Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands,Africa

Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from two major river basins are assessed in this work.     

西班牙的房地产泡沫:城市化与城市建设

聚焦于西班牙1996-2007年间的房地产泡沫,此次危机与西班牙前两次经历的地产泡沫有着相似的背景条件：将住房建设作为利好投机性投资。但几次泡沫供给结构却不同：此次住房供给主要为分散式,不同于以往的集中供应;旅游地产大量出现;房屋拥有型社会形成。作者认为供给结构的改变并非危机的主要原因,并提出了造成房地产泡沫的四个关键要素：符合一定条件的土地、土地规划的配合、充足的资金与可获得的土地所有权。结论是：政策的制定直接影响土地利用、发展规划、金融系统与个人资产、造成住房由使用品变为投机投资的对象、银行体系信用缺乏保障,最终导致了住房库存量陡增,大量房屋拆除事件与失业率攀升等经济和社会方面的不良影响。     

Measurement of air-fluorescence-light yield induced by an electromagnetic shower

For most of the ultra-high-energy cosmic ray (UHECR) experiments and projects (HiRes, AUGER, TA, JEM-EUSO, TUS, …), the detection technique of extensive air showers is based, at least, on the measurement of the air-fluorescence-induced signal. The knowledge of the fluorescence-light yield (FLY) is of paramount importance for the UHECR energy reconstruction. The MACFLY experiment was designed to perform absolute measurements of the air FLY and to study its properties. Here, we report the result of measurement of dry-air FLY induced by 50 GeV electromagnetic showers as a function of the shower age and as a function of the pressure. The experiment was performed at CERN using a SPS-electron-test-beam line. The result shows the air FLY is proportional to the energy deposited in air (E_d). The ratio FLY/E_d and its pressure dependence remain constant independently of shower age, and more generally, independently of the excitation source used (single-electron track or air shower).     

Holocene and Pleistocene sea-level indicators at the coast of Jericoacoara,Ceará, NE Brazil

Beach-rock exposures provide a record of Holocene sea-level rise along the 560-km-long northeast-facing coast of Ceará, Brazil, that differs from the record available along the other 4300 km of Brazilian coastline further south. Whereas documentation is available from southern Brazil to show Holocene sea levels as much as 5 m above today's level, our observations along the northeastern coast indicate that sea level here was not above the present-day level during the Holocene. Near Jericoacoara, about 240 km northwest of Fortaleza, characterized by strong surf, Precambrian rocks crop out from under a temporary cover of sand in small protected locations with less surf. Here in this upper tidal zone beach rock is being formed, while it is being dismembered synchronously by erosion at lower tide levels. This shows a rising sea level. Along the entire coast of Ceará west of Ponta Grossa the absence of beach rock higher than spring tide level indicates that sea-level was not above its present-day level during the Holocene.Notches in bedrock situated between 2 m and 6 m above spring-tide high-water level that we formerly described as Holocene, are now believed to be Sangamonian.     

Geochemical modeling and low-frequency geoelectrical methods to evaluate the impact of an open dump in arid and deltaic environments

In Mexico, open dumps that are maintained by the municipality but provide no covering of waste are not uncommon. Further, disposal at these sites is often performed by burning. The aim of this study was to determine the leachate plume from an open dump located in a depositional deltaic environment, with arid climate, low rainfall and where the water table is about 2 m below the surface. The methodology comprised analysis of groundwater monitoring wells and geophysical and geochemical prospecting techniques. The 3D geoelectric interpretation shows a typical area of these depositional environments with low resistive values (10–20 Ω-m) associated with the presence of sands and clays interbedded. However, there is a very low resistivity zone associated with the dump’s impact which reaches values below 5 Ω-m, and it is located where the disposal and burning of wastes occurred. Another zone with values above 16 Ω-m appears as a limit for the advance of the saline. This is interpreted as a sandy lenses area. These sandy lenses with higher porosity transport aquifer’s water. Thus the dump is in direct contact by this conduct with clean groundwater. Piper diagrams constructed with the chemical data analysis reveal that the groundwater in the area corresponds to the chlorinated and/or sulfated sodium type, showing the impact caused by the dump. The monitoring well (NP8, on-site) with the highest dissolved solids content behaves anomalously and belongs to the more conductive zone according to the geoelectric profiles. The subsoil geochemical behavior is influenced by the seasonal water table variations provoking the dissolution of burned and unburned wastes, but the effects of slow flows in the direction of the regional flow are not discarded. Although the most impacted area within the dump is characterized to a depth of 10 m, there is a slow flow in the direction of the regional flow that has been moving pollutants out of the dumpsite during its almost 20 years of operation. The results of this study provide valuable information for the authorities to carry out an appropriate restoration project.