A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Efficacy of beach dewatering — Alassio,Italy

The goal of this study is to estimate the efficiency of dewatering operations in Alassio Beach, north Italy by following an integrated approach which included beach volume calculations, daily mapping of the shoreline position, examination of specific beach widening events and daily comparisons of morphodynamic characteristics of the drained beach versus a control section which included wave run-up, bar patterns, rip migration, evolution of the berm and cusp morphology.     

Relationship between some trace elements and magmatic processes

Relationships between magmatic differentiation, volcanological evolution and occurrence of some trace elements have been pointed out by a petrographic and volcanological study of the Quaternary magmatic products of the Northern Latium alkali-potassic volcanoes (Sabatini, Vico, Vulsini).Several hundred analyses of U, Th, Be, Zr, Rb, Sr have been carried out. The above elements are contained in exceptional quantity in the examined alkaline rocks. The distribution pattern of these elements helps for a better understanding of some types of differentiation and, above all, allows to identify the processes related to the uplift and outflow of magmas which are undetectable with the usual petrochemical methods.In particular, the trace elements considered allow us to distinguish a deepseated magma evolution from superficial differentiations related to the volcanic conditions. Moreover, a loss of alkalies from the upper levels of the magmatic chambers has been ascertained which determines peculiar deformations in the normal petrogenetic trends.-- (: Sabatini, Vico, Vulsini). , . .

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Zusammenfassung Das petrographische und vulkanologische Studium der quartären Vulkanite der Mediterranen Sippe des nördlichen Latiums (die Vulkane Sabatini, Vico und Vulsini) haben uns die Gelegenheit gegeben, die Verhältnisse zwischen Magmenentwicklung, vulkanologischer Evolution und Verteilung einiger Spurenelemente zu bestätigen.Zu diesem Zweck sind Hunderte von Analysen von U, Th, Be, Zr, Sr, Rb — Elemente welche in ungemein großen Mengen in den untersuchten alkalischen Gesteinen enthalten sind — vorgenommen worden. Das Studium der Verteilung dieser Elemente hat ein gründliches Verstehen einiger Differentiationstypen erlaubt, und vor allem den Ablauf des Prozesses des Magmen-Aufstiegs und Abflusses gezeigt, welcher nicht mittels der normalen petrochemischen Untersuchungen ersichtlich ist.Besonders die in Betracht gezogenen Spurenelemente erlauben die Unterscheidung der magmatischen Evolution in den tiefen Lagen von den oberflächlicheren Differentiationen, welche an das vulkanische Geschehen gebunden sind.In dieser Hinsicht ist ein wichtiges Schlußergebnis die Bestätigung des Alkaliverlustes seitens der oberflächlichen Sektoren der Magmaherde, ein Verlust welcher eigenartige Deformationen von den normalen petrogenetischen Linien gezeigt hat.

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Résumé L'étude pétrographique et volcanologique des manifestations magmatiques quaternaires de la province alcalin-potassique du Latium septentrional (Volcans Sabatini, Vico et Vulsini) nous a permis de vérifier les rapports entre la différenciation magmatique, l'évolution volcanologique et la distribution de quelques éléments en traces.Dans ce but on a exécuté plusieurs centaines d'analyses de U, Th, Be, Zn, Rb, Sr, éléments qui sont présents en quantité exceptionellement élevé dans les roches alcalines examinées.L'étude de la distribution de ces éléments a permis une compréhension plus approfondie de certains types de differenciation et surtout, elle a indiqué l'existence de processus liés à la remontée et effusion des magmas, qui ne sont pas relevables par les examens pétrochimiques normaux.En particulier les éléments en traces considérés permettent de distinguer l'évolution magmatique de milieu profond des différenciations superficielles liées aux situations volcaniques.A ce propos une conclusion importante a été la constatation de la perte d'alcali par les portions plus superficielles des réservoirs magmatiques; une perte qui a déterminé des déformations particulières qui les éloignent des lignes pétrogénétiques normales.

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Authors are indepded to Dr. S.Smcana and to Dr. G.Falchi for the analyses performance.     

An inverse procedure to estimate transmissivity from heads and SP signals

Experimental hydraulic heads and electrical (self-potential) signals associated with a pumping test were used in an inverse model to estimate the transmissivity distribution of a real aquifer. Several works reported in the literature show that there is a relatively good linear relationship between the hydraulic heads in the aquifer and electrical signals measured at the ground surface. In this experimental test field, first, the current coupling coefficient was determined by the best fit between experimental and modeled self-potential signals at the end of the pumping phase. Soon afterward, with the hydraulic heads obtained from the self-potential signals, the transmissivity distribution of the aquifer was conditioned by means an inverse model based on the successive linear estimator (SLE). To further substantiate the estimated T field from the SLE analysis, we analyzed the drawdown rate, the derivative of the drawdown with respect to the ln(t), because the drawdown rate is highly sensitive to the variability in the transmissivity field. In our opinion, these results show that self-potential signals allow the monitoring of subsurface flow in the course of pumping experiments, and that electrical potentials serve as a good complement to piezometric observations to condition and characterize the transmissivity distribution of an aquifer.     

Exoplanet atmospheres with EChO: spectral retrievals using EChOSim

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory mission concept for constraining the atmospheric properties of hot and warm gas giants and super Earths. Synthetic primary and secondary transit spectra for a range of planets are passed through EChOSim [13] to obtain the expected level of noise for different observational scenarios; these are then used as inputs for the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code and the retrieved atmospheric properties (temperature structure, composition and cloud properties) compared with the known input values, following the method of [1]. To correctly retrieve the temperature structure and composition of the atmosphere to within 2 σ, we find that we require: a single transit or eclipse of a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like (G2) star at 35 pc to constrain the terminator and dayside atmospheres; 20 transits or eclipses of a warm Jupiter orbiting a similar star; 10 transits/eclipses of a hot Neptune orbiting an M dwarf at 6 pc; and 30 transits or eclipses of a GJ1214b-like planet.     

Shallow earthquakes in a viscoelastic shear zone with depth-dependent friction and rheology

Summary. Most crustal earthquakes of the world are observed to occur within a seismogenic layer which extends from the Earth's surface to a depth of a few tens of kilometres at most. A model is proposed in which the shear zone along a transcurrent plate margin is represented as a viscoelastic medium with depth-dependent power-law rheology. A frictional resistance linearly increasing with depth is assumed on a vertical transcurrent fault within the shear zone. Such a model is able to reproduce a continuous transition from the brittle behaviour of the upper crust to the ductile behaviour at depth. Assuming that the shear zone is subjected to a constant strain rate from the opposite motions of the two adjacent plates, it is found that there exists a maximum depth H below which tectonic stress can never reach the frictional threshold: this may be identified as the maximum depth of earthquake nucleation. The value of H is consistent with observations for plausible values of the model parameters. The stress evolution in the shear zone is calculated in the linear approximation of the constitutive equation. A change in rigidity with depth, which is also introduced in the model, may reproduce the high vertical gradient of shear stress, which has been measured across the San Andreas fault, and the fact that most earthquakes are nucleated at some depth in the seismogenic layer. A crack which drops the ambient stress to the dynamic frictional level is then introduced in the model. To this aim, a crack solution is employed without a stress singularity at its edges, which is compatible with a frictional stress threshold criterion for fracture. A constraint on the vertical friction gradient is obtained if such cracks are assumed to be entirely confined within the seismogenic layer.