Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.     

Effects of anthropogenic seawater acidification on acid-base balance in the sea urchin Psammechinus miliaris

The purple-tipped sea urchin, Psammechinus miliaris, was exposed to artificially acidified seawater treatments (pH(w) 6.16, 6.63 or 7.44) over a period of 8 days. Urchin mortality of 100% was observed at pH(w) 6.16 after 7 days and coincided with a pronounced hypercapnia in the coelomic fluid producing an irrecoverable acidosis. Coelomic fluid acid-base measures showed that an accumulation of CO(2) and a significant reduction in pH occurred in all treatments compared with controls. Bicarbonate buffering was employed in each case, reducing the resultant acidosis, but compensation was incomplete even under moderate environmental hypercapnia. Significant test dissolution was inferred from observable increases in the Mg(2+) concentration of the coelomic fluid under all pH treatments. We show that a chronic reduction of surface water pH to below 7.5 would be severely detrimental to the acid-base balance of this predominantly intertidal species; despite its ability to tolerate fluctuations in pCO(2) and pH in the rock pool environment. The absence of respiratory pigment (or any substantial protein in the coelomic fluid), a poor capacity for ionic regulation and dependency on a magnesium calcite test, make echinoids particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic acidification. Geological sequestration leaks may result in dramatic localised pH reductions, e.g. pH 5.8. P. miliaris is intolerant of pH 6.16 seawater and significant mortality is seen at pH 6.63.     

Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...     

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPI_JJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPI_SON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available.     

Diamondiferous peridotitic microxenoliths from the Diavik Diamond Mine, NT

Twenty-five diamonds recovered from 21 diamondiferous peridotitic micro-xenoliths from the A154 South and North kimberlite pipes at Diavik (Slave Craton) match the general peridotitic diamond production at this mine with respect to colour, carbon isotopic composition, and nitrogen concentrations and aggregation states. Based on garnet compositions, the majority of the diamondiferous microxenoliths is lherzolitic (G9) in paragenesis, in stark contrast to a predominantly harzburgitic (G10) inclusion paragenesis for the general diamond production. For garnet inclusions in diamonds from A154 South, the lherzolitic paragenesis, compared to the harzburgitic paragenesis, is distinctly lower in Cr content. For microxenolith garnets, however, Cr contents for garnets of both the parageneses are similar and match those of the harzburgitic inclusion garnets. Assuming that the microxenolith diamonds reflect a sample of the general diamond population, the abundant Cr-rich lherzolitic garnets formed via metasomatic overprinting of original harzburgitic diamond sources subsequent to diamond formation, conversion of original harzburgitic diamond sources occurred in the course of metasomatic overprint re-fertilization. Metasomatic overprinting after diamond formation is supported by the finding of a highly magnesian olivine inclusion (Fo₉₅) in a microxenolith diamond that clearly formed in a much more depleted environment than indicated by the composition of its microxenolith host. Chondrite normalized REE patterns of microxenolith garnets are predominantly sinusoidal, similar to observations for inclusion garnets. Sinusoidal REE_N patterns are interpreted to indicate a relatively mild metasomatic overprint through a highly fractionated (very high LREE/HREE) fluid. The predominance of such patterns may explain why the proposed metasomatic conversion of harzburgite to lherzolite appears to have had no destructive effect on diamond content. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Evaluating practical macrophyte control tools on small agricultural waterways in Canterbury,New Zealand

Excessive macrophytes can cause significant problems in agricultural waterways requiring active management. Conventional control techniques can have a range of adverse effects. We investigated several control tools in two experiments: firstly, we tested eight treatments at a small-scale (2?m?×?2?m). We found intensive hand weeding, weed mat and herbicide spraying to be effective treatments, reducing macrophyte cover to <5%. Hand weeding and weed mat immediately reduced cover, while dieback from herbicide took two months. Weed mat was a novel and effective control mechanism along stream banks. Secondly, we tested the impact of shading on macrophyte growth. Macrophyte growth was enhanced under partially shaded conditions, but with 80% effective shading over the entire channel, cover was reduced to 17%. Once treatments ceased, macrophytes grew back within 3–5 months. Long-term, control methods will require combinations of tools but will need to include optimal shading for the target species.     

Evaluating lacustrine groundwater discharge to a large glacial lake using regional scale radon-222 surveys and groundwater modelling

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) can be an important pathway for delivering pollutants to lakes but this pathway is often poorly characterized. Evaluating the potential impact of LGD on lake water quality requires understanding the magnitude and spatial variability of LGD, as well as understanding the age and flow paths of the discharging groundwater (e.g., recharge area, groundwater flow paths, and travel times). This study first compares LGD rates along two ~40 km shoreline lengths of a large glacial lake, Lake Simcoe, Canada, that were independently estimated via a radon-222 (²²²Rn) field survey and via regional scale groundwater-surface water modelling. Backward particle tracking analysis is then used to examine the age and flow paths of the LGD and thereby assess the potential for the LGD to deliver anthropogenic pollutants to the lake. The field and modelling results compare well with respect to the magnitude and spatial variability of LGD. However, the comparison highlights the need for well-defined hydrogeological characterization if regional scale models are to be applied for LGD estimation. The particle tracking analysis indicates large variation in the groundwater flow path lengths and travels times (>1000 years to <50 years) for LGD along the shoreline. This illustrates that the LGD along different shoreline areas has varying potential to deliver anthropogenic pollutants to the lake. The study findings demonstrate the benefits of comparing independent field measured and model-simulated LGD estimates, and moreover suggest that it may be possible, in some cases, to use existing regional scale groundwater-surface water models, purpose-built for other water resource and quality objectives, to conduct preliminary evaluation of LGD contributions to lakes. Preliminary model-based evaluation would enable field efforts aiming to quantify and manage LGD to be better targeted rather than relying solely on regional scale field techniques that are often highly resource intensive.