黄河源地区草地退化空间特征

利用黄河源地区1985年和2000年1：100000土地利用／覆被数据，结合1：250000DEM、道路和居民点数据与野外调查资料，分析草地退化与坡向、海拔及距道路和居民点距离之间的关系．探讨黄河源区15年间土地覆被变化特征与规律。结果表明，退化草地占源区总面积的8．24％，冬春季牧场退化率显著高于夏季牧场：草地退化是黄河源区研究时段内土地利用／覆被变化最主要的特征。草地退化表现为：①阳坡退化率高于阴坡；②受人口密度影响，草地退化率与海拔高度成反比，相关系数为．0．925；③距离居民点越近。退化率越高。尤其当与居民点距离≤12km时，草地退化率与其相关系数高达-0．996；④在距道路4km以内．草地退化率与道路距离成反比．相关系数高达-0．978。1985年以来，源区的草地退化有自然因素的影响．但人类活动的影响仍起主导作用。科学地减少当地居民对草地的过分依赖是解决脆弱的江河源区环境退化的根本。     

高原交通干线对土地利用和景观格局的影响——以兰州至格尔木段为例

运用景观生态学方法和Arc/Info软件，研究1995年至2000年兰州至格尔木铁路沿线的区域土地利用和景观格局变化，分析交通干线（公路和铁路）的影响程度与范围。主要结果如下：（1）东线土地利用和景观格局没有发生显著变化，西线土地利用和景观格局变化较大；（2）东线缓冲带土地利用程度综合指数没有显著变化，西线缓冲带土地利用程度综合指数明显升高。缓冲带综合土地利用动态度的变化反映了交通干线的轴向影响规律；兰州至西宁铁路对土地利用变化的显著影响范围是5km，青藏铁路对土地利用变化的显著影响范围是7km；（3）9个城市缓冲带的土地利用变化分析表明：城市扩展主要发生在1km缓冲带内。     

石窟寺文物的数字化保护与利用

随着信息技术的飞速发展,石窟寺文物的数字化保护与利用引起了国内外的广泛关注。文章从石窟寺文物数字化采集、保护和利用等方面进行系统梳理,重点分析石窟寺文物数字化保护中三维信息获取、三维重建评价以及三维打印等相关前沿信息技术的应用现状。并针对石窟寺文物数字化保护和利用工程实践中的难点,给出采用激光脉冲三维采集细部结合多视图重建采集整体形状的三维重建结合三维打印的解决方案。同时,针对摄影测量计算过程中可能出现的整体形状偏差,采用脉冲式激光三维扫描仪在石窟中进行整体扫描来建立石窟三维形状的框架,以对多视图重建计算中的空间解算误差进行约束。其中,提出了基于关键参数一致化的分布式集中约束调整方法,在保障精确度的同时得到更好的计算效率。然后通过云冈石窟和龙门石窟字化保护和利用的经典案例,具体分析工程实践中的难点,并探讨以上解决方案的可行性。综合考虑成本与效果等多种因素,该方案是当前技术条件下性价比相对较高,同时可以兼顾色彩与质感原真再现的解决思路。最后对未来趋势进行展望并给出相关技术和应用建议。     

基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究

准确可靠的径流预测对于水资源的科学管理与规划具有重要意义,特别是在水资源紧缺的干旱半干旱地区,径流预测对流域内水资源高效利用与水利工程经济运行具有重要现实意义。针对径流预测通常采用单一方法进行建模与预测,难以利用各预测模型优势的问题,本文利用极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等机器学习方法建立了疏勒河上游未来1~7日的径流预测模型。在此基础上,运用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法对ELM、SVM、MARS模型的预测结果进行组合,构建了径流组合预测模型,以获取更可靠的预测结果,并采用蒙特卡洛抽样方法获取BMA的95%置信区间,对预测结果进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：ELM、SVM、MARS模型以及BMA组合模型均适用于干旱半干旱地区的中长期日径流预测;BMA的预测精度较单一模型更高,能够提供更准确的预测值;BMA的95%置信区间对实测值覆盖率高,同时能够提供较好的确定性预测和概率预测结果。表明BMA在资料有限的条件下,表现出较单一模型更高的预测性能,可以成为干旱半干旱地区中长期日径流预测的有效方法。     

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

     

The international conference on mountain development in a context of global change with special focus on the Himalayas was held successfully in Kathmandu,Nepal

正The international conference on mountain development in a context of global change with special focus on the Himalayas was held in Kathmandu,Nepal on April 21-26.Mountain regions are prone to several disasters,such as earthquakes,landslides,floods and avalanches.In recent years,global climate change not only greatly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services,but also threatens directly or indirectly people living in mountain     

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Suitability of Agricultural Land in Myanmar

