Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a river delta: a case study of Cimanuk river mouth,Indonesia

This paper describes delta development processes with particular reference to Cimanuk Delta in Indonesia. Cimanuk river delta, the most rapidly growing river delta in Indonesia, is located on the northern coast of Java Island. The delta is subject to ocean waves of less than 1 m height due to its position in the semi‐enclosed Java Sea in the Indonesian archipelago. The study has been carried out using a hydrodynamic model that accounts for sediment movement through the rivers and estuaries. As an advanced approach to management of river deltas, a numerical model, namely MIKE‐21, is used as a tool in the management of Cimanuk river delta. From calibration and verification of hydrodynamic model, it was found that the best value of bed roughness was 0·1 m. For the sediment‐transport model, the calibration parameters were adjusted to obtain the most satisfactory results of suspended sediment concentration and volume of deposition. By comparing the computed and observed data in the calibration, the best values of critical bed shear stress for deposition, critical bed shear stress for erosion and erosion coefficient were 0·05 N m^?2, 0·15 N m^?2, and 0·00001 kg m^?2 s^?1, respectively. The calibrated model was then used to analyse sensitivity of model parameters and to simulate delta development during the periods 1945–1963 and 1981–1997. It was found that the sensitive model parameters were bed shear stresses for deposition and erosion, while the important model inputs were river suspended sediment concentration, sediment characteristics and hydrodynamic. The model result showed reasonable agreement with the observed data. As evidenced by field data, the mathematical model proves that the Cimanuk river delta is a river‐dominated delta because of its protrusion pattern and very high sediment loads from the Cimanuk river. It was concluded that 86% of sediment load from the Cimanuk river was deposited in the Cimanuk delta. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of fluid percolation in a rough-walled rock fracture

A comparison of experimental and numerical results is presented addressing two-phase immiscible displacement in rough fractures. Quasi-static, capillary displacement in a rough fracture is modeled using the modified invasion percolation approach proposed by Glass et al (1998), and the results are compared against experimental observations obtained from two-phase flow through a rock fracture using x-ray computed-tomography scanning. The model is based on an algorithm seeking the least resistant pathway for the advancement of the invading fluid using the Young-Laplace equation and accounting for local in-plane curvature of the advancing fluid front. The saturation distribution map generated by the model yields good agreement with the experimental phase distribution and presents more realistic phase structures than those obtained from the conventional invasion percolation approach. The improvement in the results obtained with the modified invasion percolation approach is attributed to the contribution of the in-plane curvature term, which captures the effect of regionalized apertures, rather than single-point apertures, on the shape of the invading front. Glass RJ, Nicholl MJ, Yarrington L (1998) A modified invasion percolation model for low-capillary number immiscible displacements in horizontal rough-walled fractures: influence of local in-plane curvature. Water Resour Res 34:3215–3234     

Application of tank,NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting

Two lumped conceptual hydrological models, namely tank and NAM and a neural network model are applied to flood forecasting in two river basins in Thailand, the Wichianburi on the Pasak River and the Tha Wang Pha on the Nan River using the flood forecasting procedure developed in this study. The tank and NAM models were calibrated and verified and found to give similar results. The results were found to improve significantly by coupling stochastic and deterministic models (tank and NAM) for updating forecast output. The neural network (NN) model was compared with the tank and NAM models. The NN model does not require knowledge of catchment characteristics and internal hydrological processes. The training process or calibration is relatively simple and less time consuming compared with the extensive calibration effort required by the tank and NAM models. The NN model gives good forecasts based on available rainfall, evaporation and runoff data. The black‐box nature of the NN model and the need for selecting parameters based on trial and error or rule‐of‐thumb, however, characterizes its inherent weakness. The performance of the three models was evaluated statistically. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A coupled numerical model for simulation of wave breaking and hydraulic performances of a composite seawall

A numerical model is developed by combining a porous flow model and a two-phase flow model to simulate wave transformation in porous structure and hydraulic performances of a composite type low-crest seawall. The structure consists of a wide submerged reef, a porous terrace at the top and an impermeable rear wall. The porous flow model is based on the extended Navier-Stokes equations for wave motion in porous media and k−ε turbulence equations. The two-phase flow model combines the water domain with the air zone of finite thickness above water surface. A unique solution domain is established by satisfying kinematic boundary condition at the interface of air and water. The free surface advection of water wave is modeled by the volume of fluid method with newly developed fluid advection algorithm. Comparison of computed and measured wave properties shows reasonably good agreement. The influence of terrace width and structure porosity is investigated based on numerical results. It is concluded that there exist optimum value of terrace width and porosity that can maximize hydraulic performances. The velocity distributions inside and in front of the structure are also investigated.     

Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River,Thailand

Abstract

This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km² in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously.

Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161.     

FLOW PATTERNS AND DAMAGE OF DIKE OVERTOPPING

Damage of a dike may result in severe damage and suffering. To reduce downstream damage and loss of life, it is important to study the process of breaching of the damaged dike. It is not possible to understand the damage process without a clear understanding of the flow patterns encountered. In the present study, data obtained from nine experimental runs are analyzed. The flow patterns and progressive damage of dike overtopping are investigated. Two types of phenomena at the dike surface: erosion; and erosion and sliding, are observed during the overtopping event. Four stages of dike damage can be distinguished. The degradation rate of the dike crest is found to be dependent on the downstream slope of the dike. The degradation rate is higher when the downstream slope is steeper.     

A combined simulation–genetic algorithm optimization model for optimal rule curves of a reservoir: a case study of the Nam Oon Irrigation Project,Thailand

A combined simulation–genetic algorithm (GA) optimization model is developed to determine optimal reservoir operational rule curves of the Nam Oon Reservoir and Irrigation Project in Thailand. The GA and simulation models operate in parallel over time with interactions through their solution procedure. A GA is selected as an optimization model, instead of traditional techniques, owing to its powerful and robust performance and simplicity in combining with a simulation technique. A GA is different from conventional optimization techniques in the way that it uses objective function information and does not require its derivatives, whereas in real‐world optimization problems the search space may include discontinuities and may often include a number of sub‐optimum peaks. This may cause difficulties for calculus‐based and enumerative schemes, but not in a GA. The simulation model is run to determine the net system benefit associated with state and control variables. The combined simulation–GA model is applied to determine the optimal upper and lower rule curves on a monthly basis for the Nam Oon Reservoir, Thailand. The objective function is maximum net system benefit subject to given constraints for three scenarios of cultivated areas. The monthly release is calculated by the simulation model in accordance with the given release policy, which depends on water demand. The optimal upper and lower rule curves are compared with the results of the HEC‐3 model (Reservoir System Analysis for Conservation model) calculated by the Royal Irrigation Department, Thailand, and those obtained using the standard operating policy. It was found that the optimal rule curves yield the maximum benefit and minimum damages caused by floods and water shortages. The combined simulation–GA model shows an excellent performance in terms of its optimization results and efficient computation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam,Pakistan

Many reservoirs around the world are being operated based on rule curves developed without considering the evacuation of deposited sediment. Current reservoir simulation and optimization models fall short of incorporating the concept of sustainability because the reservoir storage losses due to sedimentation are not considered. This study develops a new model called Reservoir Optimization‐Simulation with Sediment Evacuation (ROSSE) model. The model utilizes genetic algorithm based optimization capabilities and embeds the sediment evacuation module into the simulation module. The sediment evacuation module is implemented using the Tsinghua university flushing equation. The ROSSE model is applied to optimize the rule curves of Tarbela Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Pakistan with chronic sedimentation problems. In the present study, rule curves are optimized for maximization of net economic benefits from water released. The water released can be used for irrigation, power production, sediment evacuation, and for flood control purposes. Relative weights are used to combine the benefits from these conflicting water uses. Nine sets of rule curves are compared, namely existing rule curves and proposed rule curves for eight scenarios developed for various policy options. These optimized rule curves show an increase of net individual economic benefits ranging from 9 to 248% over the existing rule curves. The shortage of irrigation supply during the simulation period is reduced by 38% and reservoir sustainability is enhanced by 28% through increased sediment evacuation. The study concludes that by modifying the operating policy and rule curves, it is possible to enhance the reservoir's sustainability and maximize the net economic benefits. The developed methodology and the model can be used for optimization of rule curves of other reservoirs with sedimentation problems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.