新冠肺炎流行病学模型的最优参数化

现如今,新冠肺炎(COVID-19)严重威胁着世界各国人民的生命健康.许多流行病学模型已经被用于为政策制定者和世界卫生组织提供决策参考.为了更加深刻的理解疫情趋势的变化特征,许多参数优化算法被用于反演模型参数.本文提议使用结合了高斯-牛顿法和梯度下降法的Levenberg-Marquardt(LMA)算法来优化模型参数.使用四个病例数相对较多的国家来验证这一算法的优势:相较于传统流行病学模型模拟曲线过早过快的到达峰值,应用 LMA 的 Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)模型可以更好地拟合实际疫情曲线.     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的Monte Carlo模拟(4):随机微分方程模型

主要研究线性随机微分方程模型,为此定义Itô随机微积分,建立Itô公式.鉴于研究的重点是利用R软件进行数值模拟,所以详细讨论了过去10多年来随机微分方程数值解的研究.     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的Monte Carlo模拟(6):其他随机微分方程模型

主要研究金融领域中的多种数学模型,重点是利用R软件进行数值模拟.继续讨论更多的随机微分方程(SDE)模型,包括均值回归过程、均值回归的Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU)过程、平方根过程、CIR模型以及Θ过程.进一步,将对当前SDE数值解的研究给出更深入的建议.     

Geochronological framework and Pb, Sr isotope geochemistry of the Qingchengzi Pb–Zn–Ag–Au orefield, Northeastern China

The Qingchengzi orefield in northeastern China, is a concentration of several Pb–Zn, Ag, and Au ore deposits. A combination of geochronological and Pb, Sr isotopic investigations was conducted. Zircon SHRIMP U–Pb ages of 225.3 ± 1.8 Ma and 184.5 ± 1.6 Ma were obtained for the Xinling and Yaojiagou granites, respectively. By step-dissolution Rb–Sr dating, ages of 221 ± 12 Ma and 138.7 ± 4.1 Ma were obtained for the sphalerite of the Zhenzigou Zn–Pb deposit and pyrargyrite of the Ag ore in the Gaojiabaozi Ag deposit, respectively. Pb isotopic ratios of the Ag ore at Gaojiabaozi (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.38 to 18.53) are higher than those of the Pb–Zn ores (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 17.66 to 17.96; Chen et al. [Chen, J.F., Yu, G., Xue, C.J., Qian, H., He, J.F., Xing, Z., Zhang, X., 2005. Pb isotope geochemistry of lead, zinc, gold and silver deposit clustered region, Liaodong rift zone, northeastern China. Science in China Series D 48, 467–476.]). Triassic granites show low Pb isotopic ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 17.12 to 17.41, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.47 to 15.54, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.51 to 37.89) and metamorphic rocks of the Liaohe Group have high ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.20 to 24.28 and 18.32 to 20.06, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.69 to 16.44 and 15.66 to 15.98, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.29 to 38.61 and 38.69 to 40.00 for the marble of the Dashiqiao Formation and schist of the Gaixian Formation, respectively).Magmatic activities at Qingchengzi and in adjacent regions took place in three stages, and each contained several magmatic pulses: ca. 220 to 225 Ma and 211 to 216 Ma in the Triassic; 179 to 185 Ma, 163 to 168 Ma, 155 Ma and 149 Ma in the Jurassic, as well as ca. 140 to 130 Ma in the Early Cretaceous. The Triassic magmatism was part of the Triassic magmatic belt along the northern margin of the North China Craton produced in a post-collisional extensional setting, and granites in it formed by crustal melting induced by mantle magma. The Jurassic and Early Cretaceous magmatism was related to the lithospheric delamination in eastern China. The Triassic is the most important metallogenic stage at Qingchengzi. The Pb–Zn deposits, the Pb–Zn–Ag ore at Gaojiabaozi, and the gold deposits were all formed in this stage. They are temporally and spatially associated with the Triassic magmatic activity. Mineralization is very weak in the Jurassic. Ag ore at Gaojiabaozi was formed in the Early Cretaceous, which is suggested by the young Rb–Sr isochron age, field relations, and significantly different Pb isotopic ratios between the Pb–Zn–Ag and Ag ores. Pb isotopic compositions of the Pb–Zn ores suggest binary mixing for the source of the deposits. The magmatic end-member is the Triassic granites and the other metamorphic rocks of the Liaohe Group. Slightly different proportions of the two end-members, or an involvement of materials from hidden Cretaceous granites with slightly different Pb isotopic ratios, is postulated to interpret the difference of Pb isotopic compositions between the Pb–Zn–(Ag) and Ag ores. Sr isotopic ratios support this conclusion. At the western part of the Qingchengzi orefield, hydrothermal fluid driven by the heat provided by the now exposed Triassic granites deposited ore-forming materials in the low and middle horizons of the marbles of the Dashiqiao Formation near the intrusions to form mesothermal Zn–Pb deposits. In the eastern part, hydrothermal fluids associated with deep, hidden Triassic intrusions moved upward along a regional fault over a long distance and then deposited the ore-forming materials to form epithermal Au and Pb–Zn–Ag ores. Young magmatic activities are all represented by dykes across the entire orefield, suggesting that the corresponding main intrusion bodies are situated in the deep part of the crust. Among these, only intrusions with age of ca. 140 Ma might have released sufficient amounts of fluid to be responsible for the formation of the Ag ore at Gaojiabaozi.Our age results support previous conclusions that sphalerite can provide a reliable Rb–Sr age as long as the fluid inclusion phase is effectively separated from the “sulfide” phase. Our work suggests that the separation can be achieved by a step-resolution technique. Moreover, we suggest that pyrargyrite is a promising mineral for Rb–Sr isochron dating.     