Myanmar is a country with an economy based on agriculture. It has rich agricultural resources and great potential for development. The development of agriculture in Myanmar is becoming increasingly important to international food security. Assessments of agricultural land resources in Myanmar are the basis for the country’s agricultural development and for food security evaluations. In this paper we used the MaxEnt model to analyze the relationship between the suitability of land for agricultural reclamation and the main environmental variables in Myanmar, and then constructed a model to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. The results show that: 1) the overall accuracy of the MaxEnt model is high (AUC>0.8), which means there is a high correlation between the database of selected environmental indicators and the true distribution of cultivated land in Myanmar. 2) Soil depth is the most important factor affecting the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. When the thickness of soil layer is less than 100 cm, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to topographic conditions, slope is the main factor affecting suitability. When the slope is greater than 20 degrees, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to climate conditions, precipitation is the main influencing factor. There is a positive correlation between river network density and land suitability. 3) Currently, 400 000 km² of the land resources in Myanmar are suitable for agriculture, and of this amount 290 000 km² are highly suitable, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's land area. The highly suitable land is distributed mainly in Magway, Sagaing, Ayeyarwady and Yangon provinces. The provinces are also important grain production areas in Myanmar, and this serves to validate the effectiveness of the method used in this paper.     

Land Cover Status in the Koshi River Basin,Central Himalayas

The Koshi River Basin is in the middle of the Himalayas, a tributary of the Ganges River and a very important cross-border watershed. Across the basin there are large changes in altitude, habitat complexity, ecosystem integrity, land cover diversity and regional difference and this area is sensitive to global climate change. Based on Landsat TM images, vegetation mapping, field investigations and 3S technology, we compiled high-precision land cover data for the Koshi River Basin and analyzed current land cover characteristics. We found that from source to downstream, land cover in the Koshi River Basin in 2010 was composed of water body (glacier), bare land, sparse vegetation, grassland, wetland, shrubland, forest, cropland, water body (river or lake) and built-up areas. Among them, grassland, forest, bare land and cropland are the main types, accounting for 25.83%, 21.19%, 19.31% and 15.09% of the basin’s area respectively. The composition and structure of the Koshi River Basin land cover types are different between southern and northern slopes. The north slope is dominated by grassland, bare land and glacier; forest, bare land and glacier are mainly found on northern slopes. Northern slopes contain nearly seven times more grassland than southern slopes; while 97.13% of forest is located on southern slopes. Grassland area on northern slope is 6.67 times than on southern slope. The vertical distribution of major land cover types has obvious zonal characteristics. Land cover types from low to high altitudes are cropland, forest, Shrubland and mixed cropland, grassland, sparse vegetation, bare land and water bodies. These results provide a scientific basis for the study of land use and cover change in a critical region and will inform ecosystem protection, sustainability and management in this and other alpine transboundary basins.     

基于NPP数据和样区对比法的青藏高原自然保护区保护成效分析

在青藏高原选择11个代表性自然保护区,基于高寒草地植被净初级生产力（Net Primary Production,简写NPP）变化过程数据,比较分析了自然保护区与其相邻等面积区域的NPP变化差异;采用样区对比法,在自然保护区内外选取21组对比样区,比较自然保护区建立前后及其内外的生态状况,评估了自然保护区的保护成效。研究表明：1. 1982-2009年间,82%的代表性自然保护区NPP比保护区周邻区域及青藏高原的平均水平低,反映了自然保护区的生态系统状况更为脆弱;2. 在代表性自然保护区中,曼则塘自然保护区的NPP增长趋势最为明显,塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区的NPP增长趋势最弱;除色林错自然保护区外,以草甸和湿地为主的自然保护区NPP增速明显高于以草原与荒漠草地为主的自然保护区;3. 代表性样区的研究发现：① 自然保护区内76%以上的样区和国家级保护区内82%以上的样区NPP增加幅度明显高于保护区外对应样区的增幅;② 取得明显保护效果的有中昆仑、长沙贡玛、若尔盖和色林错等自然保护区;曼则塘自然保护区的东南部边缘地区和塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区的北部边缘地区的效果不明显,可能与保护区及其周邻地区人类扰动增强密切相关;③ 高寒草甸类型自然保护区的保护效果最为显著,高寒草原类型自然保护区的保护效果较差。本研究展示了样区对比法在评估大区域生态变化中所具有的独特优势,其关键在于科学设计样区并进行合理的空间抽样。     

基于SWAT和遥感方法的黄土台塬区土壤水库均衡——以甘肃省陇东黄土董志塬为例

以甘肃省陇东黄土董志塬为研究区,采用SWAT模型和遥感方法,就黄土台塬区地下水库均衡进行综合研究. 结果表明：黄土台塬区土壤水分负均衡常出现在5、6月份,该期水分亏缺不利于植被的健康稳定生长,是灌溉调节的主要时段. 1981-2010年间,气温升高使陆表蒸散需求增加,降水减少使土壤水库补给减少,二者共同导致台塬区土壤水库负衡态势的加重. 气候变化背景下,积极寻求外调水源是解决黄土台塬区水资源短缺问题的重要手段.