Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

Radar Observations of Asteroid 3908 Nyx

We report Doppler-only (cw) radar observations of basaltic near-Earth asteroid 3908 Nyx obtained at Arecibo and Goldstone in September and October of 1988. The circular polarization ratio of 0.75±0.03 exceeds ∼90% of those reported among radar-detected near-Earth asteroids and it implies an extremely rough near-surface at centimeter-to-decimeter spatial scales. Echo power spectra over narrow longitudinal intervals show a central dip indicative of at least one significant concavity. Inversion of cw spectra yields two statistically indistinguishable shape models that have similar shapes and dimensions but pole directions that differ by ∼100°. We adopt one as our working model and explore its implications. It has an effective diameter of 1.0±0.15 km and radar and visual geometric albedos of 0.15±0.075 and 0.16^+0.08_−0.05. The visual albedo supports the interpretation by D. P. Cruikshank et al. (1991, Icarus89, 1-13) that Nyx has a thermal inertia consistent with that of bare rock. The model is irregular, modestly asymmetric, and topographically rugged.     

Meteorite falls in China and some related human casualty events

Abstract— Statistics of witnessed and recovered meteorite falls found in Chinese historical texts for the period from 700 B.C. to A.D. 1920 are presented. Several notable features can be seen in the binned distribution as a function of time. An apparent decrease in the number of meteorite reports in the 18th century is observed. An excess of observed meteorite falls in the period from 1840 to 1880 seems to correspond to a similar excess in European data. A x² probability test suggests that the association between the two data sets are real. Records of human casualties and structural damage resulting from meteorite falls are also given. A calculation based on the number of casualty events in the Chinese meteorite records suggests that the probability of a meteorite striking a human is far greater than previous estimates. However, it is difficult to verify the accuracy of the reported casualty events.     

The Comet Nucleus Tour (Contour); A NASA Discovery Mission

In 1997, the COmet Nucleus TOUR (CONTOUR) was selected byNASA for a new start as part of the Discovery line. In this paper, we review the status of the mission, the mission timeline and the instruments to be flown. Detail is given of the science goals and how they are to be accomplished.     

An Estimate of Eros's Porosity and Implications for Internal Structure

Earth-based spectral measurements and NEAR Shoemaker magnetometer, X-ray, and near-infrared spectrometer data are all consistent with Eros having a bulk composition and mineralogy similar to ordinary chondrite meteorites (OC). By comparing the bulk density of 433 Eros (2.67±0.03 g/cm³) with that of OCs (3.40 g/cm³), we estimate the total porosity of the asteroid to be 21-33%. Macro (or structural) porosity, best estimated to be ∼20%, is constrained to be between 6 and 33%. We conclude that Eros is a heavily fractured body, but we find no evidence that it was ever catastrophically disrupted and reaccumulated into a rubble pile.     

Determination of Shape, Gravity, and Rotational State of Asteroid 433 Eros

Prior to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission, little was known about Eros except for its orbit, spin rate, and pole orientation, which could be determined from ground-based telescope observations. Radar bounce data provided a rough estimate of the shape of Eros. On December 23, 1998, after an engine misfire, the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft flew by Eros on a high-velocity trajectory that provided a brief glimpse of Eros and allowed for an estimate of the asteroid's pole, prime meridian, and mass. This new information, when combined with the ground-based observations, provided good a priori estimates for processing data in the orbit phase.After a one-year delay, NEAR orbit operations began when the spacecraft was successfully inserted into a 320×360 km orbit about Eros on February 14, 2000. Since that time, the NEAR spacecraft was in many different types of orbits where radiometric tracking data, optical images, and NEAR laser rangefinder (NLR) data allowed a determination of the shape, gravity, and rotational state of Eros. The NLR data, collected predominantly from the 50-km orbit, together with landmark tracking from the optical data, have been processed to determine a 24th degree and order shape model. Radiometric tracking data and optical landmark data were used in a separate orbit determination process. As part of this latter process, the spherical harmonic gravity field of Eros was primarily determined from the 10 days in the 35-km orbit. Estimates for the gravity field of Eros were made as high as degree and order 15, but the coefficients are determined relative to their uncertainty only up to degree and order 10. The differences between the measured gravity field and one determined from a constant density shape model are detected relative to their uncertainty only to degree and order 6. The offset between the center of figure and the center of mass is only about 30 m, indicating that Eros has a very uniform density (1% variation) on a large scale (35 km). Variations to degree and order 6 (about 6 km) may be partly explained by the existence of a 100-m, regolith or by small internal density variations. The best estimates for the J2000 right ascension and declination of the pole of Eros are α=11.3692±0.003° and δ=17.2273±0.006°. The rotation rate of Eros is 1639.38922±0.00015°/day, which gives a rotation period of 5.27025547 h. No wobble greater than 0.02° has been detected. Solar gravity gradient torques would introduce a wobble of at most 0.001°.     

Radar observations of apollo

Radar observations of the asteroid Apollo, at 3.5 cm wavelength, indicate a radius of 600 m and a rotation period of 3.0 hr. The data are consistent with a rough surface of either hard ice or of regolith softened rock.     

Quantifying the Risk Posed by Potential Earth Impacts

Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In order to conveniently compare and categorize the numerous potential impact solutions being discovered we propose a new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms. To this end, we measure each event in two ways, first without any consideration of the event's time proximity or its significance relative to the so-called background threat, and then in the context of the expected risk from other objects over the intervening years until the impact. This approach is designed principally to facilitate communication among astronomers, and it is not intended for public communication of impact risks. The scale characterizes impacts across all impact energies, probabilities and dates, and it is useful, in particular, when dealing with those cases which fall below the threshold of public interest. The scale also reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties.     

Comet Tempel-Tuttle and the Leonid meteors

The distribution of dust surrounding periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle has been mapped by analyzing the associated Leonid meteor shower data over the 902–1969 interval. The majority of dust ejected from the parent comet evolves to a position lagging the comet and outside the comet's orbit. The outgassing and dust ejection required to explain the parent comet's deviation from pure gravitational motion would preferentially place dust in a position leading the comet and inside the comet's orbit. Hence it appears that radiation pressure and planetary perturbations, rather than ejection processes, control the dynamic evolution of the Leonid particles. Significant Leonid meteor showers are possible roughly 2500 days before or after the parent comet reaches perihelion but only if the comet passes closer than 0.025 AU inside or 0.010 AU outside the Earth's orbit. Although the conditions in 1998–1999 are optimum for a significant Leonid meteor shower, the event is not certain because the dust particle distribution near the comet is far from uniform. As a by-product of this study, the orbit of comet Tempel-Tuttle has been redetermined for the 1366–1966 observed interval.