青金石中有序结构畴与无序结构畴交生的畴结构新类型

在黝方石、蓝方石的青金石等富含（ＳＯ４）＾２－的方钠石族矿物的有序结构中,常见有沿着一个或几个方向的结构调制,并还常伴随出现反相畴、双晶畴等畴结构。通过透射电镜研究,作者在产于俄罗斯南贝加尔的青金石中,观察了到了一种由尺度都很小（长径约在１０ｎｍ以内）的有序结构畴与无序结构畴相互交生的畴结构新类型。其畴界弈曲而不规则,但相邻畴的晶格都是相互连续而完全共格的。这种畴结构是由无序青金石在其有序化过程的     

二维地籍模型到三维地籍模型的转换方法

由于传统二维地籍管理模式已无法满足城市多元空间管理的需要,三维地籍模式逐渐成为城市地籍管理的主要方向。利用已有的二维地籍数据建立三维地籍模型,既可以避免原有数据的浪费,也可以保证管理的连续性,缩短三维地籍建立的时间。主要研究从二维地籍模型到三维地籍模型的转换方法和技术路线。在介绍二维地籍模型和三维地籍模型的各自特点的基础上,提出二维地籍数据向CO3D三维地籍数据转换的流程与算法。实例验证表明,此方法可行,转换结果正确,可以应用于实际的地籍管理工作。     

地震应急指挥中心可视化中控系统的设计与实现

介绍地震应急指挥中心中控系统的建设情况,阐述了可视化智能中控系统的功能需求、逻辑结构和应用框架结构,分析了可视化智能中控系统的功能特点,并对中控系统的技术发展和应用进行展望。     

应急管理部多层级视频会议系统跨网段转发技术

介绍应急管理部视频会议系统接入地震系统的基本情况,结合地震应急视频会议系统应用现状,分析多层级跨网视频会议系统的架构特点,着重分析跨网段"背靠背"转发优化技术方案在视频会议系统融合中的实现与应用,以期为类似的应用场景提供参考。     

中国冰雪旅游研究：内涵辨析、脉络梳理与体系构建

推动冰雪旅游高质量发展践行了“冰天雪地也是金山银山”发展理念,助推着体育强国、健康中国建设,满足了人民日益增长的美好生活需要。中国冰雪旅游历经三十多年的发展,已形成规模化、整体化发展格局;北京冬奥会的筹办更是给冰雪旅游带来重大发展契机,利好政策陆续出台,消费热情不断高涨。与此同时,冰雪旅游相关研究也持续涌现,取得了丰厚研究成果。文章以“内涵辨析-脉络梳理-体系构建”为逻辑主线,从冰雪旅游基础概念、发展脉络演进、研究内容、研究方法及区域等方面对中国冰雪旅游展开分析和评述。研究表明：冰雪旅游内涵丰富,学者们从资源、动机以及季候等视角展开了概念界定;冰雪旅游研究历经4个阶段,研究与实践联系日益紧密,产业发展受资源、政策、市场等因素驱动;研究内容已形成一定体系,与国家、产业发展战略的结合有待加强;以定性研究为主,缺乏定量、纵深研究;研究区域高度集中在东北、华北地区,且视角较为宏观。最后提出从理论构建及研究视角、研究内容、研究方法、区域等方面进行未来研究的创新。以期推动中国冰雪旅游研究的理论化和体系构建,引领和指导未来冰雪旅游领域研究,推进中国后冬奥时代冰雪旅游高质量发展。     

我国土壤中铜的污染现状与修复研究进展

铜是动植物必需的微量营养元素,但过量的铜会严重影响动植物的生长。近年来,随着工农业的迅速发展,土壤铜污染已成为重要的土壤环境污染问题之一。土壤铜污染不仅降低土壤环境质量,而且影响植物、土壤微生物、土壤酶活性等的平衡稳定发展,并威胁农产品质量安全。文中综述现阶段我国土壤铜污染的来源、污染现状,分析了土壤铜污染的特点及对土壤生态系统的危害,介绍土壤铜污染的预防方法,分析并总结目前用于治理土壤铜污染的修复技术原理、适用性及其国内外研究与发展动态,进一步提出未来我国土壤铜污染修复技术有待深入研究的相关问题,以期为我国土壤铜污染的研究和修复治理提供参考。