Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.     

近47a来青海湖流域气候变化分析

选取青海湖流域内及临近7个气象站点,对各站1959～2005年的降水和气温数据采用泰森多边形法进行了计算,并运用Mann-Kendall方法对其变化趋势进行了分析,同时对流域近47 a的气候变化与青海湖水位变化做了相关分析。结果表明:①青海湖流域近47 a来降水存在明显的阶段性变化,20世纪60年代、80年代、90年代降水都呈上升的趋势,70年代为下降趋势;同时年、夏季降水有增加的趋势。②同时期气温存在显著的上升趋势,尤其是冬季增温显著,年变化倾向率达到0.53℃/10 a,1987～2000年与1961～1986年相比,平均气温增加了0.79℃,显著高于全国水平。③青海湖流域近47 a来春、夏、秋、冬陆面蒸发变化倾向率均为正值,夏季陆面蒸发增加趋势显著,年变化倾向率为4.17 mm/10 a。④流域降水量对湖水位的年变化、布哈河径流、沙柳河径流有着显著的影响;在9 a尺度上讲,未来5 a流域秋季降水处于上升阶段,湖水下降会有所减缓或者回升。     

Growth conditions of manganese nodules comparative studies of growth rate, magnetization, chemical composition and internal structure

Twenty-four manganese nodules from the surface of the sea floor and fifteen buried nodules were studied. With three exceptions, the nodules were collected from the area covered by Valdivia Cruise VA 04 some 1200 nautical miles southeast of Hawaii.Age determinations were made using the ionium method. In order to get a true reproduction of the activity distribution in the nodules, they were cut in half and placed for one month on nuclear emulsion plates to determine the α-activity of the ionium and its daughter products. Special methods of counting the α-tracks resolution to depth intervals of 0.125 mm. For the first time it was possible to resolve zones of rapid growth (impulse growth) with growth rates, s > 50 mm/10⁶ yr and interruptions in growth. With few exceptions the average rate of growth of all nodules was surprisingly uniform at 4–9 mm/¹⁰ yr. No growth could be recognized radioactively in the buried nodules. One exceptional nodule has had recent impulse growth and, in the material formed, the ionium is not yet in equilibrium with its daughter products. Individual layers in one nodule from the Indian Ocean could be dated and an average time interval of t = 2600±400 yr was necessary to form one layer. The alternation between iron and manganese-rich parts of the nodules was made visible by colour differences resulting from special treatment of cut surfaces with HCl vapour. The zones of slow growth of one nodule are relatively enriched in iron.Earlier attempts to find paleomagnetic reversals in manganese nodules have been continued. Despite considerable improvement in areal resolution, reversals were not detected in the nodules studied. Comparisons of the surface structure, microstructure in section and the radiometric dating show that there are erosion surfaces and growth surfaces on the outer surfaces of the manganese nodules. The formation of cracks in the nodules was studied in particular. The model of age-dependent nodule shrinkage and cracking surprisingly indicates that the nodules break after exceeding a certain age and/or size. Consequently, the breaking apart of manganese nodules is a continuous process not of catastrophic or discontinuous origin. The microstructure of the nodules exhibits differences in the mechanism of accretion and accretion rate of material, shortly referred to as accretion form. Thus non-directional growth inside the nodules as well as a directional growth may be observed. Those nodules with large accretion forms have grown faster than smaller ones. Consequently, parallel layers indicate slow growth. The upper surfaces of the nodules, protruding into the bottom water appear to be more prone to growth disturbances than the lower surfaces, immersed in the sediment. Features of some nodules show, that as they develop, they neither turned nor rolled. Yet unknown is the mechanism that keeps the nodules at the surface during continuous sedimentation. All in all, the nodules remain the objects of their own distinctive problems. The hope of using them as a kind of history book still seems to be very remote.     

