A new approach for predicting the extreme response of structures

In this article a method to estimate the mean upcrossing intensity, μ(u), of a stochastic process is proposed. It is assumed that the stochastic process is a sum of a Gaussian process and a second-order correction term. The method is based on the two-dimensional Saddlepoint approximation. The accuracy of the method is tested on processes having analytical solutions for μ(u). Numerical examples are given where the stochastic process represents (i) the horizontal response of a floating offshore structure in a Gaussian sea, and (ii) the response of a structure subjected to a Gaussian wind velocity process. In addition, the estimates are compared to empirical upcrossing intensities of simulated responses. For case (ii), the obtained μ(u) estimates are compared to estimates obtained by numerical integration.     

Comparison of soil solution chemistry sampled by centrifugation, two types of suction lysimeters and zero-tension lysimeters

The choice of sampling method for soil solution is of great importance. In this paper soil solution chemistry sampled by centrifugation, two types of suction lysimeters and zero-tension lysimeters have been studied with the purpose of investigating systematic differences between them. The samples were taken at 4 depths from an acidified forest soil as well as from adjacent lime and ash treated soils. A centrifugation drainage method was compared with two types of suction lysimeters (‘Rhizon’ and ‘Prenart’) and zero-tension lysimeters. About half of the 27 variables measured showed a significant difference between the sampling methods used. Typically the centrifuged samples had lower pH (4.0 vs. 4.4), Ca (21 μM vs. 30 μM) and Mg (25 μM vs. 34 μM) concentrations and higher Cl (330 μM vs. 230 μM) and DOC (4.4 mM vs. 3.2 mM) concentrations than the Rhizon lysimeters. Also the other lysimeters showed significant differences compared to the centrifuged samples for about half the number of analytes. Centrifuged samples had higher concentrations of all analytes except NO₃ and PO₄ compared to zero-tension lysimeters and also for all analytes except NO₃ and Al compared to Prenart lysimeters. Among the environmental factors considered depth showed an influence to some extent, while sampling occasion had a great significant impact on the difference between the centrifugation method and the Rhizon lysimeters. Factors like individual pits or soil treatment did not show any influence on the difference between the methods.     

Two bioerosion ichnofacies produced by early and late burial associated with sea-level change

In bioerosion, as in trace fossils as a whole, deeply emplaced structures have greater survival value than shallow structures. That is to say, tiering (the relative depth to which rasping, etching and boring organisms penetrate their substrate) is of paramount importance for the preservation potential of individual trace fossils. An Entobia ichnofacies is established for trace fossil assemblages dominated by deep tier borings and arising from long-term bioerosion, such as occurs on sediment-free submarine cliffs or hardgrounds. A Gnathichnus ichnofacies comprises assemblages containing all tiers, including superficial sculptures produced by radulation that have very little preservation potential. Such assemblages occur in short-term bioerosion situations as on shell surfaces and hardgrounds buried early by sedimentation. Correspondence to: R. G. Bromley     

Mode trapping in sdO models

Mode trapping of high-radial order gravity modes was found for a particular sdO model. The trapping is caused by the change in composition from the helium radiative shell to the hydrogen burning shell. A non-adiabatic effect of this trapping is the higher tendency to instability of the trapped modes. Low- to intermediate-radial order pressure modes (in sdO models they correspond to mixed modes with most nodes in the P-mode region) are found to be trapped by the chemical transition from the carbon-oxygen core to the He burning shell. As the trapping is produced in the deep interior of the star, where energy interchange is negligible at the p-mode frequencies, it has no particular effect on the driving.     

