Freezing as a method of sample preservation for the analysis of dissolved inorganic nutrients in seawater

It is often desirable or necessary to store collected seawater samples prior to analysis for dissolved inorganic nutrients. It is therefore important to establish preservation and storage techniques that will ensure sample integrity and will not alter the precision or accuracy of analysis. We have performed a series of experiments on the storage of nutrient samples collected at the oligotrophic North Pacific benchmark Station ALOHA, using both standard autoanalyses and low-level techniques. Our results reveal that for oligotrophic oceanic waters, the immediate freezing of an unfiltered water sample in a clean polyethylene bottle is a suitable preservation method. This procedure is simple, it avoids potentially contaminating sample manipulations and chemical additions, and it adequately preserves the concentrations of nitrate + nitrite, soluble reactive phosphate, and soluble reactive silicate within a single water sample.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Textural recognition of mudflow deposits

A plot of median grain size against quartile deviation (after Buller and McManus) can be used to distinguish mudflow deposits. A characteristic envelope for poorly sorted streamflow deposits is also defined. Unlike most other sediment transport mechanisms, mudflows appear to deposit sediments with sorting independent of median grain size.     

Stratigraphy and tectonics of a time-transgressive ophiolite obduction onto the eastern margin of the Pelagonian platform from Late Bathonian until Valanginian time,exemplified in northern Evvoia,Greece

The obduction of an ophiolite sheet onto the eastern Pelagonian carbonate platform complex of the Hellenides began during the Late Bathonian and ended with the final emplacement of the ophiolite during Valanginian time. The early stages of obduction caused subaerial exposure of the platform, recorded by an unconformity of Callovian age, which is marked by laterites overlying folded and faulted, karstic substrates. The laterites have distinct ophiolitic geochemical signatures, indicating that emergent ophiolite had been undergoing lateritic weathering. This unconformity coincides with widespread western Tethyan, Callovian gaps, indicating that the obduction in the Hellenides was probably related to far-reaching plate tectonic processes. Resumed gravitational pull and rollback of the subducted, oceanic leading edge of the temporarily exposed ophiolite. Platform drowning continued into Tithonian–Valanginian time, documented initially by reefal carbonates and then by below-CCD, carbonate-free radiolarian cherts and shales. Subsequently, siliciclastic turbidites, which apparently originated from uplifted Variscan basement, were deposited together with and over the radiolarite as the ophiolite nappe sheet advanced. The nappe substrate underwent tectonic deformations of varying intensity, while polymictic mélange and syntectonic sedimentary debris accreted beneath the ophiolite and at the nappe front. The provenience of the ophiolite nappe complexes of northern Evvoia most probably has to be looked for in the Vardar ocean.     

Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC

Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines reasons why it is important that Parties to the Agreement find ways to more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC. It describes how countries aiming to keep fossil fuel supply in line with Paris goals could articulate and report their actions within the current architecture of the Agreement. It also outlines specific mechanisms of the Paris Agreement through which issues related to the curtailment of fossil fuel supply can be addressed. Mapping out a transition away from fossil fuels – and facilitating this transition under the auspices of the UNFCCC process – can enhance the ambition and effectiveness of national and international climate mitigation efforts.

Key policy insights

• The international commitment to limit global average temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ provides a strong rationale for Parties to the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC to pursue a phase-down in fossil fuel production, not just consumption.

• Several countries have already made commitments to address fossil fuel supply, by agreeing to phase down coal or oil exploration and production.

• Integrating these commitments into the UNFCCC process would link them to global climate goals, and ensure they form part of a broader global effort to transition away from fossil fuels.

• The Paris Agreement provides a number of new opportunities for Parties to address fossil fuel production.

     

Cosmic-ray positrons: are there primary sources?

Galactic cosmic rays consist of primary and secondary particles. Primary cosmic rays are thought to be energized by first order Fermi acceleration processes at supernova shock fronts within our Galaxy. The cosmic rays that eventually reach the Earth from this source are mainly protons and atomic nuclei, but also include electrons. Secondary cosmic rays are created in collisions of primary particles with the diffuse interstellar gas. They are relatively rare but carry important information on the Galactic propagation of the primary particles. The secondary component includes a small fraction of antimatter particles, positrons and antiprotons. In addition, positrons and antiprotons may also come from unusual sources and possibly provide insight into new physics. For instance, the annihilation of heavy supersymmetric dark matter particles within the Galactic halo could lead to positrons or antiprotons with distinctive energy signatures. With the High-Energy Antimatter Telescope (HEAT) balloon-borne instrument, we have measured the abundances of positrons and electrons at energies between 1 and 50 GeV. The data suggest that indeed a small additional antimatter component may be present that cannot be explained by a purely secondary production mechanism. Here we describe the signature of the effect and discuss its possible origin.