Combined impact of climate change,cultivar shift,and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)^?1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.     

冀中南地区农田生物生产力与碳截获能力时空变化分析

以6期(1985年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年和2008年)土地利用数据和1984~2008年的粮食产量数据为基础,对冀中南地区农田生物生产力和碳截获能力进行了估算,并对其时空差异特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:自20世纪80年以来,冀中南地区农田中生物生产力和碳截获能力表现为增强趋势,总生物量和碳截获总量分别达到0.065 Pg和0.025 Pg。农田的碳截获能力具有空间差异性。山前平原地区农田的生物生产力和碳截获能力均比较大,而在西部山区和东部低平原区表现较低。随着农田生物生产力和碳截获能力的增强,加速了碳循环和碳汇的过程。虽然农田碳截获总量很大,而且只是动态的碳库,但是如果能够合理利用必将增加农田的实际固碳能力。     

氢氧稳定同位素技术在生态系统水分耗散中的应用研究进展

氢氧稳定同位素作为水的"DNA",对于研究水分的传输和转化具有重要的意义,而水分耗散是水循环的重要组成部分。简单介绍氢氧稳定同位素在水分耗散研究中应用的主要原理和比较新的一些技术方法,主要对其在森林、草原生态系统和农田生态系统中蒸散发分离,植物水分来源区分、叶片水同位素富集和水分利用效率等方面做较为详细的归纳总结和探讨,最后指出国内此类研究仍然存在的问题和可能的发展方向,以期对未来氢氧稳定同位素技术在水分循环和水分耗散方面的应用研究有借鉴作用。     

海河流域近50年水文要素变化分析

海河流域水文要素的变化受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响.采用Mann-Kendall检验方法和滑动t检验方法对海河流域近50年水文要素的变化趋势及变异年份进行了分析和讨论.结果表明海河流域整体呈现暖干气候倾向.气温存在显著升高趋势,蒸发皿蒸发量平原区大多存在显著下降趋势,降水量全流域整体呈现不显著减少趋势.气温增温变点大致出现在1988～1992年左右.蒸发皿蒸发量和降水量变化趋势为先减少后增加.减少变点一般出现在70年代末80年代初,增加变点分别出现在1992年左右和1987～1989年左右.经济发展和城市化进程较早的北京气温和蒸发皿蒸发量的变点较为提前.     

黄河上游近60 a径流量与降水量变化特征研究

为探究黄河上游径流量与降水量变化特征,基于唐乃亥、下河沿、头道拐3个水文站近60 a的降水量、径流量资料,采用线性倾向趋势检验、Mann-Kendall检验法（M-K趋势检验）、Spearman秩次相关检验、M-K突变检验、Pettitt非参数检验、有序聚类分析、累积距平法、双累积曲线等分析方法对比研究了黄河上游及上游不同子区域降水量和径流量的变化特征,并讨论了径流量对降水量的响应关系。结果表明：黄河上游降水量呈不显著增加趋势,在2003年发生突变,突变前后变化率为4.67%;径流量呈显著减少趋势,突变年份为1986年,突变前后变化率为35.34%。3个子区域年降水量变化趋势分别呈显著增加、不显著增加和显著减少趋势,径流量均呈减少趋势。以唐乃亥以上的Ⅰ区为基准区时,唐乃亥—下河沿所在的Ⅱ区降水量因素对径流量的影响达到25.08%,非降水量因素为74.92%,而下河沿—头道拐的Ⅲ区,降水量对径流量的影响为32.14%,非降水量因素为67.86%。研究结果对黄河流域水资源综合管理与科学配置具有参考意义。     

新疆气候时空变化特征及其趋势(英文)

Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and R/S methods. The results indicate that: (1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years, but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation; (2) for temperature increase, the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase, though the latitude has greater influence on the increase. Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang, especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang. Ili, which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang, shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general, the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5) Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the current trends.     

海河流域NDVI对气候变化的响应研究

以海河流域为研究区,利用8 km分辨率AVHRR/NDVI数据和气象资料,逐像元对1981-2000年时段的流域NDVI值、年降水量和年均气温的变化率进行分析,计算了NDVI和年降水量、年均气温的相关关系.结果表明,1981-2000年时段内,海河流域年降水量变化总体呈现北部和南部增加,中部减少的趋势,其变化范围在-8...     

地理学视角的农业节水理论框架与水资源可持续利用

水资源亏缺是中国农业可持续发展面临的主要挑战。本文从地理学的综合性视角出发,提出区域农业耗水与生产、生态效益关系的概念模型,拓展了“土壤—作物—大气系统界面节水调控理论”,构建了节水与适水并重的农业综合节水研究体系及其理论框架。并以华北平原为例,探究了中国缺水区农业水资源可持续利用途径。基于田间水循环及节水潜力的研究表明,华北平原小麦—玉米一年两熟农田年水分净亏缺220 mm,要实现农田尺度水平衡,需改为二年三熟,甚至一年一熟;京津冀区域尺度模型模拟表明,若通过调整农业种植规模和结构来平衡区域地下水超采,则小麦产量只能满足75%的口粮需求,要实现地下水采补平衡下的粮食自给,需要外部调水来补足水资源亏缺;基于农田耗水结构的节水试验表明,与地面灌相比,地下滴灌的小麦季、玉米季蒸散分别减少88 mm、60 mm,年均可节约耗水1480 m³/hm²。因此,深度田间节水技术会对种植结构和种植制度调整的节水效应产生显著支撑,从而实现稳定农业产能和水资源可持续利用的双重目标。从地理学综合视角出发,未来应更多关注变化环境下水资源的形成、转化和利用,从水量和...     

近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化

Trends in pan evaporation are widely relevant to the hydrological community as indicators of hydrological and climate change. Pan evaporation has been decreasing in the past few decades over many large areas with differing climates globally. This study analyzes pan evaporation data from 671 stations in China over the past 50 years in order to reveal the trends of it and the corresponding trend attribution. Mann-Kendall test shows a significant declining trend in pan evaporation for most stations, with an average decrease of 17.2 mm/10a in China as a whole, the rate of decline was the steepest in the humid region (29.7 mm/10a), and was 17.6 mm/10a and 5.5 mm/10a in the semi-humid/semi-arid region and arid region, respectively. Complete correlation coefficients of pan evaporation with 7 climate factors were computed, and decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR), SD (sunshine duration) and wind speed were found to be the main attributing factors in the pan evaporation declines. Decrease in DTR and SD may relate to the increase of clouds and aerosol as well as the other pollutants, and decrease in wind speed to weakening of the Asian winter and summer monsoons under global climate warming.     

陆面蒸散的双源遥感模型及其在华北平原的应用

建立了一个计算陆面蒸散的双源遥感模型,利用多光谱和热红外遥感数据估算地表土壤缺水状况,并计算蒸散通量。本模型利用2000-2002年的13期Landsat TM和ETM+遥感数据计算了栾城地区1 000 km2范围的蒸散通量。通过与地面同步微气象观测值的对比,显示利用笔者建立的双源蒸散模型和简化的植被指数-地表温度梯形法确定土壤水分状况,在华北平原能够获得比较满意的计算结果。