Discovery of the 'missing' mode in HR 1217 by the Whole Earth Telescope

HR 1217 is a prototypical rapidly oscillating Ap star that has presented a test to the theory of non-radial stellar pulsation. Prior observations showed a clear pattern of five modes with alternating frequency spacings of 33.3 and 34.6 μHz, with a sixth mode at a problematic spacing of 50.0 μHz (which equals  1.5×33.3 μHz)  to the high-frequency side. Asymptotic pulsation theory allowed for a frequency spacing of 34 μHz, but Hipparcos observations rule out such a spacing. Theoretical calculations of magnetoacoustic modes in Ap stars by Cunha predicted that there should be a previously undetected mode 34 μHz higher than the main group, with a smaller spacing between it and the highest one. In this Letter, we present preliminary results from a multisite photometric campaign on the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 1217 using the 'Whole Earth Telescope'. While a complete analysis of the data will appear in a later paper, one outstanding result from this run is the discovery of a newly detected frequency in the pulsation spectrum of this star, at the frequency predicted by Cunha.     

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba,South Sudan

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I?=?3.05, I-stat?=?9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.     

Shock metamorphic features in quartz grains from the Saarijärvi and Söderfjärden impact structures,Finland

Shock metamorphic features at the Saarijärvi (D > 2 km) and Söderfjärden (D = 6.5 km) structures in Finland have so far only been studied tentatively, although both are considered to be proven impact structures. This work presents the first detailed universal stage study of planar deformation features (PDFs), feather feature lamellae (FFL), and planar fractures (PFs) in quartz grains from a polymict impact breccia dike from Söderfjärden, and from sedimentary crater‐fill rocks from Saarijärvi. Planar microstructures, particularly PDFs, are very rare and poorly developed or preserved in Saarijärvi, whereas in Söderfjärden they are much more common and well defined. Miller–Bravais indices of the planar microstructures in both Saarijärvi and Söderfjärden are indicative of relatively low‐shock pressure but high shear conditions, only compatible with an impact origin for these structures. Although a Proterozoic age for Saarijärvi cannot be ruled out, the observations of shock features throughout the sedimentary crater‐fill sequence and a brecciated sedimentary dike below the crater floor are more consistent with a Lower Cambrian (or younger) impact age.     

Early Holocene coastal settlements and palaeoenvironment on the shore of the Baltic Sea at Pärnu, southwestern Estonia

Studies were conducted on 16 sections of buried organic matter (pre-Ancylus Lake and pre-Litorina Sea) and associated Stone Age cultural layers in the Pärnu area, southwestern Estonia. Buried organic beds are each part of a sedimentary sequence, which is repeated, forming two overlying sets of an orderly succession of five layers. The organic sedimentation of the lower set (set 1) occurred about 10,800–10,200 years BP, and that of the upper set (set 2) about 9450–7800 years BP. Associated with set 1 is the Early-Mesolithic settlement of Pulli, and with set 2 are the Stone Age cultural layers at Sindi-Lodja. The Early- and Middle-Mesolithic sites in Estonia are concentrated on shores of rivers and lakes to utilise of a variability of resources. The hunters and fishermen followed the ancient Pärnu River downstream to the receding shoreline of the Yoldia Sea. After about 10,700 years BP, they were forced to retreat inland in front of the transgressive Ancylus Lake shore which first inundated the Paikuse area about 10,400 years BP, and Pulli and higher sites about 10,200 years BP. The total amplitude of the transgression preceded 11 m and reached up to 14 m a.s.l. in the area. The Litorina Sea transgression reached 7 m a.s.l. after 8000–7800 years BP. The Mesolithic, Neolithic and modern sites on top of each other in the Pärnu area may suggest that, although years apart, they were inhabited by the same group of people who stayed in the area and moved back and forth together with the shifting shoreline of the Baltic Sea.     

Exact distributions for apparent waves in irregular seas

We discuss the long-run distributions of several characteristics for the apparent waves in a Gaussian sea. Three types of one-dimensional wave records are considered: 1) the seaway in time at a fixed position; 2) the instantaneous profile along a horizontal line; 3) the encountered seaway. Exact integral forms of the joint long run distributions are derived for the apparent periods, lengths, and heights. Results of numerical approximations of these distributions are presented in examples. For the computations we considered, as the input spectra, empirical estimates of the frequency spectra as well as JONSWAP type spectra. Effective algorithms are discussed and utilized in the form of a comprehensive computer package of numerical routines.