Performance comparison of two biotic indices measuring the ecological status of water bodies in the Southern Baltic and Gulf of Lions

Two biotic indices, ATZI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) and Benthic Quality Index (BQI) have been recently introduced within the EC Water Framework Directive to assess the quality of marine habitats: both are based on sensitivity/tolerance classification and quantitative information on the composition of soft-bottom macrofauna. Their performance, especially with regard to sampling effort was assessed based on two data sets collected in Southern Baltic and one from the Gulf of Lions Mediterranean. AMBI was not affected by sampling effort but BQI was. Two modifications were proposed for BQI (i.e., BQI) (1) the removal of the scaling term (i.e., BQI(W)), and (2) the replacement of the scaling term by different scaling term (i.e., BQI(ES)). Both modified BQIs were largely independent of sampling effort. Variability was slightly lower for BQI(W) than for BQI(ES). BQI was highly correlated with BQI(W) and with BQI(ES) both in the Southern Baltic and in the Gulf of Lions. However, the proportions of stations, which were not attributed the same ecological quality status (EcoQ) when using BQI and its two modified forms were always high. Differences in ecological classification were mostly due to the scales used to infer EcoQ. Based on this study we recommend to use BQI(ES) in future studies because it apparently constitutes the best compromise in (1) being independent of sampling effort, (2) limiting the variability in computation in relation with sampling effort, (3) being correlated with BQI and corresponding EcoQ.     

近40 a青海湖流域逐日降水和气温变化特征

利用青海湖流域内刚察气象站1958～2001年的逐日降水和气温资料,分析了流域内的气候变化特征.结果表明,日降水量P≤5 mm的降水总量以9 mm/10 a的速率显著减少,已从1960s的130.8 mm/a减少为1990s的116.2 mm/a,而P≥20 mm的降水总量以9 mm/10 a的速率显著增加,已从29.7 mm/a增加为36.9 mm/a;连续无降水最长天数由1960s的32 d/a增加为1990s的45 d/a,至少10 d连续无降水总天数由103 d/a增加为145 d/a.逐年平均温度40 a来明显升高,已从1960s的-0.7℃升至1990s的0.1℃,且与逐年极端低温升高有较好相关性.1990s与1960s的同日平均气温相比,已有261 d变暖(占年天数的71.2%),且主要发生在冬季.这种气候变化特征对流域内的青海湖水位和河川径流有重要影响.     

近47 a来青海湖流域气候变化分析

选取青海湖流域内及临近7个气象站点,对各站1959～2005年的降水和气温数据采用泰森多边形法进行了计算,并运用Mann-Kendall方法对其变化趋势进行了分析,同时对流域近47 a的气候变化与青海湖水位变化做了相关分析.结果表明:①青海湖流域近47 a来降水存在明显的阶段性变化,20世纪60年代、80年代、90年代降水都呈上升的趋势,70年代为下降趋势;同时年、夏季降水有增加的趋势.②同时期气温存在显著的上升趋势,尤其是冬季增温显著,年变化倾向率达到0.53℃/10 a,1987～2000年与1961～1986年相比,平均气温增加了0.79 ℃,显著高于全国水平.③青海湖流域近47 a来春、夏、秋、冬陆面蒸发变化倾向率均为正值,夏季陆面蒸发增加趋势显著,年变化倾向率为4.17 mm/10 a.④流域降水量对湖水位的年变化、布哈河径流、沙柳河径流有着显著的影响;在9 a尺度上讲,未来5 a流域秋季降水处于上升阶段,湖水下降会有所减缓或者回升.     

A Triple‐Stack Column Procedure for Rapid Separation of Cu and Zn from Geological Samples

We present a new procedure for the separation and purification of Cu and Zn from geological samples. Our procedure employed a single pass, triple‐stack column set‐up. The first column, filled with TRU resin (TrisKem International), quantitatively removed Fe and Ti from sample matrices. A second column, filled with pre‐filter resin (TrisKem International), removed organic compounds. Finally, a third column, filled with anion exchange resin (AG1‐X8, 200–400 mesh, Bio‐Rad), was used to separate Cu and Zn from the remaining matrix. Our procedure required about 50% less acid volume than previously reported methods for Cu and Zn separation, thereby minimising analytical blanks and column running times. Copper and Zn stable isotope ratios were determined by a Thermo Neptune Plus MC‐ICP‐MS using Zn and Cu external normalisation, respectively, in addition to sample‐standard bracketing to correct for instrumental mass bias. We explore the inter‐calibration of Cu and Zn isotope fractionation coefficients during analysis by measuring mixed Cu–Zn solutions with enhanced mass bias variation generated by varying sample gas flow rates. Our results demonstrate that this procedure is useful when variation in instrumental mass bias throughout analytical sequences is insufficient to inter‐calibrate Cu and Zn fractionation coefficients.