Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Satellite detection of red tide in Ariake Sound, 1998–2001

High resolution SeaWiFS data was used to detect red tide events that occurred in the Ariake Sound, Japan, a small embayment known as one of the most productive areas in Japan. SeaWiFS chlorophyll data clearly showed that a large red tide event, which damaged seaweed (Nori) cultures, started early in December 2000 in Isahaya Bay, expanded to the whole sound and persisted to the end of February 2001. The monthly average of SeaWiFS data from May 1998 to December 2001 indicated that the chlorophyll peaks appeared twice a year, in early summer and in fall, after the peaks of rain and river discharge. The SeaWiFS data showed that the red tide event during 2000–2001 winter was part of the fall bloom; however, it started later and continued significantly longer than other years. Satellite ocean color data is useful to detect the red tide; however the algorithms require improvement to accurately estimate chlorophyll in highly turbid water and in red tide areas.     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.     

Estimating the geostrophic velocity obtained by HF radar observations in the upstream area of the Kuroshio

A method to extract geostrophic current in the daily mean HF radar data in the Kuroshio upstream region is established by comparison with geostrophic velocity determined from the along-track altimetry data. The estimated Ekman current in the HF velocity is 1.2% (1.5%) and 48° (38°)-clockwise rotated with respect to the daily mean wind in (outside) the Kuroshio. Furthermore, additional temporal smoothing is found necessary to remove residual ageostrophic currents such as the inertial oscillation. After removal of the ageostrophic components, the HF geostrophic velocity agrees well with that from the altimetry data with rms difference 0.14 (0.12) m/s in (outside) the Kuroshio.     

Rockfall hazard in the Daisekkei Valley, the northern Japanese Alps, on 11 August 2005

This paper describes a rockfall event in the Daisekkei Valley of Mount Shirouma-dake (2,932 m), the northern Japanese Alps. The rockfall occurred on a steep cliff comprising well-jointed felsites and produced debris of ≥8,000 m³. Most debris was deposited on an elongated snowpatch located immediately beneath the cliff, and it caused casualties among people who were trekking along a trail on the snowpatch. Additionally, a large rock block slipped 1 km on the snowpatch. The rockfall could have been due to the differential retreat of the rockwall, which contains areas of high- and low-density joints. Seasonal and diurnal freeze–thaw activities and snow avalanches and wash appear to be important factors responsible for the retreat. Although some rock blocks that can collapse further remain on the rockwall, the position of the mountain trail in the Daisekkei Valley is fixed. Fundamental reform of tourism systems for climbers, including education on natural hazards, is required.     

A New Coastal Marine Ecosystem Model Study Coupled with Hydrodynamics and Tidal Flat Ecosystem Effect

A new coastal marine ecosystem model was developed, which was composed of pelagic and benthic ecosystems, and was applied to Mikawa Bay, Japan. This model deals with variations of biochemical and physical interactions among dissolved oxygen and C–N–P species (composition formed out of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus elements) so that it resolves the flux dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen elements. The physical and biochemical mechanism figured in this model is constructed for the purpose of simulating the estuarine lower trophic ecosystem, in areas where the sea was too deep for light to reach the sea-bottom. As a result of coupling the benthic with pelagic system, the effect of process of sedimentation and nutrient diffusion back to the pelagic system could be indicated. In addition, by implementing the tidal flat ecosystem model's calculation result, the integrated model can include the effect of water purification in tidal flats where the light can reach the sea-bottom, and where sea-weed, sea grass and benthic algae exist. In this study, the model indicates that oxygen-depleted water exists at the sea-bottom especially in summer mainly caused by an increase of oxygen consumption in the benthic system and a decrease of the vertical mixing water process. Furthermore, by comparing the case – with the tidal flat ecosystem model and the case without it, the effect of water purification of tidal flat estuaries was indicated. From the viewpoint of a short time scale, the tidal flat has the potential to restrict red tide (rapid increase of phytoplankton), and from the viewpoint of a long time scale, it restricts the sedimentation of detritus. Restricting the sedimentation prevents oxygen-depleted water occurring in the coastal marine system of Mikawa Bay.     

