-lmsit spectrum which include a number-size, grade-tonnage model, power spectrmn model,multi-fractal model and an eigeavalue spectrmn model The first two models characterize mineral deposits spec-tra based on relationships among the measures of mineral deposits.These include the number of deposits,size of deposits,concentration and volume of mineral deposits.The last three methods that deal with the spatial-temporal spectra of mineral deposit studies are all expected to be popularized in near future.A case study of hydrothermal gold deposits from the Abitibi area,a world-class mineral district is used to demonstrate the principle as well as the applications of methods proposed in this paper,It has been shown that fractal and multifractal models are generally applicable to modeling of mineral deposits and occurrences.Clusters of mineral deposits were identified by several methods including the power spectral eral deposits in the Timmins and Kirkland Lake camps.     

Discrete multifractals

The concept of multifractal modeling has been used intensively in various fields of science for characterizing measures with self- similarity. It has been shown that multifractal modeling provides powerful tools for characterizing patterns in the spatial distribution of geological quantities and objects. Existing multifractal models were proposed for the purpose of handling spatially intertwined fractals with continuous fractal spectrum f(α) (or continuous codimension function C(γ)). In this paper, these conventional multifractals are termed “continuous multifractals” whereas multifractals with discrete fractal dimensions are termed “discrete multifractals.” The properties of discrete multifractals are investigated. It is shown by various artificial examples and a case study of stratigraphy of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 645 that spatially intertwined fractals/multifractals indeed can have discrete fractal dimensions. Histogram-and moment-based techniques are proposed for discrete multifractal modeling and illustrated using the artificial examples. The new concept of discrete multifractals and associated multifractal modeling yields not only techniques for characterizing multifractals with discrete fractal dimensions but it also provides insight into the relationships between fractals, bifractals, and multifractals.     

Multifractal modeling and spatial statistics

In general, the multifractal model provides more information about measurements on spatial objects than a fractal model. It also results in mathematical equations for the covariance function and semivariogram in spatial statistics which are determined primarily by the second-order mass exponent. However, these equations can be approximated by power-law relations which are comparable directly to equations based on fractal modeling. The multifractal approach is used to describe the underlying spatial structure of De Wijs 's example of zinc values from a sphalerite-bearing quartz vein near Pulacayo, Bolivia. It is shown that these data are multifractal instead of fractal, and that the second-order mass exponent (=0.979±0.011 for the example) can be used in spatial statistical analysis.     

A New Model for Quantifying Anisotropic Scale Invariance and for Decomposition of Mixing Patterns

A new power–law function has been derived to represent the relationship between area of the set consisting of wave numbers with spectral energy density above S (A(>S)) on the two-dimensional frequency plane and S. The power–law relation holds if the field concerned possessing isotropic scale invariance or generalized scaling invariance involves rotational and ratio-scale changing transforms. The equation is valid for dealing with common exploration geophysical and geochemical fields encountered in mineral exploration and environmental assessment. This power–law function not only provides a new model for characterizing anisotropic scaling invariance for generalized scaling field, for example, estimating the power exponent of power spectrum of generalized scale invariance measure in frequency domain, but also forms a theoretical base for the S–A filtering technique developed for decomposing a mixing field into components on the basis of distinct scaling properties in the frequency domain. It is demonstrated that the method has potential to become a general technique for image processing and pattern recognition.     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.     

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

机器学习与成矿预测:以闽西南铁多金属矿预测为例

作为近年来爆炸式发展的方法模型,机器学习为地质找矿提供了新的思维和研究方法。本文探讨矿产预测研究的理论方法体系,总结机器学习在矿产预测领域的特征信息提取和信息综合集成两个方面的应用现状,并讨论机器学习在矿产资源定量预测领域面临的训练样本稀少且不均衡、模型训练中缺乏不确定性评估、缺少反哺研究、方法选择等困难和挑战。进一步以闽西南马坑式铁矿为实例论述基于机器学习方法的矿产预测基本流程:(1)通过成矿系统研究建立成矿模型,确定矿床控矿要素;(2)通过勘查系统研究建立找矿模型,并为评价预测提供相关的勘查数据;(3)通过预测评价系统研究,建立预测模型,并提取预测要素;(4)利用机器学习模型对预测要素进行信息综合集成,获取成矿有利度图;(5)对预测性能和结果进行不确定性评估;(6)找矿靶区/成矿远景区圈定及资源量估算。最后,总结建立以地学大数据和地球系统理论为指导,以“地球系统-成矿系统-勘查系统-预测评价系统”为研究路线的基于地学大数据的矿产资源定量预测理论和方法体系的研究愿景。