GIS-based distributed technique for assessing economic loss from flood damage: pre-feasibility study for the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea

Large national budgets are required for flood damage reduction projects, making it critical to ensure that public money used therein be spent efficiently. Accordingly, reliable assessment of flood damage is a critical issue in analysis of the economic aspects of flood damage reduction projects. To this end, this study aims to provide a GIS (geographical information system)-based technique for distributed flood damage assessment. We consider two aspects of flood damage assessment from an engineering and economic perspective, i.e. flood inundation analysis and multi-dimensional flood damage analysis (MD-FDA). To perform this assessment, we used a GIS-based framework and data processing method to assess damages. The proposed methodology was applied to flood control channel projects for flood disaster prevention in the Anyang Stream Basin in Korea and presents detailed GIS data processing and assessment results. Findings from this study may contribute to the improvement of usability of MD-FDA and may provide research directions for integrating economic and engineering factors. This distributed technique will also assist in the decision-making process when evaluating the economic feasibility of flood damage reduction projects for structural and non-structural measures.     

Effect of Wind and Rainfall on Water Exchange in a Stratified Estuary

This study was conducted to estimate the horizontal and vertical exchange of water in response to meteorological effects in Inohana Lake, Japan. To examine the horizontal water flow between Hamana and Inohana Lakes while monitoring horizontal and vertical exchanges of water within the lake, we determined the current velocity, salinity, and water density in the field. We performed regression analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors such as wind and rain and the horizontal water flow between the two lakes. This information was then used to construct a simple box model to estimate the average water exchange and evaluate the meteorological effect based on the average salinity and river discharge. These results revealed that the surface water-volume flux in the channel was heavily influenced by the north–south wind intensity. These findings indicate that a box model is capable of providing a good estimate of the summer-averaged water flow and the exchange rate that is influenced by wind and rain.     

Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.     

Variation and uncertainty in the predicted flowering dates of cherry blossoms using the CMIP5 climate change scenario

In this study, we analyzed changes in the predicted flowering date (PFD) for cherry blossom trees under changing climate conditions by simulating the PFDs for six sites on the Korean Peninsula between 1981 and 2010. The spatial downscaled climate data from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenarios of 30 global climate models (GCMs) were used in the analysis. Here, we present the range of uncertainty in the PFDs, which were calculated by comparing the simulated PFDs to the observed flowering dates. We determined that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of PFDs from individual GCMs, at 7-15 days, were greater in range than those of the mean PFDs from multiple GCMs, at 7-8 days. During three future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, the standard deviations (SD), the interquartile ranges (IQRs), and the relative changes in the mean predicted flowering dates (MPFDs) were calculated to quantify the uncertainty levels inherent from the climate scenarios of multiple GCMs. Distinctive changes in the SDs and IQRs of MPFD were found among the analyzed sites. The SDs increased with time between each future period in Seoul, Incheon, and Jeonju, whereas those in Daegu, Busan, and Mokpo decreased with time. In addition, the IQRs increased with time at Seoul, Incheon, Jeonju, and Daegu but not at Busan and Mokpo. The relative changes in the MPFDs at all six sites became greater with time toward the year 2100. Therefore, combining multiple GCM scenarios may not contribute largely to reduce the uncertainty in the PFDs under changing climate conditions, although it may be useful in quantifying the uncertainty in order to make better decisions based on more accurate information.     

Simulation of the 1953 storm surge in the North Sea

The 1953 North Sea floods, the Big Flood, was one of the worst natural disasters in Europe in modern times and is probably one of the most studied severe coastal floods. Several factors led to the devastating storm surge along the southern North Sea coast in combination of strong and sustained northerly winds, invert barometric effect, high spring tide, and an accumulation of the large surge in the Strait of Dover. However, the storm waves and their roles during the 1953 North Sea storm surge are not well investigated. Therefore, the effect of wave setup due to breaking waves in the storm surge processes is investigated through numerical experiments. A coupled process-based tide-wave-surge model was used to investigate and simulate the storm surge in the North Sea during January 31–February 1, 1953 and validated by comparing with historical water level records at tide gauges and wave observations at light vessels in the North Sea. Meteorological forcing inputs for the period, January 27–February 3, 1953 are reproduced from ERA-20C reanalysis data with a constant correction factor for winds. From the simulation results, it is found that, in addition to the high water due to wind setup, wave setup due to breaking waves nearshore play a role of approximately 10% of the storm surge peaks with approximately 0.2 m. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the preparedness of the storm surge and wave of extreme condition, and usual barotropic forecast.     

Long-term measurements of atmospheric PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> and its chemical composition in rural Korea

Long-term measurements of ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5) and its chemical compositions were performed at a rural site in Korea from December 2005 to August 2009. The average PM_2.5 concentration was 31 μg m⁻³ for the whole sampling period, and showed a slightly downward annual trend. The major components of PM_2.5 were organic carbon, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺, which accounted for 55 % of total PM_2.5 mass on average. For the top 10 % of PM_2.5 samples, anionic constituents and trace elements clearly increased while carbonaceous constituents and NH₄⁺ remained relatively constant. Both Asian dust and fog events clearly increased PM_2.5 concentrations, but affected its chemical composition differently. While trace elements significantly increased during Asian dust events, NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺ and Cl were dramatically enhanced during fog events due to the formation of saturated or supersaturated salt solution. The back-trajectory based model, PSCF (Potential Source Contribution Function) identified the major industrial areas in Eastern China as the possible source areas for the high PM_2.5 concentrations at the sampling site. Using factor analysis, soil, combustion processes, non-metal manufacture, and secondary PM_2.5 sources accounted for 77 % of the total explained variance.     

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan (5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan (typhoon Vera (5915)), which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.