Preliminary assessment of eutrophication by remotely sensed chlorophyll-a in Toyama Bay,the Sea of Japan

Time series of the chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) observed by ocean color satellites from 1998 to 2009 were used to assess eutrophication in Toyama Bay, the Sea of Japan. An overall mean of Chl-a during the 12-year period was used to divide the study area into “high” or “low” Chl-a areas based on a reference condition of 5 mg m^?3. The annual maximum monthly mean Chl-a trend was estimated pixel-wise and its significance examined by the Sen slope test at a 90 % confidence level. By combining the level and trend of remotely sensed Chl-a, Toyama Bay was then classified into six eutrophication states: high-increasing, high-no trend, high-decreasing, low-increasing, low-no trend and low-increasing. Our study indicates that the combined use of both the level and trend of remotely sensed Chl-a can be an efficient method to preliminarily assess eutrophication of coastal waters after a quality screening process with level 2 flags and validation with in situ Chl-a data.     

Influence of relative density,particle shape,and stress path on the plane strain compression behavior of granular materials

Two types of stress path-controlled plane strain compression tests were performed on both loose and dense specimens of angular and sub-angular sands and two rounded glass beads with different particle sizes. Digital image correlation method was used to analyze local deformation developments, especially shear band patterns. The material behavior in response to shearing has been found to be dependent on the relative density, particle shape, and stress path. The results of analysis on local deformation developments showed that the onset of shear bands occurred prior to their peak strengths in both dense and loose specimens. The growth rates of local maximum shear strain along a shear band were approximately consistent with an increasing global axial strain after the onset of shear band. The shear band width was influenced by both the mean particle size and the particle shape. The measured shear band inclination angles were in between those estimated by Coulomb’s and Roscoe’s formulas.     

Primary melt from Sannome-gata volcano,NE Japan arc: constraints on generation conditions of rear-arc magmas

The conditions under which rear-arc magmas are generated were estimated using primary basalts from the Sannome-gata volcano, located in the rear of the NE Japan arc. Scoriae from the volcano occur with abundant crustal and mantle xenoliths, suggesting that the magma ascended rapidly from the upper mantle. The scoriae show significant variations in their whole-rock compositions (7.9–11.1 wt% MgO). High-MgO scoriae (MgO > ~9.5 wt%) have mostly homogeneous ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70318–0.70320), whereas low-MgO scoriae (MgO < ~9 wt%) have higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (>0.70327); ratios tend to increase with decreasing MgO content. The high-MgO scoriae are aphyric, containing ~5 vol% olivine microphenocrysts with Mg# [100 × Mg/(Mg + Fe²⁺)] of up to 90. In contrast, the low-MgO scoriae have crustal xenocrysts of plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and quartz, and the mineralogic modes correlate negatively with whole-rock MgO content. On the basis of these observations, it is inferred that the high-MgO scoriae represent primary or near-primary melts, while the low-MgO scoriae underwent considerable interaction with the crust. Using thermodynamic analysis of the observed petrological features of the high-MgO scoriae, the eruption temperature of the magmas was constrained to 1,160–1,220 °C. Given that the source mantle was depleted MORB-source mantle, the primary magma was plausibly generated by ~7 % melting of a garnet-bearing spinel peridotite; taking this into consideration, and considering the constraints of multi-component thermodynamics, we estimated that the primary Sannome-gata magma was generated in the source mantle with 0.5–0.6 wt% H₂O at 1,220–1,230 °C and at ~1.8 GPa, and that the H₂O content of the primary magma was 6–7 wt%. The rear-arc Sannome-gata magma was generated by a lower degree of melting of the mantle at greater depths and lower temperatures than the frontal-arc magma from the Iwate volcano, which was also estimated to be generated by ~15 % melting of the source mantle with 0.6–0.7 wt% H₂O at ~1,250 °C and at ~1.3 GPa.